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Gustav Larsson's huge inexplicable power increase

KKspeederKKspeeder Posts: 111
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  • Murr XMurr X Posts: 258
    One hell of a ride!

    I just wish we got to see Levi's power data. :shock:

    Wondering what Greg Lemond is thinking about this. :D
  • DaveyLDaveyL Posts: 5,167
    I'd be interested to know, KK, what the ceiling is in terms of Wattage. For example, if my VO2max is X, how do you work out the maximum Watts, Y, I should be able to achieve naturally?
    Le Blaireau (1)
  • phil sphil s Posts: 1,128
    Is it an inexplicable power increase or have you just not been arsed to see if there's a reason for the power increase and are therefore sensationalising the story?
    -- Dirk Hofman Motorhomes --
  • phil s wrote:
    Is it an inexplicable power increase or have you just not been arsed to see if there's a reason for the power increase and are therefore sensationalising the story?

    His FTP was 400 at the start of the week, 400 watts.
    For that TT his FTP was now 470. The link is there, and if you go to Velonews.com you can read through all his power files. Its not some "conspiracy" bro.
  • DaveyLDaveyL Posts: 5,167
    KKspeeder wrote:

    His FTP was 400 at the start of the week, 400 watts.
    For that TT his FTP was now 470. The link is there, and if you go to Velonews.com you can read through all his power files. Its not some "conspiracy" bro.

    I assume you're just getting round to answering my question?
    Le Blaireau (1)
  • liversedgeliversedge Posts: 1,002
    you can do ftp tests all you like but there is nothing like competition to bring out your best. when you're up against the best in the world and supercharged then why not?

    if he was juicin do you really think he would share his data?
    --
    Obsessed is just a word elephants use to describe the dedicated. http://markliversedge.blogspot.com
  • Those of us who've trained with a power know just holding 350 watts for an hour is HUGE.

    470 is absolutely insane for FTP... Its a combination of what he started at (400) and finished at after the autologous blood refill (almost 500). :shock:
  • KKspeederKKspeeder Posts: 111
    edited February 2009
    DaveyL wrote:
    KKspeeder wrote:

    His FTP was 400 at the start of the week, 400 watts.
    For that TT his FTP was now 470. The link is there, and if you go to Velonews.com you can read through all his power files. Its not some "conspiracy" bro.

    I assume you're just getting round to answering my question?

    V02 max is the ceiling for all aerobic power because it is the maximal amount of oxygen the body can take in and assimilate per kilogram of bodyweight per minute. Now, you can train up VO2 max and US military studies have shown out of large samples of people that you can double your VO2 max from a totally out of shape untrained state if you were overweight and had sh*tty O2 delivery.

    Now, once you have been training for some time your VO2 max will be right close to your potential. But... Your sustainable power (always a percentage of VO2 max) will be lower than whats possible.

    What VO2 max can tell you is your potential for sustainable aerobic power output per kilogram of weight... Your body has whats called delta efficiency. Its the amount of watts your pushing on the bike divided by the watts your body expresses as heat.

    But... Your Funtional Threshold Power (max 1-hour sustained power) will always be governed by VO2 max. You will eventually hit the ceiling. Its like jumping on a trampoline, if you jump higher and higher eventually your head will hit the ceiling.
  • liversedgeliversedge Posts: 1,002
    His w/kg is in the range for a world class pro. An FTP of 350w for a 75kg rider is cat1/cat2 material.
    --
    Obsessed is just a word elephants use to describe the dedicated. http://markliversedge.blogspot.com
  • KKspeederKKspeeder Posts: 111
    edited February 2009
    liversedge wrote:
    you can do ftp tests all you like but there is nothing like competition to bring out your best. when you're up against the best in the world and supercharged then why not?

    if he was juicin do you really think he would share his data?



    Unless he's a freak and a re-tard for not autologous blood doping. If he doped, he would DOMINATE the Tour de France!

    Just look at the facts man.....

