US Politics / Biden thread
Comments
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Would be genuinely interested to know why you feel she is unimpressive.
Hired as a Deputy DA in California after her law degree. Then recruited as an ADA in San Francisco, then became Chief of the Career Criminial division. Moved on to City Hall amd ran Children and Family Services Division.
Elected as the first black woman as District Attorney of San Francisco. Then Elected as Attorney General of California, the first woman, first African American and first South Asian American to hold the post. By all accounts she had a pretty good track record in prosections, reducing crime and setting up a range of new divisions such as those tackling hate crimes.
Then elected US Senator and VP of the United States of America.
You don't compile a career like this unless you are a pretty impressive person. To do so as a woman of mixed heritage, I would suspect, is even harder to do.
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I think that might have more to do with how Trump has infected a lot of minds and how the media is downplaying/normalising Trump's lunacy & addled brain. If Harris said just one of the word-salad statements he made (say on childcare), she'd be roasted. I think he genuinely can't remember what he said ten seconds before.
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“Well, I would do that, and we’re sitting down. You know, I was somebody — we had, Senator Marco Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka, was so impactful on that issue. It’s a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about — that, because look, child care is child care, couldn’t — you know, there’s something — you have to have it in this country. You have to have it.
But when you talk about those numbers, compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to. But they’ll get used to it very quickly. And it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us. But they’ll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we’re talking about, including child care, that it’s going to take care. We’re going to have, I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with the reductions that I told you about on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country.
Because I have to stay with child care. I want to stay with child care. But those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I’m talking about, including growth, but growth also headed up by what the plan is that I just — that I just told you about. We’re going to be taking in trillions of dollars. And as much as child care is talked about as being expensive, it’s, relatively speaking, not very expensive compared to the kind of numbers we will be taking in. We’re going to make this into an incredible country that can afford to take care of its people.
And then we’ll worry about the rest of the world. Let’s help other people. But we’re going to take care of our country first. This is about America first. It’s about make America great again. We have to do it because right now, we’re a failing nation. So we’ll take care of it. Thank you. Very good question. Thank you.”
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All the polling I have seen has it 1-2% either way, so basically evens within the margin of error. From where Biden was, she has got herself into a competitive position.
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Sure, but I still find the whole thing as nuts as Trump. Half a nation has lost its mind, and if they are still not seeing him for what he is, I'm not sure that any candidate would swing it decisively: white guy misses the black vote; Jewish guy loses the Muslim vote; female of any colour loses the macho man vote. But a criminal, coup-inducing, charity-stealing lying rapist... yep, he's the one.
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The debate is on channel 4 in the early hours of Wednesday morning if anyone is interested enough.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
The Silver chart is about probability of winning, not the poll. It is very much around how she is doing in the swing states where her position has deteriorated.
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She's got an impressive record of moving up through the Democratic party, it's true.
As a public speaker, she's unfortunately just not convincing. This doesn't necessarily stop you from ascending to the highest office's, as we've seen in the UK, but it is an important part of the job.
Again, the other options avaliable as candidates were a completely unhinged imbecile and someone who seems like he was always in between naps, so she is absolutely stellar.
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It's just polling with extra post processing, and whilst that is probably what is required for the notoriously difficult to model American election, it doesn't necessarily mean they've baked in the correct assumptions.
We also seem back at this idea that Trumps failings are so obvious that it should be an easy win. It's like the last two elections never happened!
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What if the electorate want an incompetent, incoherent moron? Do you play down to that level just to get elected? You’ve said that people get the Government they deserve, it looks like that will be the case in the US with their President - they have a clear choice.
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I agree that public speaking is an important part of the job, and I can see why people find Harris and most politicians unconvincing. It is a personal thing, but I find very few people to be genuinely good at public speaking, by that I mean inspiring confidence or even loyalty to what they are saying. Might just be me though.
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Gotta win. Doesn't matter. It's all irrelevant if you don't win.
Especially given what the Republicans have planned.
The rest is just burying your head in the sand.
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I was listening to an American couple being interviewed, both lifelong Republicans who hate Trump and have lost friends and family because they won't vote for him. They were making the point that it is more the fact that Trump has reignited this ultra conservative religious right wing sentiment that lies under the current for many Americans, and they feel legitimised in publicly espousing these views again (essentially the cult effect you have mentioned before BT). It feels like a similar principle to Brexit which gave licence to some to start expressing the worst aspects of English exceptionalism again.
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Gotta stop listening to people who agree with you, and listen to the people who aren't mental who really like trump.
