Viictor Campenaerts on schedule to break Sir Brads hour record.

bobmcstuff

ShutupJens wrote:

Saw Dan Bigham calculating on instagram that Campanaerts averaged about 330w. No idea how he arrived at that or anything or how the altitude affects the power output but it might be of interest to some

Sounds lower than I would have guessed?

That should broadly be his FTP, he's 72kg so that's "only" 4.6 w/kg (I know w/kg isn't directly relevant as it isn't a climb, just looking at benchmarking what similar sized riders should be able to manage). There are amateurs with more than 4.6 w/kg.

Altitude reduces power output as there is less oxygen available, I don't know whether that would explain that much a reduction. Also being in that super aero position would reduce it a bit as well (trade off between putting out more power and reducing drag)

Wiggins supposedly did about 440W, although is a bit taller they seem to be about the same weight (Wiggins wiki weight is 69 kg but I assume that was his GT weight, as he's 1.9m. He would have been heavier for the hour record, but even at 80kg that's still 5.5 w/kg). Wiggins is supposed to be very aero too. Question is the altitude effect for me, a 1+ w/kg difference sounds like an awful lot though.

TL;DR, who knows but 330W seems a little bit low on the face of it.

timothyw

Aren't the estimates for Wiggins in the 440w ballpark?

Is it that much harder to generate power at altitude/that much easier to go fast, or is there a digit wrong?

rank_amateur

TimothyW wrote:

Aren't the estimates for Wiggins in the 440w ballpark?

Is it that much harder to generate power at altitude/that much easier to go fast, or is there a digit wrong?

At that ‘Evening with...’ event he said 450 watts at 108 rpm for the hour, 469 watts for 50 minutes for the Olympic TT and 455 watts for 1hr 10 in the TDF TT. I made a note on my phone and the numbers still amaze me.

ugo.santalucia

330 Watt is a ridiculous figure... will be about 450

ShutupJens

So effectively Ugo is saying that altitude has completely zero effect then? Broke the record by a small amount doing slightly more power so should have been in similar conditions right? Sounds like some real guesswork to me

Ben6899

Rank_amateur wrote:

At that ‘Evening with...’ event he said 450 watts at 108 rpm for the hour, 469 watts for 50 minutes for the Olympic TT and 455 watts for 1hr 10 in the TDF TT. I made a note on my phone and the numbers still amaze me.

Those numbers...!

bobmcstuff

ShutupJens wrote:

So effectively Ugo is saying that altitude has completely zero effect then? Broke the record by a small amount doing slightly more power so should have been in similar conditions right? Sounds like some real guesswork to me

330 is implausible.

450 - well maybe, maybe not. He will at least be capable of doing something around that at sea level, possibly it will have been a bit less at altitude.

It's all guesswork unless he releases some data but it's going to be closer to 450 than 330.

bobmcstuff

Seen some reasonable looking estimates that he managed about 390 which apparently is equivalent to about 440W at sea level. So can assume he was a bit more aero than Wiggins (he is a decent bit shorter, 1.73m vs 1.9m).

okgo

I doubt Dan Bigham has got his numbers wrong, many reputable sources have agreed with him from memory and given his business he isn't really one to get this stuff way out. The altitude makes a huge difference quite clearly. Not many people are doing efforts at 2000m to ever really know (apart from pro cyclists).

Personally I think Campanaerts engine is not really close to Wiggins (not many are, or will be) I remember reading an interview with VC saying how he was going full gas to try and avg 400w for a TT in Romandie. But yes, he will likely be a lot more aero than Brad, things have moved on a LOT in that side of things since 2012, as Dan Bigham and his team have proved time and time again.

ShutupJens

okgo wrote:

I doubt Dan Bigham has got his numbers wrong, many reputable sources have agreed with him from memory and given his business he isn't really one to get this stuff way out. The altitude makes a huge difference quite clearly. Not many people are doing efforts at 2000m to ever really know (apart from pro cyclists).

Personally I think Campanaerts engine is not really close to Wiggins (not many are, or will be) I remember reading an interview with VC saying how he was going full gas to try and avg 400w for a TT in Romandie. But yes, he will likely be a lot more aero than Brad, things have moved on a LOT in that side of things since 2012, as Dan Bigham and his team have proved time and time again.

Nicely made point Okgo but the internet experts have spoken. He needed 550w and an engine to beat the record because wiggins won the tour

bobmcstuff

ShutupJens wrote:

okgo wrote:

I doubt Dan Bigham has got his numbers wrong, many reputable sources have agreed with him from memory and given his business he isn't really one to get this stuff way out. The altitude makes a huge difference quite clearly. Not many people are doing efforts at 2000m to ever really know (apart from pro cyclists).

Personally I think Campanaerts engine is not really close to Wiggins (not many are, or will be) I remember reading an interview with VC saying how he was going full gas to try and avg 400w for a TT in Romandie. But yes, he will likely be a lot more aero than Brad, things have moved on a LOT in that side of things since 2012, as Dan Bigham and his team have proved time and time again.

Nicely made point Okgo but the internet experts have spoken. He needed 550w and an engine to beat the record because wiggins won the tour

Nobody's said that.

simon_e

bobmcstuff wrote:

ShutupJens wrote:

Nicely made point Okgo but the internet experts have spoken. He needed 550w and an engine to beat the record because wiggins won the tour

Nobody's said that.

I think it's called sarcasm.

Has rider+bike aerodynamics really moved on that much since mid-2015 (when Wiggins took the record)? He was aiming for 55 km but had to revise expectations downwards as the pressure increased.

Michael Hutchinson, who knows a thing or two about this subject, tweeted about Victor's ride:

"What would he have done at sea-level? Very hard to know. The general estimate is that the 1800m of Aguascalientes produces a net gain of a bit over a km, depending on acclimatisation. Takes nothing away from a great effort."

Dowsett seems keen to have another go. He said tha he rode well within himself to set his record and figures released claim he produced an average 395w. Bigham (who knows vastly more than most people about this subject) analysed his ride and what he'd need to do to beat Wiggins in a detailed 2016 blog entry here. I'd certainly like to see him have another crack at it.

Could Rohan Dennis make an attempt in the next couple of years? Possibly, though the level of preparation needed has gone up since his record and he would need a good team behind him. I have a hunch that the real possibility of failing would bother him more than Alex.

blazing_saddles

Campenaerts currently last in the Romandie prologue.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Campenaerts currently last in the Romandie prologue.

It probably took him five minutes to stop turning left

blazing_saddles

RichN95 wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Campenaerts currently last in the Romandie prologue.

It probably took him five minutes to stop turning left

He crashed.......................turning left.