Judging Chances after TT *Spoiler*

donrhummy

According to Lance on twitter:

@levi_leipheimer was awesome and got 2nd and is 3rd on GC...which is perfectly placed. He's 40 secs back. Not too much. Last week here is very difficult with several summit finishes. Onward.

While I agree that Levi's ride was awesome, I don't see where he's going to make up the 40 seconds on guys like Menchov/DiLuca in the mountains. Menchov, *maybe* could have a bad day there but Di Luca flies in the mountains.

What does everyone else think? Does Menchov have enough time on Di Luca?

dulldave

I dunno. If there's a hairy descent somewhere in there we could see Menchov balls that up like on the Col de la Bonette. But I can't see Levi making much time on Di Luca.

jimycooper

what do people think about Basso's chances these days?

takethehighroad

I know it's an odd year but there's always the possibility of Di Luca cracking one day.

I'd say Basso needs a MAJOR change of tactics if he's gonna do anything this year. I've not seen much of the last week apart from (Blockhaus) and Vesuvius but getting his team to just roll up climbs at a fast pace won't shake Denis.

blazing_saddles

Stage 14 into Faenza is wicked. Just ask Steffano Garzelli what Gibo did to his pink jersey, back in 2003 on the same course.
Stage 15 finish is a Di Luca wet dream.
Stage 16: Man the lifeboats. Attacks from anywhere and everywhere.
Stage 17: Suckers to attack. Sastre too. Maybe DDL's achilles heel.
Stage 19: Go for an early eruption on one of the many lesser slopes.

Rabo to let every break go, so that LPR have to chase those bonus seconds.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Stage 19: Go for an early eruption on one of the many lesser slopes.
.

Congratulations on being the first poster to use the word 'eruption' in regard to stage 19. I sure there will be many more.

donrhummy

jimycooper wrote:

what do people think about Basso's chances these days?

I never understood why everyone was picking him to win this Giro. Even if he'd never doped, he still took TWO years off. That's a LONG time to come back and compete for a grand tour. Now add into that the fact that he'd previously doped (I don't believe he only prepared to dope) and (hopefully) isn't now, and there's no way he was going to win.

iainf72

Liquigas have 2 men in Top 10. They have some chances. If Franco goes the killer can go with him leaving someone else to chase.

As long as someone is prepared to go for it in the next few days it could be interesting. If what we've seen so far on the summit finishes is right, Levi is on his own

moray_gub

Menchov doesnt really have enough time to play it conservatively and mark in the mountains to come coz unfortunately for him he has DDL behind him and some of the stages to come are tailor made for the killer. I expect the Killer to have a right go in the days ahead and try and put Denny (copyright Phil and friend) under pressure.Levi has an outside shot if he can drop Menchov and Danilo but i dont see that happening. As for the rest i dont see any of them making the podium unless the top three have bad day.

moray_gub

jimycooper wrote:

what do people think about Basso's chances these days?

Well he is three minutes down as on GCso his chances of winning are pretty remote id say but ater effectively three years away he hasnt done too badly. But he is a million miles away from the rider 2006 Giro rider of course you can speculate as to the reasons why.

Quite Frankly

Denis Menchov 5/4
Danilo Di Luca 13/8
Levi Leipheimer 10/3
Ivan Basso 8/1
Franco Pellizotti 14/1
Carlos Sastre 16/1
Michael Rogers 50/1
Gilberto Simoni 80/1
Lance Armstrong 100/1

Latest odds

meagain

13/8 for me then.

iainf72

I just had a look at the remaining stages and there is plenty of change to make things very hard.

I think the thing is going to be the Di Luca and Menchov will probably be isolated now and then. So it will depend what happens then.

Top 7 within 3 minutes - How much did Sastre take on AdH last year? And that was one hill.

Kléber

Yes, there's all to play for. We've only just hit the halfway point and sizeable gaps can be opened up within the last week. I expect Di Luca to go down fighting, his finishing abilities should gather him bonus seconds but Menchov looks significantly more powerful. For me, the question is whether he is willing to attack and extend his lead because he's more a follower than a risk-taker. The same goes for Leipheimer who will now have to attack. Don't rule out Sastre and Pellizotti but for the time being they could well be spectators.

Bhima

Hmm... it's getting quite unpredictable...

There's another TT - the final stage. I think Levi could destroy Di Luca on that, although it's only 16km so it's questionable weather or not there will be enough distance for Levi to get a big enough gap.

The two of them are great descenders but i'd say Di Luca is a better climber, looking at what's happened this week. So, if Levi wants the overall win, he can't let Di Luca get away or it's all over! If Levi can match the other top GC guys until the final stage, or even attack, just to make sure, i'd say he has a chance of getting it. Maybe he wont be able to keep up though...

donrhummy

I think the key here is that the stages that can make a difference in GC are almost entirely in Di Luca's favor, but with menchov not too far behind. From what we've seen so far, Levi has a disadvantage in the mountains but who knows, he looked damn good in the 3rd week of the Vuelta.

Some key stages:

Stage 16:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg


Stage 17:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg


Stage 19:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg


And some important but less "key" stages that can have some impact if GC guys aren't careful:

Stage 21:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg


Stage 14:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg


Stage 15:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... lt_FIN.jpg

pb21

Well The Killer should get a few seconds on stage 14 by the look of the finish.

iainf72

pb21 wrote:

Well The Killer should get a few seconds on stage 14 by the look of the finish.

I reckon those stages will be harder than people expect.

Cumulonimbus

pb21 wrote:

Well The Killer should get a few seconds on stage 14 by the look of the finish.

Yes, will he get the extra bonus seconds from a stage win though? I cant imagine anyone else will want to bring the break back so his team might have to work harder than they would want to.

