Tour de France 2022 rest day 3 *SPOILERS*

No_Ta_Doctor
No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,655
edited July 2022 in Pro race
So, two weeks down of an incredible race so far and there are... Questions

- Will Covid disrupt the main jersey races?
- Will the extreme heat cause? neutralisations/route changes?
- How will Vingegaard's reduced team cope with Pogacar?
- Where will Pogacar look to make the difference, and how? A one on one race in the Pyrenees?
- How long will Ineos sit in the wheels and wait?
- Van Aert, what will his next madness be, or will he stay with the yellow?
- Which sprinters will get over the mountains to Paris?
- Will there be *any* day where the break doesn't take an hour of mad racing to form?
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Comments

  • commuterlegs
    commuterlegs Posts: 271
    Sadly i think WVA will be ordered to stay with the team going forward, green is sewn up now. Guess he can be unleashed on the Champs Elysee as a reward.

    Hope I'm wrong but I don't think Ineos have the riders to attack, would love to see them risk their 3 top10 guys and launch some sort of ambush, not sure UAE/JV would have the firepower now to necessarily control. Ineos would need Ganna on top form for that though and he seems a little off.
  • larkim
    larkim Posts: 2,485
    Presumably the thinking is that Pog doesn't have enough TT ability to get 2+ minutes back, so he has to do "something", but odds are that whilst one of Pog or Vingegaard might crack and let an Ineos rider gain on them, the chance of them both cracking are pretty unlikely.
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  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    edited July 2022
    Pog has got to attack on the Peguere on Tuesday because leaving it till Peyragudes on Wednesday is too much of a risk @2min.22. If Jumbo can get WvA ahead of Pog and waiting on Tuesday for the Peguere descent the tour could be over.
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited July 2022
    Fuglsang has dropped out. The Danish downfall continues.....
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    edited July 2022
    ....
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • amrushton
    amrushton Posts: 1,312
    All out by Ineos and UAE a la JV. On the climbs isolate Jonas (but can Thomas do that?)
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    The extreme heat seems to be on the way out - whether that favours one rider over another who knows.

    As former winners you'd hope Thomas and Pogacar will adopt a win or bust mentality. I can't see Pogacar getting anything close to 2:22 in the time trial so he needs something.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • neonriver
    neonriver Posts: 228
    2 riders (outside top 20) tested positive for covid further tests to see if they can continue
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,655
    The hope for Ineos must surely be that Vingegaard and Pogacar knock lumps out of each other on the first two stages and leave themselves wasted for the Hautacam. They need to stay in contact until then
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  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,334
    Not sure Thomas can do anything that he's not doing already, unless anyone thinks that his TT ability gives JV another problem to consider. Ineos riding to keep pressure on at the front is probably working for Pog, but from where they are still makes sense, I think?
    Twitter: @canocola @thedreadships
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    edited July 2022
    Pog is more likely to crack from trying to hard than Jonas . But Jonas is more likely to have a stress induced mishap. Ineos will defend and not be as exciting as we want ... That said pidcock should attack somewhere on the downhill . Covid could get anyone . Heat ..unknown . Someone is going to pay . They will have to be generous with the cut off I guess

    Bardet has to do something but looking cooked . That said he is always handles the 3rd better than most . Favours the bad weather so I think his challenge is a real tough one . ..
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • commuterlegs
    commuterlegs Posts: 271
    Tough to tell at the end of a tour but you'd think the ITT would suit Thomas more than Pog/Vin but doubt it would be by much so he'd need to find two mins over the next few stages (and more importantly not lose any more time). If he could follow Pidders down Peguere he might be able to find a minute, not sure how technical it is though.

  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    edited July 2022
    commuterlegs said:

    Tough to tell at the end of a tour but you'd think the ITT would suit Thomas more than Pog/Vin but doubt it would be by much so he'd need to find two mins over the next few stages (and more importantly not lose any more time). If he could follow Pidders down Peguere he might be able to find a minute, not sure how technical it is though.

    Ineos ride hard pace on stage 17 drop all/most of jumbo and UAE and pidcock goes on downhill Val louron ...

