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Is it over for Cavendish.....?

edited July 2015 in Pro race
.....I mean as a dominant force in sprinting...one win this Tour and he didn't look close really today,and with Kittel to come back sometime soon presumably..people with greater knowledge than me can maybe see things I don't that suggest otherwise...but just wondering.
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  • salsiccia1salsiccia1 Posts: 3,520
    Wasn't he ill today?

    I don't think he's finished, but he'll won't be the dominant force he once was.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • norvernrobnorvernrob Posts: 1,410
    35 Tour stages look pretty much out of reach now. He's not THE dominant force he was, but he can still be one of them for a couple more years. The days of winning pretty much every sprint stage have gone certainly, there's just too much talent now and he seems to have lost that second kick that won him so many races.
  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,228
    He's been ill. In a contest against Greipel or Kittel it's uncertain, but he's still faster than the rest if his positioning is right and he's fit... So no, not yet.
  • t4tomot4tomo Posts: 2,643
    Can't judge him on not being 100% and Renshawless today. Hard to see him taking 4 and 5 stages per tour again as with Kittle Greipel Degankomp (sp) etc there is tough competition. But I reckon he'll keep picking up 1-3 stages per tour for a while yet.
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  • durhamwaspdurhamwasp Posts: 1,235
    It looked all over 2 years back, certainly his best days are well behind him and Merckx's record is safe.
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  • It looked all over 2 years back, certainly his best days are well behind him and Merckx's record is safe.

    Depends what you judge to be a proper stage. He already holds the record for most TDF race stage wins. Merckx is ahead because of TTs only.
  • Can't judge him on not being 100% and Renshawless today. Hard to see him taking 4 and 5 stages per tour again as with Kittle Greipel Degankomp (sp) etc there is tough competition. But I reckon he'll keep picking up 1-3 stages per tour for a while yet.

    Renshaw being absent isn't a negative.
  • I think Cav will continue to win stages, but he isn't the dominant force he was and future TdF wins will be situational and less frequent. He isn't a 2nd tier sprinter yet, but it's clear that he is on the decline. You can't stay the best for ever.

    Griepel has benefited from Kittel's absence. I would place the order as Kittel > Griepel > Cavendish > Everyone else

    I will be interested to see what Cav does in the future. I would like to see him redefine himself as a different type of rider, but I'm not sure what that should be.
  • fleshtuxedofleshtuxedo Posts: 1,823
    It'll be interesting to see what comes from the current contract renegotiations with EQS. realistically, he'll do well to keep getting the kind of support he has for the last few years. A move to a smaller team? Maybe. Will that press the need to win other ways than bunch sprints? Can he do that?
  • hypsterhypster Posts: 1,183
    It looked all over 2 years back, certainly his best days are well behind him and Merckx's record is safe.

    Depends what you judge to be a proper stage. He already holds the record for most TDF race stage wins. Merckx is ahead because of TTs only.

    The implication being that these are somehow easier and less worthy? Jeez!

    I like Cavendish but I hope he doesn't beat Merckx's record as he's just a sprinter.
  • mm1mm1 Posts: 1,101
    For someone who seemingly needs to be racing off his emotions, it's been a tough couple of years for Cav. He nearly always seems to struggle for that first win and sadly this year there were not the stages, nor did he have the form needed to capitalise on the confidence generated by that first stage win. Off course he'll be back and there's no reason why it shouldn't be to produce a stampede of wins similar to what Griepel has done this year. Of course I'd love to see him branch out into competing in a broader range of the classics, but that's me being an unrealistic fan.
  • CrozzaCrozza Posts: 991
    dunno. what is he, 30 now? but then Greipel (33) and, ahem, Gatlin have shown what a sprinter of advancing years can achieve

    maybe he needs to work harder - Greipel and Kittel always turn up ripped to the bone but with Cav we are always checking for the size of his paunch
  • disgruntledgoatdisgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    He does seem to get sick a lot these days...
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  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,086
    He's a fading force. Just like Greipel was a month ago.
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  • dinyulldinyull Posts: 2,962
    His train has been non-existent this year, and the tour team was built around him. In 3 years they are yet to get it right.

    Having said that I still think he's behind Kittel and other teams take the sprints far more seriously these days. In his pomp it was his train and maybe one other, now it's 4 or 5 teams vying for position.

    Hope he doesn't re-up with EQS, think he needs to be in a smaller team that give him his full attention, like Highroad did.
  • smithy21smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    ^ but would a small team gamble on him now. He would still be a significant part of their budget and putting all your eggs in that particular basket would be a bold call at this stage of his career.

