Yellow jersey 2: The pool

Pross

meursault wrote:

Podium in GT
Mas - No idea what this guy is doing in this list

Well, it's a list of riders with a previous GT podium to their name and he's been on a GT podium. It's hardly rocket science or in anyway a controversial inclusion, just a simple statement of fact!

blazing_saddles

Looking at the last few posts, I think it's worth putting a few coins on Bottles it. :P

ContrelaMontre

mididoctors wrote:

I hope Thomas doesn't spoil this endless speculation by being too good . thankfully the parcours is going to hide who is good till later ...barring the TTT.

Stage 6 looks like the difficulties come early so should give us an idea of who is competitive. I think the finish might suit a Martin, Yates, Bardet or Woods but the stages in the Alps where they go above 2000m 7 times in two days will be where we see who has really got it.

DeadCalm

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Incomplete list - feel free to re-arrange

Podium in GT
Nibali
Valverde
Uran
Bardet
Quintana
Mas
Thomas

Landa (definitely)

Class A to B
Kruijswijk
Van Garderen
Yates A

Mollema
Porte
Pinot
Martin D
Fuglslang
Poels
Buchman
Bennet

Jungels

Class B
Kelderman
Izaggire G
Henao
Latour
Reichenbach
Gallopin
Martin G
Barguil
Molard
Soler

Um, Bernal?

andyp

Passed it, according to meursault.

phreak

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Incomplete list - feel free to re-arrange

Podium in GT
Nibali
Valverde
Uran
Bardet
Quintana
Mas
Thomas

Landa (definitely)

Class A to B
Kruijswijk
Van Garderen
Yates A

Mollema
Porte
Pinot
Martin D
Fuglslang
Poels
Buchman
Bennet

Jungels

Class B
Kelderman
Izaggire G
Henao
Latour
Reichenbach
Gallopin
Martin G
Barguil
Molard
Soler

Underlines what a weak field it is imo. Uran and Valverde are very unlikely to challenge for top spot, and with the Giro in his legs you can surely add Nibali to that. Quintana hasn't shown any form lately, barely scraping into the top 10 in his last three GTs, and Mas has an awful lot to prove. Landa will be deadened by the Giro, and Adam Yates hasn't really built on his white jersey of a few years ago to suggest he can follow Simon into serious contention. Then you've got a couple of old guys in Porte and Fuglsang who have shown they can win 1 week races but never come close to putting it together for 3 weeks.

specialgueststar

phreak wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Incomplete list - feel free to re-arrange

Podium in GT
Nibali
Valverde
Uran
Bardet
Quintana
Mas
Thomas

Landa (definitely)

Class A to B
Kruijswijk
Van Garderen
Yates A

Mollema
Porte
Pinot
Martin D
Fuglslang
Poels
Buchman
Bennet

Jungels

Class B
Kelderman
Izaggire G
Henao
Latour
Reichenbach
Gallopin
Martin G
Barguil
Molard
Soler

Underlines what a weak field it is imo. Uran and Valverde are very unlikely to challenge for top spot, and with the Giro in his legs you can surely add Nibali to that. Quintana hasn't shown any form lately, barely scraping into the top 10 in his last three GTs, and Mas has an awful lot to prove. Landa will be deadened by the Giro, and Adam Yates hasn't really built on his white jersey of a few years ago to suggest he can follow Simon into serious contention. Then you've got a couple of old guys in Porte and Fuglsang who have shown they can win 1 week races but never come close to putting it together for 3 weeks.

Somebody's got come 1 2 and 3. Can't just say it will be no-one!

phreak

As an aside, the race has 1 of the last 7 GT winners in the lineup, going back to Quintana's Vuelta win in 2016.

phreak

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

phreak wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Incomplete list - feel free to re-arrange

Podium in GT
Nibali
Valverde
Uran
Bardet
Quintana
Mas
Thomas

Landa (definitely)

Class A to B
Kruijswijk
Van Garderen
Yates A

Mollema
Porte
Pinot
Martin D
Fuglslang
Poels
Buchman
Bennet

Jungels

Class B
Kelderman
Izaggire G
Henao
Latour
Reichenbach
Gallopin
Martin G
Barguil
Molard
Soler

Underlines what a weak field it is imo. Uran and Valverde are very unlikely to challenge for top spot, and with the Giro in his legs you can surely add Nibali to that. Quintana hasn't shown any form lately, barely scraping into the top 10 in his last three GTs, and Mas has an awful lot to prove. Landa will be deadened by the Giro, and Adam Yates hasn't really built on his white jersey of a few years ago to suggest he can follow Simon into serious contention. Then you've got a couple of old guys in Porte and Fuglsang who have shown they can win 1 week races but never come close to putting it together for 3 weeks.

