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Bike prices

Good grief they’ve spiked eh? The equivalent to my 2017 Cube Agree is 165% of its price. I guess my question is do we see this calming down in terms of the year on year increase? Anyone have any industry insight regarding supply, demand and any other costs that will be causing it and (hopefully!) decreasing soon?

Posts

  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,167
    No chance.
    The only way is up.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • super_davosuper_davo Posts: 735
    Everything is going up in price, why would bikes be any different?

    The second hand market went a bit mental during lockdown and the supply chain shortage, prices going sky high. That has calmed down a bit but still has a bit further to go.

    But prices of new bikes & components are only going up. Days of Wiggle, Merlin & CRC offering 50% off new groupsets are long gone - not that sort of competitive market anymore.
  • Dorset_BoyDorset_Boy Posts: 5,014
    edited 6 April
    Supply remains a massive issue, particularly supply of components. Look at how difficult it is to get hold of various Shimano components, and certain tyres.
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286
    Can't see prices dropping - retailers have realised that people will still buy everything they have at non discounted prices so why should they lower profit margins?
  • Dorset_BoyDorset_Boy Posts: 5,014
    MattFalle said:

    Can't see prices dropping - retailers have realised that people will still buy everything they have at non discounted prices so why should they lower profit margins?

    Are these the same retailers that came up with the idea of Black Friday, less than 6 weeks before Christmas?!!!!!
    I think when the supply side issues are finally resolved (which won't be in 2022) we'll be back to retaillers discounting, though maybe not as much as a few years ago.
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286
    Black Friday is, as we all know, not such a great deal.

    Discounts on 2 year old XL tops and some hideous shoes do not the old times mske.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,167

    MattFalle said:

    Can't see prices dropping - retailers have realised that people will still buy everything they have at non discounted prices so why should they lower profit margins?

    Are these the same retailers that came up with the idea of Black Friday, less than 6 weeks before Christmas?!!!!!
    I think when the supply side issues are finally resolved (which won't be in 2022) we'll be back to retaillers discounting, though maybe not as much as a few years ago.
    Black Friday was introduced to get the Americans doing their Christmas shopping ASAP after Thanksgiving. We imported it and as far as bargains go it is now about as good/bad as the Boxing Day sales. Some headlines but otherwise a waste of time.

    I'll suggest that the supply issues are far more than a side issue and that next year we will be reminiscing about how cheap things were in 2022.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 7,802
    What are the supply issues ?


    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 61,017 Lives Here
    Dorset is just saying it’s a competitive market so the new lower equilibrium will be found if the supply issues are sorted.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,167

    What are the supply issues ?


    Raw materials, manufacturing, shipping, plus all the related costs.
    Little things like that.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 7,802
    Yes but what are the particular issues now as opposed to 4 years ago ?


    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • Dorset_BoyDorset_Boy Posts: 5,014

    Yes but what are the particular issues now as opposed to 4 years ago ?


    China's zero covid policy reducing production levels
    Greater competition for raw materials post global lockdown
    Global shortage of shipping containers
    In cycling, bike manufacturers getting first dibs on components and tyres etc
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286
    the fact that fuel prices have gone up meaning manufacturing cosrs have hone up and transport costs have gone up so trade prices have gone up.

    and theres a war going on so raw material prices have gone up and supply has shrunk.
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286

    Dorset is just saying it’s a competitive market so the new lower equilibrium will be found if the supply issues are sorted.

    someone's been on Wikipedia this morning.
  • daniel_bdaniel_b Posts: 10,152
    edited 6 April
    My personal opinion is that this suits the bike manufacturers just fine, and they will look to keep things as is.

    They will be able to sell to bike shops at higher prices, knowing that the bike shop won't be discounting anyway, because demand is so high, and they will have paid more for it in the first place.
    They don't have to pay untold sums to store bikes for months and months.

