Time Cut

craigus89

Not sure how extensively this has been discussed in any of the stage threads, does anyone else think that this needs serious looking at?

I understand that the time cut is there to stop the slower guys and sprinters just rolling round and coming in 2 hours later, but this year it has eliminated pretty much all of the sprinters who would make the final stage in Paris a lot more interesting. I'm sure the sprinters, their teams (and ASO for that matter) would rather they were there racing up the Champs-Elysee in the finale.

It doesn't seem to be serving its purpose. Fair enough Cav was way off the time, that is not he reason for this thread, I just think it has deviated from it's intended purpose.

They publish expected arrival times each day based on certain speeds, couldn't one of these be selected as the time cut with it being adjusted if there were serious weather implications or something that would really disrupt things? Any better ideas?

Shorter stages and GC racing from K0 only makes things worse. It seems that as the racing has evolved the time cut needs to as well.

Pross

They generally make it in with no problem other than a few injured stragglers. I think it is more the racing has been harder this year. There’s already some discretion and it has been used on a couple of stages. Maybe a bit of a lack of experience in the bus to calculate the cut off and pace?

DeVlaeminck

On the flip side the lack of sprinters has the potential to make more riders try and get in breaks with fewer teams with reason to chase so swings and roundabouts as far as entertainment goes.

Jez mon

Pross wrote:

They generally make it in with no problem other than a few injured stragglers. I think it is more the racing has been harder this year. There’s already some discretion and it has been used on a couple of stages. Maybe a bit of a lack of experience in the bus to calculate the cut off and pace?

Various reports had been saying that there wasn't a large bus forming this year, with some blaming the smaller team sizes.

I think they could do with being a bit more generous

Dorset_Boy

Well they were extremely generous in somehow enabling Demare to make the cut on Tuesday & Wednesday (or was he just towed along again?!)

No_Ta_Doctor

There have been two min issues with the time cut this year

1: Smaller teams = less riders in the autobus = more work per rider
2: Short mountain stages - these just don't have enough flat padding (where the sprinters can at least match the leaders) to make the cut reasonable. If half a stage is flat you can lose your % on the climbs no problem. Condensing the stages might make for more exciting racing for the GC but it really screws with the sprinters

The combination of these has also had knock-on effects - instead of the autobus forming early sprinters are trying to hang on for as long as possible and smaller groups form, broken up over the route. Plenty will also be ready to give up when they see the scale of the task ahead of them, there's no comfort there.

Pross

I think one thing this year has shown is that the sprinters aren’t just dawdling around taking as much time as possible whilst saving energy as was often implied in the past (with regards to Cav in particular) but actually they have to work hard to get in.

DeVlaeminck

What is the percentage of riders who have been timed out compared to previous years, anyone know? Just wondering if some big names going home has given us a false impression or not.

No_Ta_Doctor

DeVlaeminck wrote:

What is the percentage of riders who have been timed out compared to previous years, anyone know? Just wondering if some big names going home has given us a false impression or not.

Well.... I can't be arsed working out which riders didn't make the cut, which abandoned through injury and which abandoned because they didn't think they could make the cut, but...

145 riders are left in the race, out of 176 that started. So 17.6% have left the race one way or another, with two stages left.

2014 - 198 started, 164 finished - loss of 17% of riders
2015 - 198 started, 160 finished - loss of 19% of riders
2016 - 198 started, 174 finished - loss of 12% of riders
2017 - 198 started, 167 finished - loss of 15.6% of riders

We've lost as many riders as in 2017, from a smaller number that started. Lost more than in 2016.

So yes, it does look a bit more severe this year, though not that much, it's within the range.

I think what we have seen though is that the autobus has been smaller and later to form. There's safety in numbers (can't remember which year it was that around 60 riders came in late and were allowed to continue), but it's been hard to find a group big enough to be protected.

above_the_cows

No tA Doctor wrote:

...I think what we have seen though is that the autobus has been smaller and later to form. There's safety in numbers (can't remember which year it was that around 60 riders came in late and were allowed to continue), but it's been hard to find a group big enough to be protected.

It was 2011, the year Cav won the green jersey.

