2024 Election thread

I think it will be closer than the above. Not close but closer. A 100+ seat majority would be huge.

Bristol and Clacton.

It's instructive as to how far into their own territory the Tories are defending, that their messaging is tailored to voters freaked out about Rayner.

That's just nuts. I thought it was a joke to start with. Even the Liberals who frequent here are deathly silent. They need a new leader and some kind of positive direction.

One thing that seems to have been lost in all the discussion, both in media outlets and general public discourse is how spectacularly things have turned around in 4-5 years. After 2019, the general consensus amongst politicos was that Labour would need 2-3 parliaments to even consider making a realistic challenge for govt. Obviously, the factors that have gone into such a huge and swift turnaround are clear, but I would be interested to see some analysis on what this really tells us about the shift in political and cultural attitudes in the UK?

Particularly when we have seen the USA still beholden to Trump and the far right spread amongst the EU. A Labour victory is clearly largely directed at a desire to get rid of the Tories, but does it also show a rejection of hard right policies that the Tories have been pushing since Brexit? Do people now want a return to a more Socialist stance on funding of pubic services? Have we now completely rejected any notion of a Brexit 'benefit'? Do the majority want more flex around issues like immigration etc.

I guess I am getting at whether or not a Labour victory signals a seismic shift away from the divisive politics that largely stemmed from Brexit back towards something that is a bit more conciliatory?

I think winning elections in the UK is all about capturing the centre ground whilst keeping your base motivated.

Kier has shamelessly tried to capture the centre ground, Rishi has made a mess of appealing to the right.

I think the issue with framing everything as left and right is that everyone's reference point is different. I'd argue that in general, the UK population is surprisingly left wing, in terms of not wanting the small state that is the dream of a lot of American right wingers. However, I do think both parties ignore immigration at their peril.

I'm still convinced there's a reasonable argument, that if Boris genuinely* apologised when party gate broke and came back with a new haircut, he'd still be PM

I do think you are right about the centre ground, and when we do start to veer away in either direction, the electorate generally tends to get rather nervy eventually and slowly move back to the middle ground. Interesting take that we are largely left wing with regards a desire for a larger govt. My personal view is that the desire for much bigger public spending has been a big factor in the turnaround (whether Labour do that is a different matter!), as I agree that we are far less inclined towards the US dreams of small state.

This is where my thinking sits as well, I think the Tories got away with dipping a very large populist toe in the water with a lot of post May policy making and people have now woken up to the reality of what populism actually means in terms of governing (essentially you get nothing delivered!).

I guess the big call is whether or not the Tories can return to the centre right vacuum they themselves have created, or will they lurch further right (50/50 call at present I suspect).

France looks like it is heading that way.

He didn't get sacked for partygate though. It was another straw that broke the camel's back, and that would have come anyway.

I think it is easy to imagine that in a world without covid he would still be PM. I also think any PM that governed during covid would have a shorter time in power. I have done absolutely no research, but for example, Jacinda Ardern is no longer PM.

Small correction - the SNP aren't left leaning as such. They lean whichever way the wind blows, to garner support for a single policy.

Right now, the Scottish electorate are erring left, so whatdya know, the chameleonic SNPs are waiting with open arms. Their deputy leader is socially extremely conservice and her economic policies centre right. But the greater good is to ignore fundamental political differences for the greater goal. After which, all bets are off.

A brief diversion if you don't mind. Wouldn't the SNP become redundant post independence?

It's almost in their personal interests to fail. 🤣

This is the bit that worries me. I haven't seen much fight from the centrist 'One Nation' Tory types. I could well envisage a scenario where the Braverman et al wing take over the Tory party name and became the de facto opposition power. If Farage wins a seat and there is behind the scenes deal making with him in the frame as well, it could be a terrible outcome.

I think the loonie right are almost certain to take over for a while at least, because the big groundswells in support seem to go with the top good to be true offerings, like Reform. Reform itself will blow itself out, leaving the Tories further right. Has happened on e with UKIP, let's face it.

Unclear if the Tories will then drift centrist or how long that would take.