ACMadone

If Menchov's going to win this, he's going to have to do it the hard way. Have you seen any of his team anywhere near the front of the peloton so far?

micron

Sastre looked awfully good and, like Di Luca, he has the ability to attack and make it stick - and knows he can win a race that way.

Leipheimer will have expected to be in Pink with a handy cushion - with the race coming into Di Luca and Sastre's territory, whichever way you spin it, this won't be the way he would want the GC to look this evening.

Would love to have been at the Liquigas dinner table...

andrewgturnbull

Hi there.

This could be a re-run of Menchov v Heras in the Vuelta a few years ago...

Di Luca, just like Heras has a solid team and home advantage. Menchov, just like last time has no team to speak of.

From what I remember Menchov is impossible to drop on the climbs. Heras attacked repeatedly - like ten times - on one climb, but Menchov just dieseled his way back to him every time.

How did Heras get away in the end (don't mention the drugs)? He attacked on a descent then had two teammates up the road in the break to pull him to the finish.

Di Luca never misses a trick and has surely knows the Russian's weakness.

Cheers, Andy

SpaceJunk

andrewgturnbull wrote:

Hi there.

This could be a re-run of Menchov v Heras in the Vuelta a few years ago...

Di Luca, just like Heras has a solid team and home advantage. Menchov, just like last time has no team to speak of.

From what I remember Menchov is impossible to drop on the climbs. Heras attacked repeatedly - like ten times - on one climb, but Menchov just dieseled his way back to him every time.

How did Heras get away in the end (don't mention the drugs)? He attacked on a descent then had two teammates up the road in the break to pull him to the finish.

Di Luca never misses a trick and has surely knows the Russian's weakness.

Cheers, Andy

Are you referring to the Vuelta where Heras 'won' and then later was busted for doping?

Hmmm, Heras vs Menchov / DDL vs Menchov.

You might be onto something there

richard wants a baum

Looks like a Menchov/DLL/Levi show with Sastre still lurking but 2 and a bit minutes down is alot of time.

redbicycle

Menchov looks good for the win judging by how he's been climbing and his TT'ing abilities. DiLuca will need to gain valuable bonus seconds on stages or really take a gap on a stage finish 'cause I reckon Leipheimer will take a min. of 30s - 40s out of him in Rome - short stage or not, it's a flat, non-technical TT which is Levi's specialty and DiLuca's weakest point.

donrhummy

I wouldn't count Levi out (a grand tour is a LONG 3 weeks for the riders) but he's going to need a lot of good luck, amazing rides and some major help from Lance.

iainf72

donrhummy wrote:

I wouldn't count Levi out (a grand tour is a LONG 3 weeks for the riders) but he's going to need a lot of good luck, amazing rides and some major help from Lance.

5 out of the top 10 riders have won a grand tour before. And Levi isn't one of them. He has podiumed before, obviously, but that was generally when people were focused on Heras or Contador.

He's a good rider, especially for a week long race but getting past Di Luca or Mechov will be tough. The racing is also likely to be a lot more agressive in the next few days which will favour Di Luca.

Liquigas are bound to try something and they've appeared to be the strongest team in the mountains. So Franco and Ivan, get 'em to make it hard early this weekend.

ACMadone

iainf72 wrote:

donrhummy wrote:

I wouldn't count Levi out (a grand tour is a LONG 3 weeks for the riders) but he's going to need a lot of good luck, amazing rides and some major help from Lance.

We've got to bear in mind that Astana really haven't done any pulling on the front so far other than for 1 climb and we all know what they are capable of.

It's going to be an interesting last week for sure.

robthehungrymonkey

donrhummy wrote:

I wouldn't count Levi out (a grand tour is a LONG 3 weeks for the riders) but he's going to need a lot of good luck, amazing rides and some major help from Lance.

I'm intrigued to hear what you cycling fans think of my posers below...

To me it looks like LA is getting stronger as the Giro goes on, do you think he can cope with the length of it better? I.e. his time off and injury hampered him initially but as everyone else gets tired he's looking more competitive. Will this be a factor in in the GC (helping LEvi)?

Surely Sastre's 2 minutes is too much to make up?

Has Di Luca used up too much effort already? The stage win the other day was quite impressive.

What can Bradley wiggins acheive in the TDF if he carries on improving at the current rate?

(I've only really been following pro cycling for the past year, so forgive me if i'm talking rubbish!)

Quite Frankly

ACMadone wrote:

If Menchov's going to win this, he's going to have to do it the hard way. Have you seen any of his team anywhere near the front of the peloton so far?

Ten Dam (19th in GC) is always up there until one of the top 7 in GC attacks and he can't hold on. There's very little possible support other than him though.

Stage 16 looks to be the perfect stage to isolate Menchov early on the second to last climb of the day and then look to break him in the remaining kilometers (either on the hilly stuff or perhaps in Di Luca's case on the long descent from the top of Monte Catria to the bottom of Monte Petrano).

Quite Frankly

ACMadone wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

donrhummy wrote:

I wouldn't count Levi out (a grand tour is a LONG 3 weeks for the riders) but he's going to need a lot of good luck, amazing rides and some major help from Lance.

We've got to bear in mind that Astana really haven't done any pulling on the front so far other than for 1 climb and we all know what they are capable of.

It's going to be an interesting last week for sure.

If Horner was still around, at say 2.30 down on GC, then Astana would be a very serious threat indeed. I just don't think that Lance will have the legs in order for him to be able to provide major help to Levi in the last week.

We shouldn't rule out Levi though. He had a very strong third week in the Vuelta last year and I remember him finishing second, behind the Chicken but impressively ahead of Contador, on the 16th Stage of the 2007 Tour de France up the Col d'Aubisque.

We all remember what happened to the Chicken after that stage.