ProTour distribution and Spanish dominance
frenchfighter
Posts: 30,642
I love Spanish riders as you know and they top the rankings so frequently, yet a lot of their top performers are getting a touch old and I struggle to name their younger riders. I suspect that this trend of Spanish dominance will be a thing of the past soon.
So for my own interest I wanted to crunch a few numbers and see what the pro tour situation looked like. How old respective countries are, how their points are spread and essential which ones are likely fading glories and which are looking good for the next five years.
I am sharing it here in case others are also interested. Note that this is not too detailed and are just my own personal musings so am sure they could be improved and added to.
The data came from Cycling Quotient and uses all the riders for the 17 PT teams. This data is pretty correct as far as I can tell although I think it may include stagiares (for instance Tao is in the data for Sky), but regardless that is a small element.
First off, a normal distribution overlayed with a histogram of the PT rider ages:
Then for the analysis I wanted to exclude the smaller Nations so selected those with 15 riders and above. GBR is the exception with 14 riders but wanted to include that for obvious reasons. Nb. This includes 83% of the PT riders.
Here is the same distribution as above, overlayed with the distribution curve for Spain and also Colombia. From this is it is visually easy to tell how Spain's age distribution is 'mature', whereas Colombia's is 'young'.
Tabulating some more data and formatting each row with a colour scale for ease of comparison, there are some interesting things here.
CQ/Rider = Sum of 2015 CQ points YTD as of end of Aug, per country, divided by #riders
Avg Age CQ Q. = age weighted CQ points (ie/. age x cqp / sum cqp) (for those Nations, the average across all was 28 years)
Ratio = Avg Age CQ Q. / Avg Age
Definitely not looking good for Spain. GBR was a surprising one and have to only hope their younger talent comes good as at the moment they have their points heavily concentrated in older hands (Froome, Cavendish, G). France is actually looking quite good and Colombia is promising.
If I had time I would also look below PT giving there is clearly some young and developing talent there.
So for my own interest I wanted to crunch a few numbers and see what the pro tour situation looked like. How old respective countries are, how their points are spread and essential which ones are likely fading glories and which are looking good for the next five years.
I am sharing it here in case others are also interested. Note that this is not too detailed and are just my own personal musings so am sure they could be improved and added to.
The data came from Cycling Quotient and uses all the riders for the 17 PT teams. This data is pretty correct as far as I can tell although I think it may include stagiares (for instance Tao is in the data for Sky), but regardless that is a small element.
First off, a normal distribution overlayed with a histogram of the PT rider ages:
Then for the analysis I wanted to exclude the smaller Nations so selected those with 15 riders and above. GBR is the exception with 14 riders but wanted to include that for obvious reasons. Nb. This includes 83% of the PT riders.
Here is the same distribution as above, overlayed with the distribution curve for Spain and also Colombia. From this is it is visually easy to tell how Spain's age distribution is 'mature', whereas Colombia's is 'young'.
Tabulating some more data and formatting each row with a colour scale for ease of comparison, there are some interesting things here.
CQ/Rider = Sum of 2015 CQ points YTD as of end of Aug, per country, divided by #riders
Avg Age CQ Q. = age weighted CQ points (ie/. age x cqp / sum cqp) (for those Nations, the average across all was 28 years)
Ratio = Avg Age CQ Q. / Avg Age
Definitely not looking good for Spain. GBR was a surprising one and have to only hope their younger talent comes good as at the moment they have their points heavily concentrated in older hands (Froome, Cavendish, G). France is actually looking quite good and Colombia is promising.
If I had time I would also look below PT giving there is clearly some young and developing talent there.
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Comments
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That is really interesting - definitely surprised that Spain has such a starkly lower number compared to some of the others.
I suppose we're hoping/expecting that the GBR guys who are currently working for others most of the time will be able to step up. And that there will be more on the way up.0 -
Interesting indeed
so what's the root cause? don't they have 50% unemployment amongst the 18-25. you'd think they'd have plenty of time for training0 -
so what's the root cause? don't they have 50% unemployment amongst the 18-25. you'd think they'd have plenty of time for training
When I was in Spain last week there were tons of riders on the roads.Contador is the Greatest0 -
I think possibly your picture of the situation is distorted by assuming a normal distribution. If the normal distribution is correct, then one can simply say that the Spanish riders mature later and knowing that in the UK the GB riders go through the track usually, emerging to road later, an older average rider is to be expected. It might be more interesting to look at the skew or whether it is multimodal to understand the longevity of a nation's rider population.0
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Fair points to an extent. I did look at the skew and it is pretty minimal (slight positive skew). The median age per country is at max 1 year different to the mean. Largest skew was Ger (negative).Contador is the Greatest0
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Great post.
A couple of things strike me though, which could be interesting to examine.