    You can get a high amount of total watts at FTP un-doped if you are a really big guy and have a really big VO2. But I cant see... If I remember correctly the highest a really big guy can get is about 420 watts totally clean and that is in a real freak of nature. (not doping.) And they will be over 190 pounds and low body fat to boot. 6 foot 4+ and 190+.

    And if you think thats peanuts YOU get on a bike and try to hold 420 watts for an hour strait. :P

    Past genetic freaks that battled for the Tour de France were wattage tested and LeMond even used the first SRM in 1990. He could hold about 390 watts at 150 pounds and he was a total freak with a super-freaky VO2 max of 92.5 off-season to boot.

    Get on the bike and see how long you can hold 390. :twisted:


    As I said I love the people that claim he's just a freak and un-doped. If he doped he would dominate the Tour like he was on a motorbike! It is no mystery that 20 MP power and FTP 1-hour/kilo power is what decides Grand Tours because they are time trialing and climbing long mountain grades... And if you have super high FTP your low intensity zones are going to be super high because you cant have a highe zone 4 without a high zone 1 and 2. You cant cheat numbers.

    I love the guys who are Lance fans and claim LeMond doped. Thats great, but how is Lance pressing 500+ watts when LeMond was doping at 390 with a 11 points higher un-doped off season VO2 max?
  • Look guys,

    Something does not add up. I'd like to believe some of the power data that has been provided is innacurate. If it is accurate, You simply do not get the kind of power increase he did from the Bonny Doon climb - to the TT a few days later. One has to simply LOOK at the data that is available. Look at his heart-rate/ wattage/ and length of effort from the Bonny Doon climb and compare it to the TT data. Either some part of this data is incorrect (garbage in garbage out) or he autologged/or some other "method". This is my humble opinion.
  • DaveyLDaveyL Posts: 5,167
    OK, so I've got a VO2max of 90. What should be the ceiling of my FTP that I should expect to reach?

    What about if my VO2max was 80?
    Le Blaireau (1)
  • James_LondonJames_London Posts: 530
    edited February 2009
    Guys you're completely misreading the data. His 30 min max NP on the stage on 16/02 was 450w so his TT number is not that different and you'd expect
    an ITT stage to be harder than a normal stage. His FTP obviously wasn't actually 400w at the beginning of the week, someone just had it down wrong. If his W/Kg at FTP are around 6.0, this is not out of the park for a good pro.

    I've no idea whether he's doped or not but nobody has provided anything here that indicates let alone proves that he does.
  • liversedgeliversedge Posts: 1,002
    KK - calm down dude. I've been collecting power data for 2 years - I know what these numbers feel like, no need to get tetchy. Just bear in mind the normative data Coggan lists on the training peaks site. 6 w/kg is not freaky - it is what world class pros do.

    Anyhoo - all we've got is data from a 30 min ride and a guesstimate from Hunter about his FTP. There is a reason that he is a pro and we're not :wink:
    --
    Obsessed is just a word elephants use to describe the dedicated. http://markliversedge.blogspot.com
  • DaveyL wrote:
    OK, so I've got a VO2max of 90. What should be the ceiling of my FTP that I should expect to reach?

    What about if my VO2max was 80?

    Nobody can answer that unless we know your bodyweight. Its total oxygen consumption V02 that determines power output potential.

    Example: Lance weighs 75kg and he did 6,000 ml for his VO2. His power output required to stimulate that amount of O2 was about 450 watts. He would never crack 80% of that for an ENTIRE HOUR! Nobody gets that high a percentage of VO2 max.

    Lance would never crack 370 watts. Even at 72kg IF he could get down to that he would never get better than 5.1 watts/kg for a full 60 minutes totally clean. And thats using his best ever VO2 max!

    Greg LeMond had a VO2 max of 92.5 freaky! And his sustainable power was about 390 watts. at 150 pounds.... Lets see... He won the Tour de France 3 times and he was World Champion twice (not including the U-23 worlds win in 1979 was it...)