Somebody's got come 1 2 and 3. Can't just say it will be no-one!

No, of course, just it doesn't look a great line up to me. Had Quintana not gone backwards over the last 18 months or Bardet shown he can win races, Adam Yates had progressed as much as Simon has (or Dumoulin been fit) then there may be something to suggest a changing of the guard, but instead the only guys showing form are a number of older riders who traditionally do well in week long races but seldom back it up in longer events. I can't help but feel had Froome not fallen off then this might have been his easiest win yet.

meursault

andyp wrote:

Passed it, according to meursault.

No, I didn't say anything about Bernal, but one for the future.

meursault

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

meursault wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Incomplete list - feel free to re-arrange

Podium in GT
Nibali - Passed it
Valverde - Passed it
Uran - Passed it
Bardet - Non Champion material (yet)
Quintana - Non Champion material (Bottles it)
Mas - No idea what this guy is doing in this list
Thomas - Hard to look beyond, in the strongest team

Landa (definitely) - Team not strong enough

Class A to B
Kruijswijk - Dark Horse IMHO will go well
Van Garderen - Could finish higher than the passed it's above
Yates A - Non Champion material (Bottles it)

Mollema - Non champion material (not elite tier)
Porte - Passed it
Pinot - Non Champion material (Bottles it)
Martin D - Non champion material (not elite tier)
Fuglslang - Dark Horse, team not strong enough
Poels - Non GC rider
Buchman - Non champion material (not elite tier)
Bennet - Non GC Rider

The point is it's a more open race so you might have to adjust your reasoning

Mollema 5th in the Giro ??

what exactly is 'bottles it' ?

I mean not having the required psychology to sustain a tour win.

meursault

Pross wrote:

meursault wrote:

Podium in GT
Mas - No idea what this guy is doing in this list

Well, it's a list of riders with a previous GT podium to their name and he's been on a GT podium. It's hardly rocket science or in anyway a controversial inclusion, just a simple statement of fact!

OIC. I didn't know what the rules were. One 2nd in Spain does not make a tour winner. You can get 33-1 on him though, same odds as Poels.

mididoctors

The Radcliffe postals looked themselves on the gottard. Bernal did the buissness . Rohan Dennis was a surprise. Is Dennis riding?

mididoctors

Podium in GT
Nibali - not going for GC hope he is bluffing and causes an upset
Valverde old.
Uran - mmmmm ? Looking better than some.
Bardet - mmmmm? Not showing form yet ag2r will attack in the second week
Quintana - Fading
Mas - outclassed or coming into form at the right time?
Thomas - Hard to look beyond, but questionable preperation?
Bernal too young? But was strong in the third before.
Landa (definitely) - doomed

Class A to B
Kruijswijk - Invisible
Van Garderen - parks up on the big hills
Yates A - mmmmmm? Strong team

Mollema - mmmm no.
Porte - his problem is he is Porte .may come good with the pressure off.
Pinot - going to attack in the second week...
Martin D -limited by TT
Fuglslang - fades in the hills
Poels - No...just no
Buchman - will follow
Bennet - ? Literally don't know .
Woods ?
Dennis ?

RichN95.

A different pool - the Bookies pool

Generally under 10-1
Thomas
Bernal
Fuglsang

Generally 10-1 to 20-1
Yates
Quintana
Porte
Pinot
Landa
Kruijswijk

Generally under 50-1
Bardet
Mas
Nibali
Poels
Uran

Martin, Buchmann and TJVG all around 66-1

I've had some small bets (£5 each) on each way bets on Martin (100/1), Keldermann & Woods (both 200/1) and Dennis (425/1)

blazing_saddles

mididoctors wrote:

The Radcliffe postals looked themselves on the gottard. Bernal did the buissness . Rohan Dennis was a surprise. Is Dennis riding?

I mentioned Dennis this afternoon, while watching him on the St Gottard.
He is 3 years into a 5 year (I think) programme to turn himself into Sir Geraint Wiggins.
On the evidence of the past two days, I'd say he's ahead of schedule, but Sunday will be his acid test.

andyp

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I mentioned Dennis this afternoon, while watching him on the St Gottard.
He is 3 years into a 5 year (I think) programme to turn himself into Sir Geraint Wiggins.
On the evidence of the past two days, I'd say he's ahead of schedule, but Sunday will be his acid test.

His problem is successive days in the mountains, he can hang on for two days at most, but if there is a third consecutive day he loses too much time to make it back up in the time trials.

He's 29 now, has only ever finished three GTs and his best result, by far, is 16th in last season's Giro, where he plummeted out of the top ten in the final weekend. I can't ever see him challenging for a podium place in a GT, unless there is a return to courses that have 70 kms or more of flat time trials and fewer mountain stages.

mididoctors

andyp wrote:

His problem is successive days in the mountains, he can hang on for two days at most, but if there is a third consecutive day he loses too much time to make it back up in the time trials.