Plenty of those around. They really loathe the culture warsy stuff - they really crucify the Dems on that, and they see Harris as at the apex of that.
Harris was billed at the time she became VC as the diversity hire - that has stuck and people don't like the connotations that comes with it.
Who cares about republicans who won't vote Trump - polls say plenty will.
I feel like everyone who's not Trumpian in america is just sitting there with their fingers crossed. Do they not understand the consequences of Trump round two? They are very organised this time round.
The behaviour does not match the stakes. I learned from Brexit - hoping is not enough.
Increasingly convinced that Harris is not the right person. She is not a proper leader, her image is too toxic to too many Americans. I don't see it happening. This should be comfortable.
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"Increasingly convinced that Harris is not the right person. She is not a proper leader, her image is too toxic to too many Americans. I don't see it happening. This should be comfortable."
They are not going to change her out this close. They are stuck with her. Anything else is wishful thinking.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I agree with that, but it was more about the insight this couple gave into your average Trump voter as they know lots of them. As many of us have suggested, all the horrendous stuff Trump has done is immaterial and does not work against him as it is not really about Trump. In a way he is just the cipher through which all this conservative Christian right wing lunacy manifests itself and makes people feel validated in their beliefs.
I agree, millions of Americans will vote Trump, but not really because of Donald Tump but because they feel he represents this slightly dormant idea of what America should be i.e. white Christian fundamentalist. They aren't interested in democracy or a culturally and socially united America, they want to go back to the 19th Century.
I am not hoping Harris will win or relying on people seeing sense, I know it will be close but I think on balance the rejection of Trump 4 years ago highlighted that there are slightly (only very slightly) more Americans that will vote against him rather than for.
I get the parallels with Brexit, but I think it is different. Remain were lazy, no real thoughts that we might vote to leave and pretty much zero campaigning and complete apathy. I don't think this is the case with the Dems. They have a huge war chest and Harris/Walz and all the party are out stumping and campaigning across all the key states. Of course that does not guarantee a win but I don't think they are taking anything for granted.
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Serious question though, if Trump has this huge loyal following and a well organised cabal of mega wealthy right wing nuts backing him and writing the playbook (which he does), which Democrat would have beat him comfortably (or by any margin assuming a theoretical Harris loss)?
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So I don’t have deep knowledge of the dems so can’t profess to know the alternatives but all along Harris has been divisive in the US, fairly or not.
I think being a woman is a hindrance in a US presidential race. There seem to be plenty of more articulate people in the party with less culture wars baggage. Especially as people are unhappy with the economy which is easy to hang around the #2 of the Biden administration.
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Nobody immediately springs to my mind, all the big hitters have drawbacks for the US electorate. I don't necessarily think Harris was the mistake. I think the mistake was in not prepping for this 4 years ago. My (incorrect) assumption was that Biden would only ever stand for one term and that Harris was being prepped as the incumbent. They could easily have spent plenty of time positioning her as the de facto next President, and if it had become apparent she would be unlikely to win, started looking for viable candidates well in advance.
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At this moment, any Democrat who is winning in a red/swing state would have been good. Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer. But they'd all have needed time to get name recognition.
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Hang on, don't you keep on telling us how wonderful the US economy is?
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Yeah, there's a reason it's called a "vibeseccion".
It's actually really interesting how well they're doing versus sentiment - and there are a tonne of studies coming out about it.
There seems to be a consensus building around the public irrationally disliking inflation, or to put it another way, high inflation, even with high wage growth, makes people feel significantly poorer than they actually are.
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I think that is the key, whether Harris or one of those you have mentioned, they have not made preparations over the last 18 months or so to get them known. Obviously this was because Biden was seen as the presumptive nominee, but with his age and the chances of his not being fit for a second term, this was incredibly bad planning.
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The debt Rick, the enormous debt they're are paying huge amounts in interest on!?
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Not often I agree with Rick but the Harris' ONLY quality is she isn't Trump. And people hope that that will be enough.
She was the diversity hire and didn't get the VP job on merit. Biden pledged to appoint a woman and I suppose her colour was a bonus.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/joe-biden-vp-woman-female-running-mate
People used to mock G W Bush for his mangled oration but he was Churchillian in comparison to Harris. Google Harris word salad and take your pick.
The best hope is that Trump loses, Harris is helped not to fuck things up in the next term and in 4 years time both parties can find 2 proper candidates and things get normalised. I'm not confident of any of those things coming to pass tbh.
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