Tour de France Favourite

campagchris
campagchris Posts: 773
edited November 2012 in Pro race
Well who is going to be favourite for the Tour now.After both Valverde and Vinokourov blew sky high today.
Looking forward to the tour of Switzerland to see if anyone looks like winning from there.
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Comments

  • Echappee
    Echappee Posts: 79
    Very difficult to call. I think its wide open. I was thinking about Leipheimer today. He can climb and Time trial and has got some good experience.
  • Spiralpro
    Spiralpro Posts: 34
    I'm sticking with Vino. Valverde...maybe but I feel he needs to gain more TdF experience. He hasn't finished the race yet and that worries me.
  • campagchris
    campagchris Posts: 773
    Menchov could be an outside bet,but Im waiting to see how well Vladimir Karpets goes in tour de suisse,also Dekker as there could be a major upset this year I think.
    I notice in the mags tour supplement Roche thinks cunego could win it.
  • Spiralpro
    Spiralpro Posts: 34
    He seemed to have enough left after the giro. Is he actually riding the tour? Last I heard, it was depending on how he did/felt after the giro. From what I've seen he should be well up for the tour.
  • campagchris
    campagchris Posts: 773
    He's down for the tour de suisse so would imagine he must be thinking about it
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    I will be pulling for Leipheimer. He needs to nail his TT's or he won't even make the podium. I think if Levi is on his game - he'll win it. If he isn't, he won't even place top ten. If that happens - Vino takes it all.
    ( I will be secretly cheering for Zabriskie and Voekler as well!!)

    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • OffTheBackAdam
    OffTheBackAdam Posts: 1,869
    Most open race for years, and not just because there's no LA to cower the opposition.
    Valverde always has a "bad day", if it's in the mountains, he's stuffed. Vino I wouldn't write off, we're still 3 weeks from the Tour, 4 from the mountains, so he might not be quite on top form.
    Anyone fancy Di Luca doing the double? He was always there in the Giro.
    What I will be willing to bet on, is that the winner won't be French! (Or Belgian for that matter).

    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    I thought Diluca was going to sit the tour out - as is Cunego.

    The only standouts to me are Vino and Levi. Other than that it is wide open. There are many who could go all the way (provided Vino and Levi, and their teams have a bad tour).

    For instance, look down CSC's lineup. Schleck, Sastre, Voigt - and long shot, but still a possibility Zabriskie.
    Then we have Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov, Velverde, Kloden, Contador, and many more on the 'if the standouts have a bad tour, they can make a dream come true' level. (Do you like that? I just made that level up!).

    I love that this is an open tour. Yes, I admit, I did like watching Armstrong and the Blue Train - I loved the meticulousness of the ride, I loved the reliability of the racing and the predictability of the tacticts.
    But, I also love (and hate) that I have no idea what is going to happen at this years tour. It is an open book.

    I am not sure if I answered the question - anyone could throw names out there, but I really think it all comes down to how strong Vino and his team are, and how strong Levi and his team are.
    And frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing those 2 battle it out till the end - with only a few seconds between them. Then every stage will be a nail biter.

    I can't wait for the Tour. But, first the rest of the Daupine, and the start of the Tour de Swiss!

    Have a great day everyone.

    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • funaki
    funaki Posts: 29
    Glad to see someone keeping an eye on young Contador. Luis Leon Sanchez may also show well
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    I would love to see Contador in the white jersey, if not through out the tour, at least in Paris.

    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • funaki
    funaki Posts: 29
    I guess Vino has to start as the favourite, he certainly has a lot of support. Strange how our Kazach friend blows hot and cold. If i remember rightly he dropped 5 mins on a mountain stage in the Vuelta and then spent the last week blowing all and sundry away.

    At least there is a degree of uncertainty over the result of this years TDF, i must say i prefer that to the certainty of all the Tour de Lance years.
  • Spiralpro
    Spiralpro Posts: 34
    Just looking at cyclingnews looks like Valverde is out of the Tour, he's sick...
  • alanmcn1
    alanmcn1 Posts: 531
    I think Kloeden has to be favourtie. He's the only guy riding within himself at moment and hasnt had much to say. Vino will be there but isnt strong enough to be up there every mountain stage in the tour. Big difference from Vuelta! Dare I say it, but Valverde is struggling without his Injections?. I think the dangers to Kloeden are Zabriskie (riding very strong) Franck Schleck (TTs a problem) and Mick Rogers!
    Robert Millar for knighthood
  • Milram-fan
    Milram-fan Posts: 33
    I think it's gonna be Vinokourov despite what happened at Ventoux yesterday. He's probably got the most creditentials and experience - he knows what's needed to win a grand tour. If anything is going to be his downfall it could in-team politics and mind games with kloeden in the team.
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    Tom Danielson out of the Tour (on going stomach ailments).

    Valverde out of the Tour (stomach problems)

    Eusebio Unzue stated Hincapie had the same stomach ailments as Valverde - something might be going around the peloton.

    Cyclingnews stating that Periero doubtful for Tour.

    They're dropping like flys.

    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    Correction - Valverde will be a the tour.
    Basso, however, won't be the tour this year, or next year.

    And so concludes your daily tour participant update.