He's 29 now, has only ever finished three GTs and his best result, by far, is 16th in last season's Giro, where he plummeted out of the top ten in the final weekend

People have done better with worse records. Needs that breakthrough performance thou.

meursault

Thomas
Kruijswijk
Bardet

From the betting pool

ridgerider

Much as I love Kruijswijk, I can't recall him riding many races this year, and in the dauphine he wasn't doing very well before he pulled out ill after the wet day.

I would put him in the flakey pool.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

The Radcliffe postals looked themselves on the gottard. Bernal did the buissness . Rohan Dennis was a surprise. Is Dennis riding?

I mentioned Dennis this afternoon, while watching him on the St Gottard.
He is 3 years into a 5 year (I think) programme to turn himself into Sir Geraint Wiggins.
On the evidence of the past two days, I'd say he's ahead of schedule, but Sunday will be his acid test.

Assuming he's staying at Bahrain, it will be interesting to see what Ellingworth can do with him.

rick_chasey

Fuglsang under 5-1 is nuts

inseine

Blazing Saddles wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

The Radcliffe postals looked themselves on the gottard. Bernal did the buissness . Rohan Dennis was a surprise. Is Dennis riding?

I mentioned Dennis this afternoon, while watching him on the St Gottard.
He is 3 years into a 5 year (I think) programme to turn himself into Sir Geraint Wiggins.
On the evidence of the past two days, I'd say he's ahead of schedule, but Sunday will be his acid test.

I did wonder yesterday if by turning himself who doesn’t loose too much to Bernal in the mountains he is now someone who can’t put much into him in the TTs?

timothyw

I suspect fatigue from the previous two days was a factor - had to work hard to limit his losses.

No_Ta_Doctor

I honestly think Bernal's TTing is a bit underrated. He's pigeonholed because he's a skinny Colombian kid. But he was Colmbian TT champ in 2018 (yeah, I know, the competition may not have been all that strong) and doesn't look at all uncomfortable on a TT bike. He may not have the raw power that TT specialists can put out, but he's decent technically. And unlike the French, Ineos will have made sure he's put the hours in. It's not a weapon for him, but as weaknesses go it's been heavily mitigated.

m.r.m.

Bernal is a complete GT rider. Hence the hype.

Think Dennis can win an occasional GT like Aru when the competition isn't stiff.

Landa as a favorite of almost any calibre at the Tour is mysterious to me. His horrible TT ability should disqualify him utterly against proper competition.

DeVlaeminck

Looking at the list of favourites I find it hard to look beyond the Ineos pair of Bernal and Thomas and of the two I've just got a feeling Bernal goes into it with better form and preparation so for me he's favourite.

It's probably easier to make a case for why pretty much every contender wont win it rather than why they will though.

coopster_the_1st

There's misinformed chat on here that Ineos will allow their number 2 rider to attack their team leader. Can any of those making this suggestion back up where Ineos/Sky have allowed this to occur in the last 10 years?

Unless Thomas blows, crashes or cannot follow an attack Bernal and Thomas team leadership will only change if Bernal beats Thomas in the stage 13 ITT. I see the attacks of Pinot being very dangerous to Thomas but I don't see him being in contention for the win due to his TT ability.

Top 3(crashes excluded):

Thomas
Bernal
*Fuglslang

*This is the position that I see as being a great battle with Pinot & A Yates being in contention and their battle for 3rd will take some pressure off Ineos as their leaders can just defend.

RichN95.

Coopster the 1st wrote:

There's misinformed chat on here that Ineos will allow their number 2 rider to attack their team leader. Can any of those making this suggestion back up where Ineos/Sky have allowed this to occur in the last 10 years?

Stage 11 2018.

Besides, who is number 2? Bernal is the rider with the best form of all the riders, just like Thomas was last year. But Thomas doesn't have the relentless consistency Froome did.

blazing_saddles

RichN95 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

There's misinformed chat on here that Ineos will allow their number 2 rider to attack their team leader. Can any of those making this suggestion back up where Ineos/Sky have allowed this to occur in the last 10 years?

Stage 11 2018.

Besides, who is number 2? Bernal is the rider with the best form of all the riders, just like Thomas was last year. But Thomas doesn't have the relentless consistency Froome did.

Who does though?
I think Ineos will have a pretty good idea of how things stand between the two and that if Thomas is OK, then he will get the total protection that Froome has enjoyed this past half a decade or so. Bernal will also be protected, but in the same way that Geraint was, last year.
What could be telling is if either had a problem during the stage 2 TTT.

If GT isn't in good nick, then it's a different story.