No_Ta_Doctor

Above The Cows wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

...I think what we have seen though is that the autobus has been smaller and later to form. There's safety in numbers (can't remember which year it was that around 60 riders came in late and were allowed to continue), but it's been hard to find a group big enough to be protected.

It was 2011, the year Cav won the green jersey.

You're kidding aren't you? It was like, last Tuesday or something. :shock:

above_the_cows

Seven. Years. Ago.

No_Ta_Doctor

Above The Cows wrote:

Seven. Years. Ago.

There must be a far more recent example. There must be. You're just mucking with my head.

above_the_cows

I can't think of another one off the top of my head. Rojas was really annoyed as he'd busted himself to get 30 seconds or something on the autobus and if Cav had been kicked out he'd have won green. It was a stage that included the Telegraph, the Galibier and Alpe d'Huez.

No_Ta_Doctor

Above The Cows wrote:

I can't think of another one off the top of my head. Rojas was really annoyed as he'd busted himself to get 30 seconds or something on the autobus and if Cav had been kicked out he'd have won green. It was a stage that included the Telegraph, the Galibier and Alpe d'Huez.

I refuse to accept this until a proper nerdy statto has verified it. I refuse, you hear me? Where's Rich?

above_the_cows

RICH!

This is not a drill. I repeat, this is not a drill.

m.r.m.

No_Ta_Doctor

Rich!

No_Ta_Doctor

OK Rich, you're on your last warning. If you want to keep your job as the forum resident statto then you need to do better. Just the other day we had a question in the spoiler thread about the last time a particular bike manufacturer had won in Paris, and it was answered within a couple of minutes. If you're struggling to keep up with the backlog then let us know, there are load of posters who would be overjoyed to have your position, and we can easily arrange an organisational change that would see you moved into one of the grumpy old codgers roles that we think you're eminently suited to. It goes without saying that we value your commitment to the forum and wouldn't like to lose your experience.We understand that your current role is very demanding and that personal extenuating circumstances meant you couldn't answer this question within the timeframe set by the service level agreement, but you've been granted an extension and we still don't see the results we expect from someone in your position. If you are experiencing difficulties in your current role or personal matters that prevent you from fulfilling your role to the standard expected of the forum then please contact HR (Rick) and we will do our best to find a solution that can accommodate all parties.

m.r.m.

As a self appointed member of the bored, I think a little vacation after the strain of scoring the TDF PTP is perfectly justified for our good man Rich. I'm sure regular service will commence shortly!

In the meantime feel free to assemble a list of alternate candidates in case the position will require filling after all, shortly.

RichN95.

Yeah it was 2011. Stage 18. The one where Andy Schleck attacked a long way out and won up the Galibier.

The autobus missed the time cut by a couple of minutes, but the rules say that if more than 20% of the field miss out then the commissaires can keep them in (a given unless they really haven't tried). All the riders get the stage win points deducted from their green jersey tally.

A more notable example was the famous Formigal stage in the 2016 Vuelta where 91 riders finished 22 minutes outside the time limit. I wrote at the time how the mathematical model for time cuts wasn't fit for purpose on short stages where GC action started early.

No tA Doctor wrote:

please contact HR (Rick)

Seriously? That's an even worse situation than my actual ex-workplace.

No_Ta_Doctor

RichN95 wrote:

Yeah it was 2011. Stage 18. The one where Andy Schleck attacked a long way out and won up the Galibier.

The autobus missed the time cut by a couple of minutes, but the rules say that if more than 20% of the field miss out then the commissaires can keep them in (a given unless they really haven't tried). All the riders get the stage win points deducted from their green jersey tally.

A more notable example was the famous Formigal stage in the 2016 Vuelta where 91 riders finished 22 minutes outside the time limit. I wrote at the time how the mathematical model for time cuts wasn't fit for purpose on short stages where GC action started early.

No tA Doctor wrote:

please contact HR (Rick)

Seriously? That's an even worse situation than my actual ex-workplace.

I feel partially vindicated then, I knew there was something more recent.

As for HR and Rick, sorry, I don't have any control or influence over that part of the organisation.

rick_chasey

S’ok.

I’m about as powerful as typical HR too.