Vuelta PTP Chat

alanp23

Here's a couple of profiles for the overall CG picks and the Stage 1 picks.

Mt Quintana has a fairly nasty looking gradient






PS not doing this every day. Just watching the Belgian GP/cricket

alanp23

Scores after Stage 1

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RiAwR-q39XubQ-XK88DfPkbiWFZVMsbwPrFVOpLkRI/pubhtml

alanp23

Scores updated

alanp23

Today's favourites


Degenkolb 18
Sagan 14
Bouhanni 9
Ewan 1
Van Asbroeck 1
Blank 6

alanp23

Stage 5 predictions...

Sagan 24
Bouhanni 9
Degenkolb 8
Van Asbroeck 1

blank 6

alanp23

Clear PTP favourite for Stage 6.

Valverde 26
Martin 5
Moreno 5
Roche 3
Gerrans 1
Rodriguez 1
Tjaningi 1

Blank 6

Interestingly our leader is not in the peloton...

dish_dash

bothered?

mr_poll

Damn it! I was *honestly* going to go for Chaves thinking he would want another day or two in red. Ah well Martin getting second isnt a bad result.

Richmond Racer 2

[url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19689125#p19689125]dish_dash[/url] wrote:

bothered?

Excellent example of context advertising there. For me, underneath the pic of Piti was an advert to 'Give Blood'

alanp23

[url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19689358#p19689358]mr_poll[/url] wrote:

Damn it! I was *honestly* going to go for Chaves thinking he would want another day or two in red. Ah well Martin getting second isnt a bad result.

I've updated the scores, I think you did well with Martin. The 8's stand out clearly from a sea of 4's.

Poor old Smithy21 has been swamped by the peloton.

smithy21

I can only do so many safe picks before I chuck in a few less likely ones.

alanp23

PTP believe Froome is here to win...

Aru 7
Chaves 1
Froome 15
Keizer 1
Landa 1
Majka 1
Moreno 2
Pozzovivo 3
Quintana 2
Rodriguez 3
Valverde 6

Bonus stat : 16% of PTP off for a long weekend.

alanp23

Absolutely no points earned at all today by anybody...

Total carnage on all fronts. :shock:

alanp23

Congratulations to Stanislav, who was the only person to pick Sbaragli today. A fine individual win.

A nod too, to Milton50 who was the only person, brave enough not to pick Degenkolb, to pick up some points.

At approximately halfway, we have Shazz off the front by 5 points with a group of chasers spread out behind.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RiAwR-q39XubQ-XK88DfPkbiWFZVMsbwPrFVOpLkRI/edit#gid=0

frenchfighter

This is well done alan. I like the bonus stat!

alanp23

Thank you.

In the spirit of previous PTP'ers, I am trying to provide a little extra info where I can.

alanp23

I've had nothing to do this lunchtime, given I normally spend this time typing in the days predictions. So, I've been looking at the data instead.

This may only be of interest to me, but I was curious about the collective PTP ability to accurately predict the results. It is just for fun.

I've added up all the points that each rider has accrued and then compared that to the overall volumes predicted for each rider. I was hoping to answer the question "Does Fortune Favour the Brave?"

Its not an in depth analysis, because I am not sure that weighting by individual points is enough, but its a quick view and I did find the answers felt about right.

What I did was compare the percentage of total points earned versus the percentage of total votes cast. Here are the worst performers.

Name Votes Points Difference
Valverde 79 21.29% 19 5.41% -15.88%
Sagan 74 19.95% 24 6.84% -13.11%
Degenkolb 47 12.67% 22 6.27% -6.40%
Bouhanni 25 6.74% 8 2.28% -4.46%
Rodriguez 31 8.36% 16 4.56% -3.80%

Here are the best

Name Votes Points Difference
Dumoulin 1 0.27% 24 6.84% 6.57%
Chaves 5 1.35% 23 6.55% 5.20%
Sbaragli 2 0.54% 20 5.70% 5.16%
Stuyven 0.00% 11 3.13% 3.13%
Drucker 0.00% 10 2.85% 2.85%

You can see that my analysis is flawed as in order to meet the PTP expectation, Valverde would have had to get four times as many points - Pretty much win every stage. (mind you, he has been a favourite most days)

Sagan and Dumoulin got the same number of points, the reason they are at different ends of the spectrum is that people just believed Sagan would deliver every day.

Chaves got a sudden flurry of picks yesterday (including me) and promptly blew up.

Sbaragli is the surprise for me. I've typed his name into the results 4 times and never noticed him, but he has been a strong points earner.

Finally, Froome and Aru were sitting in the middle. That might change now there are more mountains.

alanp23

Sorry about the formatting. I really need to do a graph.

alanp23

A big vote for Degenkolb today.

Degenkolb 28
Rojas 2
Cummings 1
Drucker 1
LL Sanchez 1
Van Winden 1

Number of predictions seems quite low today. (I'll go back later and make sure I've not missed a page!)

ContrelaMontre

I didn't really realise I was in with a shout for the overall! Annoyed with myself for not picking Roche now for stage 18. On the toss of a metaphorical coin I decided to go a bit leftfield, might live to regret that.

bobmcstuff

The small number of people with Aru for GC must be feeling quite smug! And/or apprehensive...