Andy Murray at No.1

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  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    mamba80 wrote:

    Murray on the hand is superb, a guy who has through hard work, overcome players who might have more natural ability, he is an example to us all.

    On this. Have you read the sports gene by David Epstein?

    It might make you question whether Murray has more or less natural ability, or whether his natural ability is to be able to "work harder" than his big rivals...

    When you look at his mother and brother's achievement in the sport, it is more likely to be natural ability. Apparently his maternal grandad was a professional footballer. They aren't exactly from privileged backgrounds. Middle class, maybe, but not the wealth that can buy the best coaching from an early age.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,227
    Tangled Metal wrote:

    Bear in mind the SPOTY has a track record in Olympic sportsmen and women figuring highly in the votes in an Olympic year. Put simply Murray will do well to come third I think.

    He didn't do too bad in the Olympics himself.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Tangled Metal wrote:
    Before winning yesterday Murray was 13th in the SPOTY rankings based on votes for the shortlist of 10 places. I assume he'll jump at least 3 places to get into the shortlist. Will this really earn him much more than.a bump into the shortlist?

    Bear in mind the SPOTY has a track record in Olympic sportsmen and women figuring highly in the votes in an Olympic year. Put simply Murray will do well to come third I think.

    1. Murray has won an Olympic Gold this year.

    2. But you're right.

    3. If it was possible to get a joint award, I think Kenny/Trott would be a sure thing for SPOTY.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    mrfpb wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    mamba80 wrote:

    Murray on the hand is superb, a guy who has through hard work, overcome players who might have more natural ability, he is an example to us all.

    On this. Have you read the sports gene by David Epstein?

    It might make you question whether Murray has more or less natural ability, or whether his natural ability is to be able to "work harder" than his big rivals...

    When you look at his mother and brother's achievement in the sport, it is more likely to be natural ability. Apparently his maternal grandad was a professional footballer. They aren't exactly from privileged backgrounds. Middle class, maybe, but not the wealth that can buy the best coaching from an early age.

    That's not really what I was saying. More that things we think or perceive as behavioural might be genetic and visa versa. It's a very good read.
    _
  • tangled_metal
    tangled_metal Posts: 4,021
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Avoid news chosen by algorithms.
    I will do for sport from now on but it's sometimes good to get random news sources. I used to like a certain English language Chinese online paper found through Google once for example.

    BTW as bad as Google news can.be, it beats only getting your news from the guardian though. :D
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Rick, I was equating natural ability and genetic disposition, so thought I was agreeing with you .

    It's worth noting that Judy and Willie's marriage broke down as she was away coaching for so much of the time, and WIllie raised the boys almost as a single parent. Andy and Jamie didn't benefit from her experience as a coach while she was a professional. So his drive to succeed is probably a genetic trait from his mum, rather than something taught and learnt.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    Tangled Metal wrote:
    Before winning yesterday Murray was 13th in the SPOTY rankings based on votes for the shortlist of 10 places. I assume he'll jump at least 3 places to get into the shortlist. Will this really earn him much more than.a bump into the shortlist?

    Bear in mind the SPOTY has a track record in Olympic sportsmen and women figuring highly in the votes in an Olympic year. Put simply Murray will do well to come third I think.
    He's a very short odds favourite to win with the bookies (around 1/5), the next best is over 4/1. He's a near certainty to win.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • buckmulligan
    buckmulligan Posts: 1,031
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    awavey wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Beating Djokovic in straight sets isn't winning straightforwardly?

    not when you go through 3 Match points, and your first serve keeps hitting the net.

    When you try to accelerate a ball at > 200 Km/h you hit the occasional net... it's a fact of life, get over it

    Murray had a first serve percentage of something like 52%; that's undeniably poor for any professional!

    Good on him though, he thoroughly deserves it.
  • buckmulligan
    buckmulligan Posts: 1,031
    RichN95 wrote:
    Tangled Metal wrote:
    Before winning yesterday Murray was 13th in the SPOTY rankings based on votes for the shortlist of 10 places. I assume he'll jump at least 3 places to get into the shortlist. Will this really earn him much more than.a bump into the shortlist?

    Bear in mind the SPOTY has a track record in Olympic sportsmen and women figuring highly in the votes in an Olympic year. Put simply Murray will do well to come third I think.
    He's a very short odds favourite to win with the bookies (around 1/5), the next best is over 4/1. He's a near certainty to win.

    The odds reflect what the general public think is going to happen, not an unbiased analysis of what's actually most likely to happen. That's to say, the betting on SPOTY up until now has likely been fairly sparse, so Andy Murray receiving a lot of attention in the last 24 hours (especially with the numerous references to SPOTY in the media) will have caused his odds to nose-dive overnight as the amount of money against his name starts to pile-up. As SPOTY gets closer, the betting market heats up and the other contenders get some attention, I've no doubt you'll see that correct itself to some degree.

    Having said that, I think he'll probably still be favourite and he'd be a deserving winner, again.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    RichN95 wrote:
    Tangled Metal wrote:
    Before winning yesterday Murray was 13th in the SPOTY rankings based on votes for the shortlist of 10 places. I assume he'll jump at least 3 places to get into the shortlist. Will this really earn him much more than.a bump into the shortlist?

    Bear in mind the SPOTY has a track record in Olympic sportsmen and women figuring highly in the votes in an Olympic year. Put simply Murray will do well to come third I think.
    He's a very short odds favourite to win with the bookies (around 1/5), the next best is over 4/1. He's a near certainty to win.

    There also needs to be consideration that those who participate, vote for their own sport so the cycling vote is likely to be split between Laura Kenny and Froome, etc. And Brownlee will take votes away from both cycling and athletics.

    Murray's only risk to winning is that he won it last year and if Konta gets on the shortlist. That will be tough for her in a very successful Olympic year

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