    Currently people (including me with a Scott and a mate with a Ribble) are committing to buying bikes we won't see for several months or even over a year.
    Ribble you don't start paying until it's delivered I think, but my Scott I bought through the C2W scheme, so that money has gone to the shop, and presumably then straight onto Scott, and I've already nearly paid half of it off, and the 12 month period will have completed by the time I hopefully receive it.

    The bike shop, and Scott have the funds, so will be earning interest off of that, Scott know as soon as the bike is available they can ship it straight to the shop, who will in turn ship it out to me.
    My bike was earmarked for May, but apparently due to the shortage of groupsets to fit to it, will now be December.......hopefully.

    As a price increase example, the 2021 Scott Addict RC30 that came out in September 2020, started at £2999, then went up to £3199, then, £3399, and finally £3749 - this is all in the space of 10 months, I don't believe I can ever recall launch prices rising even once, happy to be corrected though.
    That's a 25% increase.
    If anything the opposite used to happen, 6 months in, and they had left over stock and they knew the next years range were coming in, so the discounts would start, 30-40% was not uncommon.

    The 2022 range came out, and within a few weeks, the prices had been hiked by circa 8%, maybe it will all go up again soon - mine is locked in at the launch price which is something.

    I really think it works well for both the manufacturers and the bike shops to be fair.
    Plus with bikes getting more complex (Hydraulics and fully integrated cables etc) I suspect your average rider will also be generating more revenue for the bike shop in servicing and repairs etc.

    It doesn't work out so well for us anymore of course :#

    Fortunately for me, with a recently purchased bike, and one in 2018, and now with the Gravel one due at the end of the year, that should be me covered for at least 5 years, maybe as much as 10.
    *With the exception that I will be looking for a new groupset during that time, but will turn to the cycle to work scheme for that as well, which softens the blow a bit.
    Felt F70 05 (Turbo)
    Marin Palisades Trail 91 and 06
    Scott CR1 SL 12
    Cannondale Synapse Adventure 15 & 16 Di2
    Scott Foil 18
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,167
    It won't be any consolation but huge price increases are not going to be limited to cycling equipment.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • super_davosuper_davo Posts: 735

    Dorset is just saying it’s a competitive market so the new lower equilibrium will be found if the supply issues are sorted.

    Part of the issue with prices is that its not a competitive market.

    A few years ago we had Wiggle, CRC, Merlin, Evans, Ribble competing in the delivery market on price in the UK and access to Mantel, Bike24, Bikediscount et al from the continent and everyone was worried about how LBS's would compete and how many would go bust.

    Now Wiggle & CRC have merged, Evans have gone Mike Ashley, Ribble have gone UK Canyon, Brexit has put the shutters up on Mantel & co; and there aren't hoards of LBSs where you feel you need to pay £8 for an inner tube to keep them in business.

    It is a very very different landscape even discounting the supply issues.
  • redvisionredvision Posts: 2,814
    This has been discussed at length previously (during covid) but there is no chance of prices dropping any time soon. It's not only because of supply and demand, as in at the moment supplies are extremely limited due to covid limiting production whilst demand is greater than ever, therefore higher prices are inevitable. Then there is the Ukraine situation which is complicating transporting goods and adding to costs which are always passed on to the consumer.

    When will prices return to pre covid levels?? Personally I don't think they ever will.
  • veronese68veronese68 Posts: 25,291 Lives Here
    pblakeney said:

    It won't be any consolation but huge price increases are not going to be limited to cycling equipment.

    Lots of big price increases in supply of bits for old cars, raw materials costs and shipping being the main causes. Also more frequently than they used to be. Same would apply to bike bits and lots of others no doubt.
  • daniel_bdaniel_b Posts: 10,152
    edited 6 April

    Dorset is just saying it’s a competitive market so the new lower equilibrium will be found if the supply issues are sorted.

    Part of the issue with prices is that its not a competitive market.

    A few years ago we had Wiggle, CRC, Merlin, Evans, Ribble competing in the delivery market on price in the UK and access to Mantel, Bike24, Bikediscount et al from the continent and everyone was worried about how LBS's would compete and how many would go bust.