    Yes, a typical cat 1 racer these day can hold 350 range IF they are a good TT rider. And NOT less than a couple guys are jacked through the roof. In fact... Not many go pro totally clean anymore. The elite amateurs are heavily doped much like some college sports...

    A freak talent like LeMond in todays time racing clean would never lap the senior cat 1-2 field as a 15 year old junior like he did in the 1970s...There are too many guys jacked on EPO. If he jacked EPO he might be able too. He probably wouldnt even win that many races clean. And I know guys that raced with LeMond and he could LAP the field solo as a yougster. The senior mens Pro 1/2 field. He would lap them by himself.

    Again, if somebody thingks 390 watts for AN ENTIRE HOUR is peanuts get on a bike and try it. :wink:
  • Well We have more data than just one 30 minute effort and what Hunter Allen said.

    Nonetheless, Re-looking at the data I would retract what I said, and say it is POSSIBLE for the data to all be correct AND no monkey business involved. What I found/find compelling is his heartrate/wattage on Bonny Doon Climb vs. heartrate/wattage for the TT. Maybe his unit was reading high for the TT? 6.1 wkg for 30 minutes is absolutely CRACKING if youre clean. All the lore of "6.8" and 7 watts per kilogram at threshold is HORSESHI!T. Whatever, Im over it. Hope theyre all clean , but fool me once, fool me twice,fool me 15 times ...
  • While it it feasible for a pro to produce that kind of power for a duration ~ 30-min, I would like confirmation that the power meter was calibrated and properly zeroed. They even admit that the data from an earlier stage was wrong since the zero offset was not properly set.

    There is no speed data from the file. With that I could have run a sanity check through my models.

    The altitude data shown is completely screwy but that's unrelated.

    And according to the file, he never coasted at any time, which is pretty impressive given the corners on the course. Or there's something wrong with the data.
  • DaveyL wrote:
    OK, so I've got a VO2max of 90. What should be the ceiling of my FTP that I should expect to reach?

    What about if my VO2max was 80?
    it would depend on:
    - your efficiency
    - the % of VO2 Max you could sustain in a long TT effort

    everyone is different on both counts (well all 3 if you include VO2 Max).

    hence someone with a lower relative VO2 Max than his mate can still have a higher FTP (W/kg) than his mate.
  • you can work it out of course, given that 1 litre of O2 equates to 20.9kJ.

    e.g. a 70kg rider with a VO2 Max of 80ml/kg/min; 23% efficient and can sustain 90% of VO2 Max in a TT, will have an FTP ~ 405W at 5.77W/kg

    His mate, who weighs the same but has a higher VO2 Max of 90 ml/kg/min; was 21% efficient and could sustain 88% of VO2 Max in a TT, would have the same FTP.

    I'm not saying those numbers are typical (a VO2 Max of 90 is exceptionally high) but it just goes to show that you can't equate TT power from VO2 Max alone.
  • Well We have more data than just one 30 minute effort and what Hunter Allen said.

    Nonetheless, Re-looking at the data I would retract what I said, and say it is POSSIBLE for the data to all be correct AND no monkey business involved. What I found/find compelling is his heartrate/wattage on Bonny Doon Climb vs. heartrate/wattage for the TT. Maybe his unit was reading high for the TT? 6.1 wkg for 30 minutes is absolutely CRACKING if youre clean. All the lore of "6.8" and 7 watts per kilogram at threshold is HORSESHI!T. Whatever, Im over it. Hope theyre all clean , but fool me once, fool me twice,fool me 15 times ...

    Bro, Greg LeMond (winner of Tour de France 1986, 1989, 1990) was wattage tested and used the first SRM in 1990. And... He could "only" hold about 390 watts for an entire hour at 67.2 kg. He had 5.8 watts per kilo bro. There is NO WAY all these guys are doing over 5.8 NO WAY. That takes a 95 VO2 max and NO ONE is testing that high because if they did a VO2 max test jacked (like cadel Evans and Stuart O'Grady did) everyone would know they are jacked through the roof.

    The clinical approval of EPO happend in 1991 and thats when everybody started going to the pharmacy in Switzerland and buying r-EPO for themselves!