    Peguere is too steep going up . Pidcock will get dropped and have chase back on
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    edited July 2022
    mididoctors said:

    commuterlegs said:

    Tough to tell at the end of a tour but you'd think the ITT would suit Thomas more than Pog/Vin but doubt it would be by much so he'd need to find two mins over the next few stages (and more importantly not lose any more time). If he could follow Pidders down Peguere he might be able to find a minute, not sure how technical it is though.

    Ineos ride hard pace on stage 17 drop all/most of jumbo and UAE and pidcock goes on downhill Val louron ...

    I'm glad someone is taking this seriously
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    My fan is blowing hot air on me
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • commuterlegs
    commuterlegs Posts: 271
    So Jumbo have WVA, Laporte, Kuss, Van Hooydonck and Benoot left. If (and that's a big if) Ineos could ride hard up the mountain, probs only Kuss that could hold on (maybe Benoot on a good day). Trying to do something on anything other than a mountain and Ineos would be up against WVA/Laporte/Van Hooydonck so difficult to make it stick.

    I hope they get inventive a la Giro 2018......
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    If they can isolate Ving early then a Yates attack, especially with an Ineos rider up the road would be interesting.

    Ultimately Vingegaard surely can't cover Yates, Ving and Thomas on his own from further out than the final climb - Pogacar tried it and it ended up being his undoing. If I was Pogacar I'd be happy to let Thomas or Yates overtake me on GC if it brought me close to Vingegaard and I had one mountain stage left to attack on. So I think there may be scope for Ineos to work Vingegaard over using Pogacar as an anchor.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited July 2022
    commuterlegs said:

    So Jumbo have WVA, Laporte, Kuss, Van Hooydonck and Benoot left. If (and that's a big if) Ineos could ride hard up the mountain, probs only Kuss that could hold on (maybe Benoot on a good day). Trying to do something on anything other than a mountain and Ineos would be up against WVA/Laporte/Van Hooydonck so difficult to make it stick.

    I hope they get inventive a la Giro 2018......


    Van Aert will be in the break trying to win the stage
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I can’t see ineos attacking and Pog letting Ving stew
    _
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    neonriver said:

    2 riders (outside top 20) tested positive for covid further tests to see if they can continue


    The rest day tweets can now we scanned for clues. It's not an Ineos rider (posted a full team & staff photo), not Froome (swimming in the river with his teammates)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    edited July 2022
    rick_chasey said:

    I can’t see ineos attacking and Pog letting Ving stew

    It's a twofer for ineos on stage 17 ... Going UK postal will distance the podium threat from behind so it's defensive too
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • thejimmymethod
    thejimmymethod Posts: 458
    RichN95. said:

    neonriver said:

    2 riders (outside top 20) tested positive for covid further tests to see if they can continue


    The rest day tweets can now we scanned for clues. It's not an Ineos rider (posted a full team & staff photo), not Froome (swimming in the river with his teammates)
    Not Intermarche

  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,726
    It'll be interesting to see if Vinegaard has received any damaged after his crash.
    It wouldn't necessarily show up yesterday, as we all know.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    ...
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,165
    Ineos and UAE have to do exactly the same - don't give TJV a single moment of rest. No easy days for kuss.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited July 2022
    Ten years ago on Friday




    Today (European Junior Points champion)


    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    Need to try to burn off WVA early too.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,698
    Tonights Watts Occuring is worth a listen.

    A few stories suggesting that it's not just forumites and commentators that don't understand some of the moves...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    Dani Martinez seems to have recovered a bit as the race has gone on so I wonder if he'll be a factor. At his best, he'd be a handy ally for any Ineos breakaway attack.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,655
    ddraver said:

    Tonights Watts Occuring is worth a listen.

    A few stories suggesting that it's not just forumites and commentators that don't understand some of the moves...

    The Jakobsen story is superb. Basically "I don't understand what the hell is going on, who's an experienced rider who can explain it? Ah, G would know"
    G: "Sorry mate, no idea"
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