    Now Wiggle & CRC have merged, Evans have gone Mike Ashley, Ribble have gone UK Canyon, Brexit has put the shutters up on Mantel & co; and there aren't hoards of LBSs where you feel you need to pay £8 for an inner tube to keep them in business.

    It is a very very different landscape even discounting the supply issues.
    I could not agree more on the lack of competition now in the UK, Tredz, Halfords and Wheelies are all the same company.
    CRC and Wiggle have also been bought out by a German company I think?
    And as you say Ribble don't really sell parts anymore.
    Was it Cycle Surgery that bit the dust recently as well?

    Luckily we still have the likes of Merlin and Sigma, but I wonder if one or both of them will get absorbed in time.
    Balfe's bikes seem to be on the up as well, both physically and online.

    Evans must have lost an enormous amount of the market, and who would shop at an ashley 'business' anyway.

    I too thought the majority of European resellers would be totally off limits, and a lot have a limit of £135, but Alpine Trek, Keller Sports, Mantel, Bikester, and I think BikeInn all fall within that category, and seem to have got something sorted, as they are delivering here with no extra fees.
    Postage is generally more than it used to be of course.

    I suspect the majority of people aren't even looking though.

    I know Rose have removed gb as a shipping destination, and it might be Bike DE or Bike discount, I forget which.
    Felt F70 05 (Turbo)
    Marin Palisades Trail 91 and 06
    Scott CR1 SL 12
    Cannondale Synapse Adventure 15 & 16 Di2
    Scott Foil 18
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 61,017 Lives Here
    Sounds like a good time to get into the bike kit sales game then!
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286

    Sounds like a good time to get into the bike kit sales game then!

    why? theres no stock, no margins to be made and the big players are a)taking priority over you when it comes to recrivibg stock and b) selling it cheaper yhan you can.

    sounds like an appalling idea tbh.

    it z v v low margin business anyway let alone now.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 61,017 Lives Here
    I thought you were just saying there’s little competition and even if supply issues subside prices will remain high?!
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 9,286
    not me Mr Keynes.

    its a relatikvely closed market anyway, so to get a foothold is a nightmare let alone now.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,167

    Sounds like a good time to get into the bike kit sales game then!

    Crack on and report back later.
    I'd recommend chatting with some LBS owners first though.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Agree with all the posts above re supply chains, materials etc. Dan B touched on a relevant point, year on year costs (at a point way above inflation) have been prevalent for a while now, long before covid started.

    Bike manufacturers are pushing more expensive bikes, disc brakes, integrated frames with proprietary parts. Bikes are increasingly seen as a luxury lifestyle good and a lot of brands are pricing them accordingly.

    Supply issues have given them the perfect justification to set prices high and do away with discounting (certainly at previous levels).

    As others have said, all of these factors mean a return to cheaper prices and deals of the past is now long gone.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 7,802
    I'm less pessimistic on prices.

    The Covid issue should work its way through the system ... eventually. It may be that other factors are pushing prices up but I don't see an ever upward price spiral in the next few years given Covid is responsible for quite a lot of the price bump.

    Longer term Brexit has reduced retail competition a bit and if non Covid factors are pushing costs up then that's going to impact but I don't see ever growing prices are sustainable. Once production ramps up it becomes less of a seller's market and whatever pressures caused retailers to discount previously will return.

    If prices do keep ramping up then it's got to shrink the market because demand is not perfectly price elastic.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • Thanks - really interesting perspectives. Originally, I was thinking about a slow down in terms of the rate of increase as shown by daniel_b with the Scott. I did have a thought that with cycle2worm schemes having no limit any more some of the ‘saving’ would be siphoned off by the shop/manufacturers. Probably not though.

    It does seem that whenever there’s an economic shock the consumer gets gouged one way or the other.

    I’ll just have to buy another piggy bank eh…
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