Tour de l'Avenir 2018 - SPOILERS

No_Ta_Doctor

Chears for the excellent summaries DeadCalm

DeadCalm

Had a lot of work to catch up on last night so, with apologies for the delay, here is a brief report of stage 8.

It was another short (81km) but mountainous stage. A long category one climb was followed by a descent then a short climb up to the finish.



The Colombians attempted a different tactic this time, sending Daniel Munoz Giraldo into the break. The peloton was led by the American and Slovenian teams. The break was caught some distance before the summit of the category one climb and Stephen Williams (GB), Eddie Dunbar and a Colombian launched a short-lived counter-attack. A peloton of about 35 riders crested the climb together. Gino Mader of Switzerland attacked on the descent, got a 40 second lead and managed to hold off the fast approaching peloton on the final climb. Sosa tried an attack which came to nothing and a group of 14 riders (including Sosa, McNulty, Arensman, Vlasov and Ireland's Eddie Dunbar) came in 15 seconds behind the Swiss. Young Mark Donovan finished in 21st place on the stage a further 12 seconds back.

The top 12 on GC:

Rnk Prev ▼▲ Rider Team UCI Time
1 1 - Pogacar Tadej Slovenia 1 21:04:35
2 2 - McNulty Brandon United States 0:07
3 3 - Arensman Thymen Netherlands 0:12
4 9 ▲5 Mader Gino Switzerland 0:30
5 5 - Vlasov Aleksandr Russia 0:31
6 6 - Dunbar Edward Ireland ,,
7 4 ▼3 Battistella Samuele Italy 0:32
8 7 ▼1 Gregaard Wilsly Jonas Denmark 0:40
9 10 ▲1 Champoussin Clement France 0:51
10 11 ▲1 Almeida João Portugal 1:02
11 13 ▲2 Sosa Ivan Ramiro Colombia 1:07
12 14 ▲2 Ries Michel Luxembourg ,,

DeadCalm

DeadCalm wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

The Contenders
My man Ivan Sosa is the strong favourite but the inclusion of the TTT where Colombia are presumably going to be weak gives a few other riders a glimmer of hope including Aleksandr Vlasov (Russia), Brandon McNulty (USA) and Marc Hirschi (Switzerland). British interest will be focused on 19 year old Mark Donovan who recently signed as a stagiare for Team Sky and 22 year old Stephen Williams who has recently signed to ride for Bahrain-Merida. They finished 4th and 5th respectively in this year's Baby Giro.

The full startlist is here:

https://www.tourdelavenir.com/en/teams-riders/

Not really up on my U23 racing but no hope for Eddie Dunbar or does he just not have the team to support him?

Not massively up on my U23 racing either. Hoping to get better acquainted with it and following this race seems to be a good start.

As for Eddie Dunbar, I had him down as more of a hilly classics type rider rather than the kind of pure climber I'd expect to be challenging for GC. Quite happy to be told otherwise though.

Shows how little I know. Eddie is having a fine race, sitting 6th on GC, a mere 31 seconds off the lead and has been attacking on the climbs.

DeadCalm

So, it's stage 9, we finally have some TV coverage and I have to go to a leaving do. I will be sat in the corner following the action on my phone but am unlikely to be posting live updates.



Another short stage. 83km with an elevation gain of 2857 m.

The Contenders

Sosa was the overwhelming favourite coming into this race having topped off a string of impressive GC wins by seeing off Miguel Ángel López and a host of World Tour riders at the recent Vuelta a Burgos but the time lost in the TTT could prove to be too much. Certainly, I'm not sure that his seemingly favoured tactic of waiting to the final kilometre and then launching a blistering attack will gain him the minute he needs to take back off McNulty who is probably his main challenger.

McNulty, who rides for Rally is tipped to be the next big thing in American cycling. He can TT (2nd in the U23 World Champs in 2017) and is already a very good climber. He finished 7th overall at the recent Tour of California, the highest finish by a non-World Tour rider.