    It might be my imagination but do race organisers prefer a bit of a lumpier sprint stage now so with more uphill drag finishes? I prefer these as there is the prospect of not all the sprinters making it to the finish together and if they do some being a bit more tired therefore making things a bit more uncertain.
  • dinyulldinyull Posts: 2,962
    Is it much of a gamble for a top 3 sprinter? Probably top 2 with a committed team.

    Plus he guarantees headlines/exposure so you'd be getting your moneys worth, even if he doesn't perform.
  • sherersherer Posts: 2,430
    he's not the same force he once was but still a decent sprinter.

    As others have said I've wondered if he could turn himself into another sort of rider, maybe like Thor Husvold and see if he could become a rider for PR or the classics. Does he want to do that or just stay a sprinter and then maybe drop down the order and become a lead out man.
  • supermurph09supermurph09 Posts: 2,471
    Over for Cavendish, IMO certainly not. He's still capable of beating the top guys but I think you always feel with Cav that things have to be just right now. He's suffered from illness on the Tour, that has robbed him of at least one stage, previously he could have been 95% fit and still beat the rest, now he needs to be at 100%, as do all the rest.

    His train has been poor, his decision making (no doubt caused by the poor train or did that crash last year take something from him) has looked a little off too. But the biggest factor seems to be that he has lost weight. I'm sure this was done given the profile this year, but clearly it's cost him a few watts. You only have to look through Cav's history, some of his positioning in the final has been sublime, it really is an art form that seems to get overlooked.

    So tactically he needs to get back to his best, maybe add a kilo or 2 back on and see what happens.
  • Long term yes I think Cavendish is not as dominant as he was.

    I think Etix have shown their future intention with the signing of Fernando Gavira who outsprinted Cav in the Tour de San Luis earlier this year.

    If Cav re-signs he will be the protected Sprinter in the 2016 TdF while Gavira is riding the Olympics but it 2017 I see Gavira being where they concentrate their sprinting efforts
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  • earthearth Posts: 934
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.
  • fleshtuxedofleshtuxedo Posts: 1,823
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.

    He's had three years since then! You can't blame his form this year on his training in 2012, it just doesn't work like that.
  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,228
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.

    He's had three years since then! You can't blame his form this year on his training in 2012, it just doesn't work like that.

    True, and that year was specifically to enable him to get over the box hil loop, and be able to contest the final sprint that never materialised in the olympics as well as get him over the hills in the tour 2012, I still remember the stage 18 which he would never have won if he'd have been as he was before....
    He's always been able to put out 1500 watts ish for 15 or so seconds, which is what marks him out as special, as he can do it in a super aero manner. Greipel and Kittel are more powerful, but also much larger and far less aero.
  • slowbikeslowbike Posts: 8,495
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.
    The 2012 Sky leadout for Cav down the Champs Elysees was superb - watching the whole tour-winning team along with the yellow jersey go flat out to launch him to the sprint was amazing. The yellow may have been decided, but team is team - unfortunately Cav didn't have that this year ...
    IMHO, it's a pity that Sky sauntered across the line rather than put a lineout to put Luke Rowe in the mix for the finish - he may not have won, but it would've contributed to the specacle.
  • gsk82gsk82 Posts: 2,707
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.

    He's not had a year as good as that since he joined EQS. EQS are the problem, not Sky
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  • DL1987DL1987 Posts: 204
    I don't think Cavendish ever recovered from joining Team Sky. The worst career move he could have made where he trained to improve his power/weight ratio. That is an important ratio for a climber but a sprinter has to improve their power/drag ratio as they are aiming for top speed. He will find it difficult to out-sprint his competitors without that power.
    The 2012 Sky leadout for Cav down the Champs Elysees was superb - watching the whole tour-winning team along with the yellow jersey go flat out to launch him to the sprint was amazing. The yellow may have been decided, but team is team - unfortunately Cav didn't have that this year ...
    IMHO, it's a pity that Sky sauntered across the line rather than put a lineout to put Luke Rowe in the mix for the finish - he may not have won, but it would've contributed to the specacle.

    I think that was down to the stray McDonald's carrier bag that got caught in Froome's rear wheel. Not saying they'd have led out for a sprint but it's the reason they were so far back.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 10,951
    Is he riding the Vuelta?
  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,228
    Is he riding the Vuelta?
    i think he should. not that that matters!
  • Dunno, but he's back in action on Sunday, riding the Surrey lanes
  • salsiccia1salsiccia1 Posts: 3,520
    Dunno, but he's back in action on Sunday, riding the Surrey lanes

    Makes sense now. He was just using the Tour as prep.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
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