    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • esmit208
    esmit208 Posts: 41
    I will hold my prediction. One thing is sure though, it will be one helluva wide open race. Caisse D'Pargne---CSC---Saunier Duval and possibbly Liquigas have riders that can stand on the Champs Elysses though. Wish I could say the same for Discovery but they don't even seem to have a real leader. Levi has lots of heart but I don't believe he can withstand the pressure for 21 days. I will get back to you with my prediction before the start in London.

    Edward G. Smith
    Edward G. Smith
  • Spiralpro
    Spiralpro Posts: 34
    Of course all the recent doping allegations and suspicions and admissions, have nothing to do with this.
  • Autobus Straggler
    Autobus Straggler Posts: 47
    truthfully, i think this year is almost impossible to even have a favorite...all the quote unquote favorites, have some glaring weakness that will keep them from winning...In all honesty, i do not know how frank schleck's TT is, but he is close to the top of my list, i would honestly love to see Levi in yellow in paris, but he generally has one bad day in the alps, and a bad one in the Pyrenees, two bad mountain days, and you are out...top ten probably, but nothing else, menchov cant handle the pace for all three weeks...however, now that everyone else is using blood that has never been outside of their body, it really could be anyone...i am sure everyone in france will pray from now until july 29th that moreau or voeckler will win, but once again no...valverede? you never know, he has to get past the first week...In all honesty, if rassmussen can have just one decent TT, he could win...all of this to say, this could be one of the most exciting races since 2003 or the last time there were no team radios, heres to a great july!

    Give me pave or give me death!
    Give me pave or give me death!
  • OffTheBackAdam
    OffTheBackAdam Posts: 1,869
    Now Rassmussen's done nothing all year, he was virtually invisible at the Giro, so I'd put a big question mark against him, and not just for his lack of performance this year! He does seem to be able to "peak" just when needed.
    I think Vino will be on the top step come Paris.

    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
  • drenkrom
    drenkrom Posts: 1,062
    Rasmussen never does anything all year and is always dismal in the mountains in any race appart from the Tour. He has become quite predictable and so I think someone can outfox him this year, but don't count him out for lack of results up to now. I got hosed on that one in my bets last year.

    I'm putting the green (no, not the jersey!) on Vino as well. He's a sneaky guy and i don't believe the Dauphin‚ blowup for a minute. My heart's choice is Contador, though.
  • Autobus Straggler
    Autobus Straggler Posts: 47
    I truthfully want Contador to win, but i cannot make a prediction yet, he will be spent working for levi by the time he could have a chance to go for the gc...

    Give me pave or give me death!
    Give me pave or give me death!
  • esmit208
    esmit208 Posts: 41
    The only thing I can wholly agree with is that it will indeed be WIDE OPEN. Lots of names have been mentioned but fitness or lack thereof seems to be an issue although I think some of these guys are just taking a MULLIGAN as not to show their true form. Remember Lance did it a few years ago on a stage and fooled everyone. I do think it will be a TDF veteran but not sure from which team. As an AMERICAN of course I would like to see the DISCO guys guys ride well but at this ponit it seems unlikely for anything other than the stage win here or there. We will seen in about 3 weeks.

    Edward G. Smith
    Edward G. Smith
  • campagchris
    campagchris Posts: 773
    Im going for Alexandre Vinokourov for the win with great rides by Frank Schleck,and Vladimir Karpets(if valverde is poorly)Rabobank seem to have quite a strong squad also.
  • Stark.
    Stark. Posts: 108
    Apparently, you can get odds of 6-1 on Kloden, which looks like a pretty good bet to me. But if he follows his usual tactic of simply hanging on in there in the hope that everyone else will just fall by the wayside, it would be one very dull route to victory.

    I just think it's great that the days of the race for second place behind Armstrong are behind us.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Is there a good all round guide to the tour available at the moment, if so how much is it and where can it be purchased?

    Cheers.

    C

    Try to keep up!
  • Julspro
    Julspro Posts: 51
    Cyclone, there are several 'Official Guides' on the newstands now.
    Check out this thread for more details...
    ProCycling's TdF issue cover. Kiss of Death? (It is about 3 or 4 threads down from this one).

    Caribbean Soul
    Caribbean Soul
  • drenkrom
    drenkrom Posts: 1,062
    Kloden is up to 7-1, same as Valverde. Good long shots on Contador and F.Shleck, both at 25-1. Vino is at 2.75-1. You can also bet Voeckler will have yellow in Paris for 300-1. Rodgers is at 50-1, Leipheimer 12, Sastre 14, Evans 16, Menchov 18.

    Green jersey odds are way less interesting with McEwen a 2.5-1, Boonen at 3.75-1 and Hushovd at 6-1. Stuey O'Grady is my choice longshot at 20-1.

    So there's some choice betting to be made if you fancy someone other than Vino will take it. Even the bookies see it as wide open.

    btw, all odds are from Unibet.
  • campagchris
    campagchris Posts: 773
    I might have a little wager on Frank Schleck at them odds and Michael Rogers for that matter,oh and a double Karpet as McCririck would say on Karpets.
    Whatever a double carpet is hope I dont win a rug[:)]
  • Stark.
    Stark. Posts: 108
    Haven't a clue what a double carpet is, but I reckon a few quid on Schleck, Karpets or Menchov wouldn't be a bad idea. I would also happily wager money on the following things happening - although I doubt if I'd get very good odds.

    1. A major pile up in one of the early sprint finishes.
    2. Valverde retiring about 5 or 6 stages in.
    3. Lots of French riders shooting off the front on suicidal breaks and basking in their (all too brief) moment of glory.

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