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Vuelta PTP Chat

alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
edited September 2015 in Pro race
Here's a couple of profiles for the overall CG picks and the Stage 1 picks.

Mt Quintana has a fairly nasty looking gradient






PS not doing this every day. Just watching the Belgian GP/cricket
Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016

Posts

  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Scores updated
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Today's favourites


    Degenkolb 18
    Sagan 14
    Bouhanni 9
    Ewan 1
    Van Asbroeck 1
    Blank 6
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Stage 5 predictions...

    Sagan 24
    Bouhanni 9
    Degenkolb 8
    Van Asbroeck 1

    blank 6
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Clear PTP favourite for Stage 6.

    Valverde 26
    Martin 5
    Moreno 5
    Roche 3
    Gerrans 1
    Rodriguez 1
    Tjaningi 1

    Blank 6

    Interestingly our leader is not in the peloton...
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • dish_dashdish_dash Posts: 5,323
    bothered?

    original.jpg
  • mr_pollmr_poll Posts: 1,547
    Damn it! I was *honestly* going to go for Chaves thinking he would want another day or two in red. Ah well Martin getting second isnt a bad result.
  • bothered?

    original.jpg


    Excellent example of context advertising there. For me, underneath the pic of Piti was an advert to 'Give Blood'

    :lol:
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Damn it! I was *honestly* going to go for Chaves thinking he would want another day or two in red. Ah well Martin getting second isnt a bad result.

    I've updated the scores, I think you did well with Martin. The 8's stand out clearly from a sea of 4's.

    Poor old Smithy21 has been swamped by the peloton.
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • smithy21smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    I can only do so many safe picks before I chuck in a few less likely ones.
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    PTP believe Froome is here to win...

    Aru 7
    Chaves 1
    Froome 15
    Keizer 1
    Landa 1
    Majka 1
    Moreno 2
    Pozzovivo 3
    Quintana 2
    Rodriguez 3
    Valverde 6

    Bonus stat : 16% of PTP off for a long weekend.
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Absolutely no points earned at all today by anybody...

    Total carnage on all fronts. :shock:
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Congratulations to Stanislav, who was the only person to pick Sbaragli today. A fine individual win.

    A nod too, to Milton50 who was the only person, brave enough not to pick Degenkolb, to pick up some points.

    At approximately halfway, we have Shazz off the front by 5 points with a group of chasers spread out behind.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RiAwR-q39XubQ-XK88DfPkbiWFZVMsbwPrFVOpLkRI/edit#gid=0
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • frenchfighterfrenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    This is well done alan. I like the bonus stat!
    Contador is the Greatest
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Thank you.

    In the spirit of previous PTP'ers, I am trying to provide a little extra info where I can.
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    I've had nothing to do this lunchtime, given I normally spend this time typing in the days predictions. So, I've been looking at the data instead.

    This may only be of interest to me, but I was curious about the collective PTP ability to accurately predict the results. It is just for fun.

    I've added up all the points that each rider has accrued and then compared that to the overall volumes predicted for each rider. I was hoping to answer the question "Does Fortune Favour the Brave?"

    Its not an in depth analysis, because I am not sure that weighting by individual points is enough, but its a quick view and I did find the answers felt about right.

    What I did was compare the percentage of total points earned versus the percentage of total votes cast. Here are the worst performers.

    Name Votes Points Difference
    Valverde 79 21.29% 19 5.41% -15.88%
    Sagan 74 19.95% 24 6.84% -13.11%
    Degenkolb 47 12.67% 22 6.27% -6.40%
    Bouhanni 25 6.74% 8 2.28% -4.46%
    Rodriguez 31 8.36% 16 4.56% -3.80%

    Here are the best

    Name Votes Points Difference
    Dumoulin 1 0.27% 24 6.84% 6.57%
    Chaves 5 1.35% 23 6.55% 5.20%
    Sbaragli 2 0.54% 20 5.70% 5.16%
    Stuyven 0.00% 11 3.13% 3.13%
    Drucker 0.00% 10 2.85% 2.85%

    You can see that my analysis is flawed as in order to meet the PTP expectation, Valverde would have had to get four times as many points - Pretty much win every stage. (mind you, he has been a favourite most days)

    Sagan and Dumoulin got the same number of points, the reason they are at different ends of the spectrum is that people just believed Sagan would deliver every day.

    Chaves got a sudden flurry of picks yesterday (including me) and promptly blew up.

    Sbaragli is the surprise for me. I've typed his name into the results 4 times and never noticed him, but he has been a strong points earner.

    Finally, Froome and Aru were sitting in the middle. That might change now there are more mountains.
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    Sorry about the formatting. I really need to do a graph.
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • alanp23alanp23 Posts: 696
    A big vote for Degenkolb today.

    Degenkolb 28
    Rojas 2
    Cummings 1
    Drucker 1
    LL Sanchez 1
    Van Winden 1

    Number of predictions seems quite low today. (I'll go back later and make sure I've not missed a page!)
    Top Ten finisher - PTP Tour of Britain 2016
  • I didn't really realise I was in with a shout for the overall! Annoyed with myself for not picking Roche now for stage 18. On the toss of a metaphorical coin I decided to go a bit leftfield, might live to regret that.

    Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 10,373
    The small number of people with Aru for GC must be feeling quite smug! And/or apprehensive...
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