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The Giro - Geraint a real contender?

PedalAlmightyPedalAlmighty Posts: 4
edited April 2017 in Road general
Reading today Quitana is still the big favourite with NIbali also in the reckoning, but with recent form, my money is on Geraint Thomas. Maybe I'm being slightly bias..

Posts

  • BobbinogsBobbinogs Posts: 4,841
    Probably best posted in the Pro race section
  • Yep, did realise that afterwards, but couldn't figure out how to do it - its my first post!
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,689
    He can't touch Quintana on the mountains and the Giro is a very hard race... mountains are steeper than the Tour ones and teams are typically less organised. I think he can do a top 10, not sure if he can do a top 3
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    Nope.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • Garry HGarry H Posts: 6,639
    Nah, don't think he'll ever win a GT, although I'm very happy to be corrected. Think he should concentrate on the early season stuff.
  • AK_jnrAK_jnr Posts: 717
    I dont think he has a chance in a 3 week tour. He can just about cling on for a week. Great rider though. Personally wish he would concentrate on the classics and win a big one.
  • BobbinogsBobbinogs Posts: 4,841
    If Nibali can win the Tour then G can win the Giro. You don't have to be the best rider on the start list...just the best rider who's left at the end!
  • AK_jnrAK_jnr Posts: 717
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....
  • stretchystretchy Posts: 149
    Bobbinogs wrote:
    You don't have to be the best rider on the start list...just the best rider who's left at the end!

    This is G's problem in my opinion.
  • debelidebeli Posts: 582
    Broadly, I am with the others. Great rider but not ready for a GT podium. Wonderful if he gets one, but not ready yet as I see it.

    Having said that, I'd written Cadel off as an eternal bridesmaid before his win of the TdF and in the years before BW won the Tour, I was astounded that so successful a track monster over so many years would risk so much to race the GTs.

    I am still slightly astounded that he won one, but popular opinion tells me that I am wrong in that.

    I also saw Schleck A doing rather better than he did over the years in GTs.... I know he did well and inherited the odd result after the odd doping nullification, but I thought he'd do REALLY REALLY well.

    So.... Opinions are just opinions and mine are often wrong.

    But Thomas for the Giro win? No.

    All other opinions are based on mere conjecture. Mine is underwritten by at least three major deities. Real ones, not the made-up ones.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 13,776
    AK_jnr wrote:
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....

    Yes, but when he won the tour, he was the last contender still on his bike, rather than the best grand tour rider who started the race. Staying upright is important.
  • AK_jnrAK_jnr Posts: 717
    I'd say he deserved it for stage 5 alone. Incredible performance.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 6,321
    AK_jnr wrote:
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....

    Yes, but when he won the tour, he was the last contender still on his bike, rather than the best grand tour rider who started the race. Staying upright is important.


    Though he did win it by over 7 and a half minutes, looking at the way the race went it's debatable whether Froome or Contador would have beaten him even had they avoided injury.
    AFC Mercia women - sign for us
  • mrb123mrb123 Posts: 2,830
    A lot can happen over 3 weeks, especially if there's bad weather about.

    Barring a bad crash for Quintana though it's hard to see any other winner. He's likely to be able to ride away from everybody else on summit finishes.
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    AK_jnr wrote:
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....

    Yes, but when he won the tour, he was the last contender still on his bike, rather than the best grand tour rider who started the race. Staying upright is important.


    Though he did win it by over 7 and a half minutes, looking at the way the race went it's debatable whether Froome or Contador would have beaten him even had they avoided injury.

    lol.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,689
    okgo wrote:
    AK_jnr wrote:
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....

    Yes, but when he won the tour, he was the last contender still on his bike, rather than the best grand tour rider who started the race. Staying upright is important.


    Though he did win it by over 7 and a half minutes, looking at the way the race went it's debatable whether Froome or Contador would have beaten him even had they avoided injury.

    lol.

    I wouldn't laugh... before Contador retired, he was 3 minutes behind and had Froome not retired, he would have been even further behind, as he couldn't ride the wet cobbles. In 2014 Nibali was climbing as fast as anyone and the Astana team was maybe only second to Sky. It would have been tough for Froome to erode the advantage Nibali had built early on.
    Of course, without the wet cobbles stage, it would have been difficult for Nibali to win... but the stage was there and it happened to be wet... so on that occasion, I think Nibali proved the strongest of the big three
  • Nothing like a GT to spark debate and divide opinions!

    Related to this, I came across this article today on the Giro, which is worth a read: http://velosocial.co/100-years-pink-giro-ditalia/
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 13,776
    okgo wrote:
    AK_jnr wrote:
    I take it thats a joke? Nibali has won all 3 grand tours including the giro twice....

    Yes, but when he won the tour, he was the last contender still on his bike, rather than the best grand tour rider who started the race. Staying upright is important.


    Though he did win it by over 7 and a half minutes, looking at the way the race went it's debatable whether Froome or Contador would have beaten him even had they avoided injury.

    lol.

    I wouldn't laugh... before Contador retired, he was 3 minutes behind and had Froome not retired, he would have been even further behind, as he couldn't ride the wet cobbles. In 2014 Nibali was climbing as fast as anyone and the Astana team was maybe only second to Sky. It would have been tough for Froome to erode the advantage Nibali had built early on.
    Of course, without the wet cobbles stage, it would have been difficult for Nibali to win... but the stage was there and it happened to be wet... so on that occasion, I think Nibali proved the strongest of the big three

    Unless I'm remembering wrongly, Froome couldn't ride the wet cobbles because he already had a broken wrist and had already pulled out before they got there.
  • bianchimoonbianchimoon Posts: 3,942
    He'll have a battle to beat Landa, never mind Quintana, Nibali and Kruijswijk. Personally think a GT a hill to far for him, really hope i'm wrong though
    All lies and jest..still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest....
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,689
    Unless I'm remembering wrongly, Froome couldn't ride the wet cobbles because he already had a broken wrist and had already pulled out before they got there.

    Certainly in that race he proved he couldn't ride in wet conditions, whether the wrist was broken before or he broke it on the day I don't know... I very much doubt he would have stayed with Nibali on the wet cobbles, wrist or no wrist, given his precarious balance.

    On a more general note, doing the "at his best Froome would have thrashed Nibali" talk is completely pointless... he didn't when he had the opportunity, he fell off numerous times instead, for his own faults and basically he proved that the Tour 2014 was too much for him... weather, course, form, injuries, whatever... he could not possibly win that Tour.

    The same applies to Contador of course
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 13,776
    Unless I'm remembering wrongly, Froome couldn't ride the wet cobbles because he already had a broken wrist and had already pulled out before they got there.

    Certainly in that race he proved he couldn't ride in wet conditions, whether the wrist was broken before or he broke it on the day I don't know... I very much doubt he would have stayed with Nibali on the wet cobbles, wrist or no wrist, given his precarious balance.

    On a more general note, doing the "at his best Froome would have thrashed Nibali" talk is completely pointless... he didn't when he had the opportunity, he fell off numerous times instead, for his own faults and basically he proved that the Tour 2014 was too much for him... weather, course, form, injuries, whatever... he could not possibly win that Tour.

    The same applies to Contador of course

    He didn't make it as far as the cobbles.

    You're absolutely right, of course, which is why it is relevant to this thread. If Nibali can win the Tour, it proves you don't have to be the strongest GT rider at the start to win the race. You need to stay upright as well in order to be the strongest finisher.
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,689

    You're absolutely right, of course, which is why it is relevant to this thread. If Nibali can win the Tour, it proves you don't have to be the strongest GT rider at the start to win the race. You need to stay upright as well in order to be the strongest finisher.

    Yes, although Nibali was ranked 3rd favourite at the start... Thomas is at a push no. 6-7... many things need to go wrong for the others for him to win the Giro
  • carbonclemcarbonclem Posts: 948
    In '14 Froome had broken one hand before the wet cobbled stage due to an unavoidable crash when a rider went down in front of him. On the day of the wet cobbles, he started but Sky had already committed to Porte, hence G dragging Porte across the cobbles to safety and his 'lets just smash it' instruction, meanwhile Froome's crashes were due to already compromised handling due to injury. How he would have ridden the actual cobbles is an unknown. Nibali has not yet beaten an uninjured top flight GT contender, imo.

    Anyway, can Geraint win the Giro? All things being equal, I don't reckon, but I'm rooting for a podium for him.
    2020 Metric Century Challenge Winner
  • davep1davep1 Posts: 775
    Nothing like a GT to spark debate and divide opinions!

    Related to this, I came across this article today on the Giro, which is worth a read: http://velosocial.co/100-years-pink-giro-ditalia/

    Thanks for the link, great read! I'm going to stage 9, which finishes at the Blockhaus, can't wait!
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