Firstly, a points distribution by age would be interesting, especially normalized for number of riders at each age. That would also be superb to have a historical dimension to (not asking, just dreaming!). That would enable plotting a rider's progression against group or national data. You could play "spot the prodigy" with it :-)
Of course, your point earning ability also depends on being given the chance to ride, so if you cut off the outliers (the highest point earners for each team) you might get a peak at where the second tier are - which nations have young riders waiting in the shadows. Removing the top rider from any country would give you a picture of which nations are ranked highly due to a single rider or very few riders, which could also be cross referenced against the age distribution of the top riders.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
Little piece on Soler:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/marc-soler-the-new-sun-of-spanish-cycling/
Seems the exception
Your analysis seems well founded - Spain currently nestling between Korea and Serbia in the Juniors Nations Cup and between Belarus and Czech Rep in the u 23 rankings0 -
I tell you now, Denmark is the future.
They've been killing it in the Roubaix Jnr editions the last few years and completely smashed up Avenir.
Also, as a generalisation, Danish riders seem to be equally at home on Anglo and non-Anglo teams, so there's a good chance they'll fit in somewhere.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
The decline of Spain at the Vuelta in graph form
To keep the statistics theme if you remove 'bloodbanks' as a loaded factor would you not find that the correlation between Spainish cycling and success is spurious?0 -
I tell you now, Denmark is the future.
They've been killing it in the Roubaix Jnr editions the last few years and completely smashed up Avenir.
Also, as a generalisation, Danish riders seem to be equally at home on Anglo and non-Anglo teams, so there's a good chance they'll fit in somewhere.
People said exactly the same about the Dutch 15 years ago.0 -
I tell you now, Denmark is the future.
They've been killing it in the Roubaix Jnr editions the last few years and completely smashed up Avenir.
Also, as a generalisation, Danish riders seem to be equally at home on Anglo and non-Anglo teams, so there's a good chance they'll fit in somewhere.
People said exactly the same about the Dutch 15 years ago.
15 years ago, cycling was in the middle of the EPO crisis, which tended to skew things a touch.
Besides, the Dutch have had more false dawns than even the French.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
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By the way, Frenchie, outstanding effort.
Seconded. Genuinely interesting analysis.0 -
what it does go to show is how much it help having a few PT teams in your country and is that a chicken or the egg situation? do you get more riders because the teams are there, or more teams because the riders are there. Majority or GB riders are at sky, and aussies at OGE, if they both had an extra team would that mean more riders would step up? I fear for GB the strength of riders atm is amazing, Cav, G, Luke Rowe, Yates, Blythe plus many others but with the academy now based in Manchester not italy as it was i can't see how they are going to develop such good road racers or will they end up going into domestic UK teams and moving on from there?0
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How many of the current WT crop came through the (road) academy though? I inow Luke did but did many others? I think countries having strong Pro Continental teams is the key to future development and that's more of a problem for the UK going forward. I had hoped NFTO would race more on the continent than they have done. That's where France, Belgium and Italy have probably got the edge in numbers still going forward.0
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How many of the current WT crop came through the (road) academy though? I inow Luke did but did many others? I think countries having strong Pro Continental teams is the key to future development and that's more of a problem for the UK going forward. I had hoped NFTO would race more on the continent than they have done. That's where France, Belgium and Italy have probably got the edge in numbers still going forward.
G, Swift, Bellis, Cav, Kennaugh, Cummings, Blythe started in it. Probably others I have missed they call it Endurance(road and track) so there is a crossover but those good enough on the road would have been given a good program to develop from.0 -
How many of the current WT crop came through the (road) academy though? I inow Luke did but did many others? I think countries having strong Pro Continental teams is the key to future development and that's more of a problem for the UK going forward. I had hoped NFTO would race more on the continent than they have done. That's where France, Belgium and Italy have probably got the edge in numbers still going forward.
G, Swift, Bellis, Cav, Kennaugh, Cummings, Blythe started in it. Probably others I have missed they call it Endurance(road and track) so there is a crossover but those good enough on the road would have been given a good program to develop from.
Of the 13 guys on the Worlds long list, all bar Froome, Thwaites & Adam Yates were involved in the Academy in some form, plus PK who isn't on the list.0 -
Thanks for the comments and some interesting commentary above. I will look into DEN specifically when I am back on the shores of bonny Britain.Contador is the Greatest0
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How many of the current WT crop came through the (road) academy though? I inow Luke did but did many others? I think countries having strong Pro Continental teams is the key to future development and that's more of a problem for the UK going forward. I had hoped NFTO would race more on the continent than they have done. That's where France, Belgium and Italy have probably got the edge in numbers still going forward.
G, Swift, Bellis, Cav, Kennaugh, Cummings, Blythe started in it. Probably others I have missed they call it Endurance(road and track) so there is a crossover but those good enough on the road would have been given a good program to develop from.