There are a couple of reasons why I don't think Tadej Pogacar, who currently wears yellow, is the main challenger to Sosa. First, he was comfortably beaten in the sprint at the end of stage 7. Second, I know virtually nothing about him other than he managed 4th on GC in the recent Tour of Slovenia.

Russian Aleksandr Vlasov is a big talent but is attempting to be the first rider to win the baby Giro and the Tour de l'Avenir in the same season. Like Froome in the seniors, he may find that a challenge too far.

Thymen Arensman (Netherlands) is the second youngest rider in the race and barely raced in the first half of this year because he was finishing high school. He did manage to pick up third place at Paris Roubaix espoirs though. He's definitely one to watch for the future although it would be a major surprise if he were to win this year.

Irishman Eddie Dunbar, who rides for Aqua Blue Sport, won the 2017 Junior version of the Tour of Flanders which is why I wrongly had him pegged as a one day hilly classics rider but he is clearly a decent climber and GC prospect as well. He's already been aggressive in the mountains and it would be nice to see one of his moves pay off for him.

Warning note: Before I decided to watch this race I knew virtually nothing about U23 cycling. All of the above is cobbled together from research on the internet over the last week or so. The aim was to become a little more knowledgeable (which I've achieved I think) but there could well be horrible inaccuracies.Feel free to point them out to me.

coopster_the_1st

DeadCalm wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

The Contenders
My man Ivan Sosa is the strong favourite but the inclusion of the TTT where Colombia are presumably going to be weak gives a few other riders a glimmer of hope including Aleksandr Vlasov (Russia), Brandon McNulty (USA) and Marc Hirschi (Switzerland). British interest will be focused on 19 year old Mark Donovan who recently signed as a stagiare for Team Sky and 22 year old Stephen Williams who has recently signed to ride for Bahrain-Merida. They finished 4th and 5th respectively in this year's Baby Giro.

The full startlist is here:

https://www.tourdelavenir.com/en/teams-riders/

Not really up on my U23 racing but no hope for Eddie Dunbar or does he just not have the team to support him?

Not massively up on my U23 racing either. Hoping to get better acquainted with it and following this race seems to be a good start.

As for Eddie Dunbar, I had him down as more of a hilly classics type rider rather than the kind of pure climber I'd expect to be challenging for GC. Quite happy to be told otherwise though.

Shows how little I know. Eddie is having a fine race, sitting 6th on GC, a mere 31 seconds off the lead and has been attacking on the climbs.

I knew little as well but thanks to your efforts I know a bit more now.

On Dunbar, I was struggling to see how he wasn't a contender. He rides for one of the best 2nd division teams and had a top 10 finish in the Tour of Yorkshire. While I can see that would point to him being a good hilly classics rider, he looks and has always stood out when the road goes skywards.

Whether he will be a future GT contender I don't know, but he can climb and TT.

knedlicky

Based on 2017 performances, I'd say Pogacar and Dunbar, and to a lesser extent Gregaard-Wilsly, aren't surprises in the current top 10.

DeadCalm

Disappointing coverage. Kirby was more interested in some mural of a ski jumper on the side of the Tignes dam than the race. I had more of an idea of what was going on when following the French text on Directvelo than watching live on Eurosport. Fernando Barcelo of Spain won from a long breakaway which was countered by Michel Ries from Luxembourg and Tadej Pogačar who extended his lead in the yellow jersey competition. More details to follow.

knedlicky

Impressive intent (and success) from Barcelo, the long hills too much for Dunbar (and even earlier McNulty and others), Pogacar looking in control.
I like this final stage tomorrow, those two climbs in the last 50 kms still allow for GC changes.

DeadCalm

knedlicky wrote:

Impressive intent (and success) from Barcelo, the long hills too much for Dunbar (and even earlier McNulty and others), Pogacar looking in control.
I like this final stage tomorrow, those two climbs in the last 50 kms still allow for GC changes.

Super impressive rides from Barcelo, Ries and Pogačar. Pogačar emphasising just how little I know. He was covering every move from early on including an attack from Mark Donovan who has had an impressive ride.