    Upon the EPO tests being utilized in 2001, the top teams began blood doping. Upon the homologous blood transfusion test being implimented in 2004, the began Autologous blood doping with their own blood instead of other peoples blood. And... This is where we are today. And Hamilton was not the last to be busted, because teams will use the SAME centrifuge on their athletes.

    So yes, Vinokourov's positive was from one of his teamates blood getting mixed in with his.

    EVERY kind of doping you can do is peanuts compared to jacking your hematocrit percent (oxygen carrying red blood cells).

    Now, Alex Simmons brought up a good point about how the dudes Power Meter might have had calibration problems, MIGHT HAVE. We dont know if he pedaled the whole way or not... He is an expert TT rider and when I was watching Lance do that TT Lance never stopped pedaling even in the corners going up to the hill. It really does depend on what percentage the power meter COULD have been off by.

    But to me, the guy was jacked.

    The standard practice at elite level cycling the last 18 years has been blood boosting. Dont believe me? Guys have been testing positive the WHOLE WAY THOUGH and they still have not "gotten it" yet? If its possible to even ride clean then they would stop testing positive!

    Testing only for EPO ruins the Tour because everybody has to try and Autologous blood dope and it ruins the competitions when some teams cant do it. THey fall behind!
  • Guys, Today Gustav normalized 471 watts in the first 30 minutes. You have to be jacked to normalize 387 watts over 3.5 hours.

    He hit zero watts more times than I can count...

    http://www.velonews.com/photo/88447
  • Plenty of top pro riders have recorded 6W/kg for durations of 20-30 minutes, there is nothing in these numbers that presumes doping.

    A rider with a VO2 Max of 85ml/kg/min, who is able to ride at 90% VO2 Max in a TT and has an efficiency of 23% would be capable of riding at >6.1 W/kg in a TT.
  • Alex_Simmons/RSTAlex_Simmons/RST Posts: 4,161
    edited February 2009
    KKspeeder wrote:
    Guys, Today Gustav normalized 471 watts in the first 30 minutes. You have to be jacked to normalize 387 watts over 3.5 hours.

    He hit zero watts more times than I can count...

    http://www.velonews.com/photo/88447
    Well for one you have your 30-min number is wrong.

    The first 30-min (after neutral) his NP was 438W or 93% of his 1-hr power. Hardly earth shattering.

    Edit: I can see where you got that impression from the ride commentary. He did have a 30-min period with an NP of 471W (=threshold) but it was about 10-min after the neutral. Even so, NP at threshold for 30-min when the race is going off, again not earth shattering. I've had a 30-min NP/FTP ratio much higher than from a race.

    Normalised Power of 387W for 3.5 hrs at an Intensity Factor of 0.82 (ratio of NP to 1-hr TT power). Sounds pretty reasonable to me, if anything a good solid training ride. I have an athlete who did 0.87 IF for 3.5 hrs on the weekend.

    And what has hitting zero watts often got to do with anything?
    Looking at the file there were a few hills to fly down.

    His Average Power was 306W, given that's 79% of his NP, it indicates a highly variable effort through the race, which is not uncommon in races on hilly terrain.
  • And by the way, it has been established that Larsson's previous FTP was significantly underestimated as the data they had leading up to the race did not contain any specific TT test efforts. This was his first serious outing with the meter on board.
  • KKspeederKKspeeder Posts: 111
    edited February 2009
    If normalizing 385 for 3.5 hours seems reasonable to you Alex Simmons than carry on with the autologous blood doping appologies!

    Bring on the 900cc packed blood refills!
  • Plenty of top pro riders have recorded 6W/kg for durations of 20-30 minutes, there is nothing in these numbers that presumes doping.

    A rider with a VO2 Max of 85ml/kg/min, who is able to ride at 90% VO2 Max in a TT and has an efficiency of 23% would be capable of riding at >6.1 W/kg in a TT.

