I've had nothing to do this lunchtime, given I normally spend this time typing in the days predictions. So, I've been looking at the data instead.
This may only be of interest to me, but I was curious about the collective PTP ability to accurately predict the results. It is just for fun.
I've added up all the points that each rider has accrued and then compared that to the overall volumes predicted for each rider. I was hoping to answer the question "Does Fortune Favour the Brave?"
Its not an in depth analysis, because I am not sure that weighting by individual points is enough, but its a quick view and I did find the answers felt about right.
What I did was compare the percentage of total points earned versus the percentage of total votes cast. Here are the worst performers.
You can see that my analysis is flawed as in order to meet the PTP expectation, Valverde would have had to get four times as many points - Pretty much win every stage. (mind you, he has been a favourite most days)
Sagan and Dumoulin got the same number of points, the reason they are at different ends of the spectrum is that people just believed Sagan would deliver every day.
Chaves got a sudden flurry of picks yesterday (including me) and promptly blew up.
Sbaragli is the surprise for me. I've typed his name into the results 4 times and never noticed him, but he has been a strong points earner.
Finally, Froome and Aru were sitting in the middle. That might change now there are more mountains.
I didn't really realise I was in with a shout for the overall! Annoyed with myself for not picking Roche now for stage 18. On the toss of a metaphorical coin I decided to go a bit leftfield, might live to regret that.
Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RiAwR-q39XubQ-XK88DfPkbiWFZVMsbwPrFVOpLkRI/pubhtml
Degenkolb 18
Sagan 14
Bouhanni 9
Ewan 1
Van Asbroeck 1
Blank 6
Sagan 24
Bouhanni 9
Degenkolb 8
Van Asbroeck 1
blank 6
Valverde 26
Martin 5
Moreno 5
Roche 3
Gerrans 1
Rodriguez 1
Tjaningi 1
Blank 6
Interestingly our leader is not in the peloton...
Excellent example of context advertising there. For me, underneath the pic of Piti was an advert to 'Give Blood'
I've updated the scores, I think you did well with Martin. The 8's stand out clearly from a sea of 4's.
Poor old Smithy21 has been swamped by the peloton.
Aru 7
Chaves 1
Froome 15
Keizer 1
Landa 1
Majka 1
Moreno 2
Pozzovivo 3
Quintana 2
Rodriguez 3
Valverde 6
Bonus stat : 16% of PTP off for a long weekend.
Total carnage on all fronts. :shock:
A nod too, to Milton50 who was the only person, brave enough not to pick Degenkolb, to pick up some points.
At approximately halfway, we have Shazz off the front by 5 points with a group of chasers spread out behind.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RiAwR-q39XubQ-XK88DfPkbiWFZVMsbwPrFVOpLkRI/edit#gid=0
In the spirit of previous PTP'ers, I am trying to provide a little extra info where I can.
This may only be of interest to me, but I was curious about the collective PTP ability to accurately predict the results. It is just for fun.
I've added up all the points that each rider has accrued and then compared that to the overall volumes predicted for each rider. I was hoping to answer the question "Does Fortune Favour the Brave?"
Its not an in depth analysis, because I am not sure that weighting by individual points is enough, but its a quick view and I did find the answers felt about right.
What I did was compare the percentage of total points earned versus the percentage of total votes cast. Here are the worst performers.
Name Votes Points Difference
Valverde 79 21.29% 19 5.41% -15.88%
Sagan 74 19.95% 24 6.84% -13.11%
Degenkolb 47 12.67% 22 6.27% -6.40%
Bouhanni 25 6.74% 8 2.28% -4.46%
Rodriguez 31 8.36% 16 4.56% -3.80%
Here are the best
Name Votes Points Difference
Dumoulin 1 0.27% 24 6.84% 6.57%
Chaves 5 1.35% 23 6.55% 5.20%
Sbaragli 2 0.54% 20 5.70% 5.16%
Stuyven 0.00% 11 3.13% 3.13%
Drucker 0.00% 10 2.85% 2.85%
You can see that my analysis is flawed as in order to meet the PTP expectation, Valverde would have had to get four times as many points - Pretty much win every stage. (mind you, he has been a favourite most days)
Sagan and Dumoulin got the same number of points, the reason they are at different ends of the spectrum is that people just believed Sagan would deliver every day.
Chaves got a sudden flurry of picks yesterday (including me) and promptly blew up.
Sbaragli is the surprise for me. I've typed his name into the results 4 times and never noticed him, but he has been a strong points earner.
Finally, Froome and Aru were sitting in the middle. That might change now there are more mountains.
Degenkolb 28
Rojas 2
Cummings 1
Drucker 1
LL Sanchez 1
Van Winden 1
Number of predictions seems quite low today. (I'll go back later and make sure I've not missed a page!)
Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster