2024 Election thread

Depending on which MRP you look at, the LibDems might be breathing down Trott's neck, so I guess you need all the help you can get 🙂

This is where the label 'Fib Dums' seems to be quite true as both the polls I looked at have them in third place behind Labour, but their election material claims that 'Labour can't win here'. So they can't either 😊

Talking of fibs, you persuaded your daughter it wasn't worth voting when the best prediction for the Tories is a lean hold.

There are also a few polls showing the Lib Dems could be the best tactical vote for ABC voters. That could work in the Tories' favour with no clear tactical vote for them to get behind.

https://tactical.vote/sevenoaks/

The recommendation appears to be 'campaign elsewhere as you're wasting your time here, lefties'. Which is along the lines of what I said to a rather optimistic Labour canvasser last week 😇

There are a lot more than two MRP seat predictions. Quite a lot of variation due to all the new marginals.

Had conversation with a good friend and LD campaigner about this last time round. In her constiuency LDs are the clear tactical vote for lefties, but graphics were way off (underplaying Lab & Greens and ignoring recent shifts). Anti-tories there tend to be highly educated tofu-eating wokerati*, so misrepresenting data doesn't do LDs any favours. Her response was that this crap comes down from central office.

*possibly me

Is there any other sort of anti-Tory? If you spend a lot of time in Cake Stop it can be hard to see otherwise 😄

I've just been moved into a different constituency due to boundary changes. The current majority is only 2000 over the Conservatives, prior to that it was 8000 and 5000 (against the thick as mince Tory candidate who is now in the Welsh Senedd), 2010 Lib Dems were second by less than 2000. It's been Labour since it was created in 1983 but the majority has varied from 1650 to 13500 so it's not quite voting for a dog with a red rosette territory. My previous constituency was quite similar but was Conservative for the first election after it was formed in 1983. Quite surprising considering it represents a large former steel town that you would think would be rock solid red.

You've been a good soldier

You can rest now.

Well at least you aren't in ostrich mode.

Is this another one of your things that "some people on here" say but you can never find any actual examples?

There are still Brexit deniers around, plus several past claims that the result was invalid for a number of 'reasons', such as it the result down to lies by the leave campaign, people were too thick to understand the issues or it should have required a 2/3 majority. That sort of thing. But I prefer not to point fingers.

Like I said: no actual examples, just "some people".

Was just looking at Electoral Calculus's profile of my constituency. There's a demographics section - I appear to be almost exactly typical for the constituency (bar Leave voting tendency). Out of curiosity I also looked up Sevenoaks and under the demographics section it basically just says Stevo.