McNulty had a puncture on one of the early climbs and had a long chase to get back on which may account for his inability to stay with the group of favourites. Eddie Dunbar had been riding quite aggressively, putting in a few attacks over the last couple of days and may have paid for his efforts. My man Sosa has reportedly been suffering from stomach issues for the last 48 hours and yellow now seems beyond him.

Pogacar looks to have this in the bag unless he collapses or someone has a super ride. I really hope young Thymen Arensman can dig in and hold onto a podium place.

Top 20 on GC:

Rnk Prev ▼▲ Rider Team UCI Time
1 1 - Pogačar Tadej Slovenia 1 23:34:34
2 12 ▲10 Ries Michel Luxembourg 1:07
3 3 - Arensman Thymen Netherlands 1:17
4 20 ▲16 Barcelo Fernando Spain 1:23
5 4 ▼1 Mäder Gino Switzerland 1:35
6 5 ▼1 Vlasov Aleksandr Russia 1:36
7 8 ▲1 Gregaard Wilsly Jonas Denmark 1:45
8 9 ▲1 Champoussin Clement France 1:56
9 10 ▲1 Almeida João Portugal 2:07
10 11 ▲1 Sosa Ivan Ramiro Colombia 2:16
11 13 ▲2 Foss Tobias Norway 2:17
12 14 ▲2 Bagioli Andrea Italy 2:24
13 16 ▲3 Gall Felix Austria 2:31
14 18 ▲4 Stannard Robert Australia 2:35
15 22 ▲7 Donovan Mark Great Britain 2:43
16 6 ▼10 Dunbar Edward Ireland 2:47
17 21 ▲4 Archibold Franklin UCI WCC Mens team 3:26
18 23 ▲5 Sleen Torjus Norway 4:20
19 26 ▲7 Bjerg Mikkel Denmark 4:21
20 19 ▼1 Zimmermann Georg Germany 4:45

DeadCalm

Today's final stage has been shortened to 117 km with the climb and descent of the category one col de l'Iseran taken out due to icy roads. They were due to begin the climb of the col de l'Iseran virtually from the gun. That's a big bonus for Pogačar whose teammates would likely have been dropped on that climb.

DeadCalm

Our man Joseph Areruya of Rwanda is on the attack. He has 15 seconds on the peloton. Pogačar is already losing teammates.

DeadCalm

Eddie Dunbar pipped for the stage win by Mader of Switzerland. Pagacar survived going off course on the descent. He had to ride over the grass verge but got back to the main group just before the finish to win the race. Arensman finishes about 10 seconds down but moves up to second overall. A fantastic performance from the second youngest rider in the race. Below top spot, quite a few riders had bad days meaning Mark Donovan managed to move up to 10th overall despite coming in quite a way behind the lead group.

Magnus agrees with me that Eddie Dunbar's aggression probably cost him a better result.

DeadCalm

2018 was surely a vintage year for l'Avenir. All of these riders are in action today, either at the Giro or LBL with the exception of Eddie Dunbar who would have been were it not for a broken collarbone.

1 1 - POGAČAR Tadej Slovenia 140 25 26:28:53
2 3 ▲1 ARENSMAN Thymen Netherlands 110 18 1:28
3 5 ▲2 MÄDER Gino Switzerland 80 14 1:35
4 6 ▲2 VLASOV Aleksandr Russia 60 11 1:36
5 8 ▲3 CHAMPOUSSIN Clément France 50 8 1:56
6 10 ▲4 SOSA Iván Ramiro Colombia 40 6 2:16
7 9 ▲2 ALMEIDA João Portugal 30 4 2:35
8 16 ▲8 DUNBAR Eddie Ireland 20 3 2:47
9 11 ▲2 FOSS Tobias Norway 10 2 3:28
10 2 ▼8 RIES Michel Luxembourg 6 1 4:25
11 15 ▲4 DONOVAN Mark Great Britain 3 5:36
12 4 ▼8 BARCELÓ Fernando Spain 3 5:43
13 7 ▼6 GREGAARD Jonas Denmark 3 6:05

RichN95.

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DeadCalm

I've been meaning to say, keep an eye on that kid in 67th. He has a huge career ahead of him.