    An 85 VO2 max is 6.2 w/kg AT VO2 max with 23% delta! 460 watts at 23% with 74 kilos for example.

    5 minutes at 6.1 wkg at BEST! Maybe 5.1 or 5.2 at FTP with super-good training!

    Plenty of Fuentes clients have done 6.1 w/gk for 30 minutes though. Like Frank Schleck of Saxo Bank!

    Good day Alex Simmons, keep up the Autologous blood doping appologies and cover ups!
  • Murr XMurr X Posts: 258
    KKspeeder wrote:
    An 85 VO2 max is 6.2 w/kg AT VO2 max with 23% delta! 460 watts at 23% with 74 kilos for example.

    5 minutes at 6.1 wkg at BEST! Maybe 5.1 or 5.2 at FTP with super-good training!
    KK, would a V02 of above 85 really be needed to hold 5.3W/kg at 62kg? Its just as I said before it was tested years ago at 66 and although admittedly I was not as nearly as well trained as when I was at 330W (FTP at 62kg), I had still been training and racing for some time.

    Thanks
  • I'd be interested in what KK or Alex make of my unimpressive numbers. I am a UK based rider, currently a 3rd cat. Do well enough in most 2/3/4 races and can usually muster a top 3 in most of the end of season hill climb races.

    My lab tested VO2 max was 65 last season. I weigh 72.7kg and my current FTP is showing as 300 Watts. (4.1 w/kg)

    Based on the knowledge of you 2 chaps, what do you reckon is a realistic upper end that I can get my FTP to, given my VO2 max.
    What would be my genetic limitations?
  • KKspeeder wrote:
    Plenty of top pro riders have recorded 6W/kg for durations of 20-30 minutes, there is nothing in these numbers that presumes doping.

    A rider with a VO2 Max of 85ml/kg/min, who is able to ride at 90% VO2 Max in a TT and has an efficiency of 23% would be capable of riding at >6.1 W/kg in a TT.

    An 85 VO2 max is 6.2 w/kg AT VO2 max with 23% delta! 460 watts at 23% with 74 kilos for example.

    5 minutes at 6.1 wkg at BEST! Maybe 5.1 or 5.2 at FTP with super-good training!

    Plenty of Fuentes clients have done 6.1 w/gk for 30 minutes though. Like Frank Schleck of Saxo Bank!

    Good day Alex Simmons, keep up the Autologous blood doping appologies and cover ups!
    Whatever you do - do not, for one moment, ever make accusations about me with respect to doping, doping cover ups or the like. If that is your intent, then you can go crawl back under the rock from which you came.

    If a rider is doping, I hope he is caught and dealt with appropriately. But I see nothing in the data posted to prove it.

    I have a (completely clean) masters age athlete I coach who is 5 W/kg FTP. He'd be higher but a full time labouring job keeps his training time to modest levels.

    5.1 or 5.2 is definitely not Pro material I'm afraid. Indeed that's about what a really good domestic Pro woman could do.

    Perhaps you'd care to share how you are calculating power from VO2 Max.
    At 23% efficiency, I calculate 504watts at VO2 Max of 85ml/kg/min and 74kg.

    And Larsson BTW is 80kg which for same assumptions = 545 watts.
  • celbianchi wrote:
    I'd be interested in what KK or Alex make of my unimpressive numbers. I am a UK based rider, currently a 3rd cat. Do well enough in most 2/3/4 races and can usually muster a top 3 in most of the end of season hill climb races.

    My lab tested VO2 max was 65 last season. I weigh 72.7kg and my current FTP is showing as 300 Watts. (4.1 w/kg)

    Based on the knowledge of you 2 chaps, what do you reckon is a realistic upper end that I can get my FTP to, given my VO2 max.
    What would be my genetic limitations?
    Well if you had both good efficiency (say 24%) and could sustain a high % of VO2 Max at threshold (say 90%), then a VO2max of 65 could potentially see an FTP of >4.8W/kg. But having all those ducks lined up in a row is the trick ;) But there is certainly potential to push FTP higher than you are at presently.
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