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The next French Tour Winner

davidofdavidof Posts: 2,369
edited July 2015 in Pro race
So who will end 30 years of pain for the French?

Who will be the next French Tour winner? 55 votes

ALAPHILIPPE Julien
9% 5 votes
BARDET Romain
25% 14 votes
BARGUIL WARREN
7% 4 votes
GALLOPIN Tony
1% 1 vote
PINOT Thibaut
9% 5 votes
PÉRAUD Jean-Christophe
0% 0 votes
ROLLAND Pierre
1% 1 vote
VOEKLER Thommie
0% 0 votes
Has not been born yet
45% 25 votes

Posts

  • TurfleTurfle Posts: 3,762
    I give Bardet the best chance. He seems to have a bit more about him than the others. Alaphilippe the wild card. Pinot the most likely to finish 3rd a lot.
  • The_BoyThe_Boy Posts: 3,099
    Of the current crop, I reckon pink Pinot is the most likely. He'd need a lot of things to go his way for him to actually win though. Serious rub of the green.

    Most likely, the next winner is riding around in the juniors somewhere.
    Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 6,140
    Might be interesting to see Alaphilippe try and become a GC rider and Pinot may have another podium in him one day but agree it's hard to see any of them winning.
    AFC Mercia women - sign for us
  • takethehighroadtakethehighroad Posts: 5,684
    None of the current crop will beat Quintana.

    A better question is how long will it be until French winners are second highest (currently 36 off top of my head)
    My Men 2020 - Mark Cavendish, Ben Swift, Fernando Gaviria, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Vincenzo Nibali, Geraint Thomas.
  • durhamwaspdurhamwasp Posts: 1,235
    As already said, none of the current bunch can beat Froome, or then Quintana. Their only hope is to have a tour where they aren't racing in.
    http://www.snookcycling.wordpress.com - Reports on Cingles du Mont Ventoux, Alpe D'Huez, Galibier, Izoard, Tourmalet, Paris-Roubaix Sportive & Tour of Flanders Sportive, Amstel Gold Xperience, Vosges, C2C, WOTR routes....
  • DeadCalmDeadCalm Posts: 3,676
    Can't see any of the current crop wearing yellow into Paris for at least another 4 or 5 years during which time it ought to be dominated by the current big 4. After that, with Contador retired and Nibali and Froome in their mid thirties, who knows. Maybe Barguil, who will be at his peak, if Quintana has a bad year for some reason.

    The person with the best odds of being the Frenchman who followed the Badger as TDF champion is probably JC Peraud though.
  • timoid.timoid. Posts: 3,133
    None of the current crop.

    When will we see the next Belgian winner? They've had an even longer wait.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • The_BoyThe_Boy Posts: 3,099
    As already said, none of the current bunch can beat Froome, or then Quintana. Their only hope is to have a tour where they aren't racing in.

    They don't necessarily have to though, do they? Sickness, Inuries and off-days can all happen. After all, Nibali has won all three grand tours.
    Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy
  • ProssPross Posts: 24,248
    Barguil looks most likely to me, he seems to be the most mentally tough of those that look like realistic contenders. It's still going to depend on a lot of other factors but I suspect if there's a realistic chance of a French winner ASO will make the course as favourable as possible.
  • dish_dashdish_dash Posts: 4,962
    Barguil looks most likely to me, he seems to be the most mentally tough of those that look like realistic contenders. It's still going to depend on a lot of other factors but I suspect if there's a realistic chance of a French winner ASO will make the course as favourable as possible.

    That's my vote. And pinching from the Cycling Podcast, I do think his riding (for now) with a non-French team is a big positive.
  • knedlickyknedlicky Posts: 3,097
    Bardet has the necessary tactical nouse and mental toughness, but only stands a chance in a Tour without a TT, while for Pinot to win, he could do with a couple of MTF stages in bad weather, and both a change of attitude (his ambition) and still an improvement in his downhilling.

    Barguil may still improve to become a possible Tour winner, but for now looks more like a winner of prestige stages, like Rolland attempts to do.
    Gallopin is a better bet for one-week tours.

    I’d put Tour-stage-8-winner Vuillermoz in the list instead of Voeckler and Peraud. Not that he’s likely to win the Tour, but he’s younger than those two (so has time on his side) and he’s done okay in his GTs considering he was only ever a ‘helper’ to bigger names.
    Most likely, the next winner is riding around in the juniors somewhere.
    Still an amateur and only 22, Calmejane could be the name for the future.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,664 Lives Here
    None of the current crop.

    When will we see the next Belgian winner? They've had an even longer wait.

    The day winning Flanders isn't the main objective for every wannabe junior cyclist coming out of there.
  • ProssPross Posts: 24,248
    Barguil looks most likely to me, he seems to be the most mentally tough of those that look like realistic contenders. It's still going to depend on a lot of other factors but I suspect if there's a realistic chance of a French winner ASO will make the course as favourable as possible.

    That's my vote. And pinching from the Cycling Podcast, I do think his riding (for now) with a non-French team is a big positive.

    Yeah, that was the other point I was going to make. It takes a bit of pressure off.
  • davidofdavidof Posts: 2,369

    I’d put Tour-stage-8-winner Vuillermoz in the list instead of Voeckler and Peraud.

    I put Voeckler in as a joke, although he did wear the YJ in 2011 and came close. I think 2015 might have been his last tour anyway.

    I voted for Bardet but maybe at another team. I suspect French teams are holding the French back.
  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,228
    the current crop fall way short of what is required. I do like Bardet as a rider though. Good at pretty much everything except time trialling. Rolland is a very good rider with no tactical savvy. Pinot is hilariously bad downhill. Barguil needs to grow a bit as a rider.
  • jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,456
    Alaphillipe for me. @markwb79 told me he was pretty special.
  • davidofdavidof Posts: 2,369
    Alaphillipe for me. @markwb79 told me he was pretty special.

    2 years in the French Army, should have hardened him up a bit.
  • mr_goomr_goo Posts: 3,757
    Bardet could win a GT I think, but only if he is riding for Sky, Tinkoff, Astana or Movistar.
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.

  • I’d put Tour-stage-8-winner Vuillermoz in the list instead of Voeckler and Peraud.

    I put Voeckler in as a joke, although he did wear the YJ in 2011 and came close. I think 2015 might have been his last tour anyway.

    I voted for Bardet but maybe at another team. I suspect French teams are holding the French back.

    Not sure how you can say that especially about Ag2R Lavenu has got the best out of them ( and with a no showing Betancur - the supposed GC rider!) Bardet Peraud Vuillermoz and Cherel all showing well. And they were the best team last year

    A good article in L Equipe about Lavenu turning teams around and finding their strengths Surely Peraud wont ride next year so that leaves space for a proper climbing domestic - or even get Betancur to do it - he owes them!
  • Bardet could win a GT I think, but only if he is riding for Sky, Tinkoff, Astana or Movistar.

    Bardet paid his own money for wind tunnel testing ( in the UK) for tt position - but still lost too much in the opening tt

    He looks more like a racer to me than someone who is going to follow team wheels all day
  • davidofdavidof Posts: 2,369

    A good article in L Equipe about Lavenu turning teams around and finding their strengths Surely Peraud wont ride next year so that leaves space for a proper climbing domestic - or even get Betancur to do it - he owes them!

    Things like Julien Pinot saying a number of French teams don't even have someone capable of interpreting a power file. Too conservative and too much of a NIH syndrome in France with respect to anything new.

    Be good to see Betancur at the Vuelta. He should enjoy the paella!
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