Thanks, I thought they'd always operated separately with track based in Manchester and road in Italy. Thought Blythe had done the Belgian route so I assume he went there after being ditched from the Academy? What route did the Yates brothers come from?0 -
How many of the current WT crop came through the (road) academy though? I inow Luke did but did many others? I think countries having strong Pro Continental teams is the key to future development and that's more of a problem for the UK going forward. I had hoped NFTO would race more on the continent than they have done. That's where France, Belgium and Italy have probably got the edge in numbers still going forward.
G, Swift, Bellis, Cav, Kennaugh, Cummings, Blythe started in it. Probably others I have missed they call it Endurance(road and track) so there is a crossover but those good enough on the road would have been given a good program to develop from.
Thanks, I thought they'd always operated separately with track based in Manchester and road in Italy. Thought Blythe had done the Belgian route so I assume he went there after being ditched from the Academy? What route did the Yates brothers come from?
Simon was in the academy although i think maybe more track focussed as they had moved from italy by the time he came through, Adam rode as an amateur in France but they both made their breakthrough riding for GB at l'Avenir. Correct Blythe was in academy before he was kicked out and moved to Belgium0 -
The question is whether this is due to a lack of talent or the current economical situation in Spain and the lack of top level teams, basically only Movistar. Caja Rural has a good amount of youngsters, but there's only so many places at Movistar available after they're all filled up with top older riders after the collapse of the other teams like Euskatel etc0
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Good work.
I'm sure every Brit in Sky's team bar Froome came through the academy in some form. Does Cav not talk about Stannard in his book?0 -
Great analysis FF, well done.
I guess if you don't look after the youngsters then when the older generation fall off the top there's no one to replace them.
I agree with those highlighting the value of the British Cycling or Oz set ups, this is the key. Why/how did French cycling fall off the cliff? The Uk rider's early careers are defining their ultimate, later achievements. I guess also post academy they enter teams higher up the rankings than a young lad who's worked his way through the traditional road team system. British cycling are following the rugby route or visa versa!
It would be very interesting to hear G's opinion on this.'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP0 -
http://inrng.com/2015/09/spain-riders-under-30-generation/
Not necessarily the same conclusion or argument as above - and the timing of both the OP and Inrng coincide with Vuelta but weren't we talking about cycling journos watching the forum.
Or is FF the Hyde to Inrng's Jekyll?0 -
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The question is whether this is due to a lack of talent or the current economical situation in Spain and the lack of top level teams, basically only Movistar. Caja Rural has a good amount of youngsters, but there's only so many places at Movistar available after they're all filled up with top older riders after the collapse of the other teams like Euskatel etc
USA have 2 teams and 20 riders
Italy have 1 team and 56 riders
just saying. Not that I have the answer.0 -
The question is whether this is due to a lack of talent or the current economical situation in Spain and the lack of top level teams, basically only Movistar. Caja Rural has a good amount of youngsters, but there's only so many places at Movistar available after they're all filled up with top older riders after the collapse of the other teams like Euskatel etc
USA have 2 teams and 20 riders
Italy have 1 team and 56 riders
just saying. Not that I have the answer.
I have a Spanish friend trying to make it. He says that there are so many fewer places that it is getting limited. The teams were actively saying that if you arent good enough in your early 20's you should maybe think about a different career.
I also think that Spanish (and Italian) are less likely to go down the Belgium route where there are a lot more continental teams.Scott Addict 2011
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The question is whether this is due to a lack of talent or the current economical situation in Spain and the lack of top level teams, basically only Movistar. Caja Rural has a good amount of youngsters, but there's only so many places at Movistar available after they're all filled up with top older riders after the collapse of the other teams like Euskatel etc
USA have 2 teams and 20 riders
Italy have 1 team and 56 riders
just saying. Not that I have the answer.
I have a Spanish friend trying to make it. He says that there are so many fewer places that it is getting limited. The teams were actively saying that if you arent good enough in your early 20's you should maybe think about a different career.
I also think that Spanish (and Italian) are less likely to go down the Belgium route where there are a lot more continental teams.
This is true. Although Spanish riders are quite highly ranked i think they only have 3 teams whereas the UK has 6 (if I counted right, and the Spanish teams are much higher in the rankings).0 -
Regarding Denmark there are not that many people to draw a conclusion from but:
10 riders in PT with an average age of 27.6 and average CQ of 267. Age weighted CQ is 28.6
In the top 300 riders sorted by CQ points irrespective of team there are 103 riders who are not in PT teams. Of those there are only two Danish riders. Anyone know much about Rasmus Guldhammer? Apart from having a wonderful second name he is 5th rider of that list of 103 and actually 51st in the rankings including PT riders. Surprised he hasn't already been picked up by a PT team unless he has? He is only 26.
Just checking on wiki, the guy has been around a while, with a team as early as 2008. He also had a one year HTC contract and was a stagiare for Tinkoff last year. Maybe that is why he hasn't been picked up.Contador is the Greatest0
