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the unpredictability of a Grand Tour

ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,618
edited July 2015 in Pro race
Who would have thought that a Giro with only Contador as a big name would turn out so entertaining and nail biting even for the GC?

Who would have thought that with the all magnificent 4 on the start line, the Tour would end after the first summit finish?

It just goes to show how unpredictable cycling is: sometimes exciting beyond expectations, other times disappointing beyond belief

Posts

  • inseineinseine Posts: 5,763
    You make it sound like it was over in a day whereas we were all on the edges of of seats for the first week.
    I hope it's not all over and even if Froome does take it I'd like to think there'd be a bit of a fight for the other top spots. 2 to 6 is very close but there seems to be a reluctance to attack outside the Moviestar duo.
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,782
    Isn't this just down to expectation? The Giro didn't have much star quality so your expectations were lower.

    For the Tour, in everyones heads it's going to be this epic 4 way battle, but what is the realistic chance of that ever happening? There's always likely to be 1 guy better than the rest. People even attempted "scripting" the exciting race where Froome and Quintana lose time in the northern stages and then launch lots of attacks to take the time back.

    It's almost like they've never seen the TdF before
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 6,261
    I reckon there was a realistic expectation that Quintana, Froome and Contador would be relatively well matched. OK so it hasn't turned out that way and I don't think anyone thought it was nailed on that it would be a thriller but I didn't see so many posts pre-race saying the gaps in the GC would be so convincing after one mountain stage.
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  • FJSFJS Posts: 4,820
    I reckon there was a realistic expectation that Quintana, Froome and Contador would be relatively well matched. OK so it hasn't turned out that way and I don't think anyone thought it was nailed on that it would be a thriller but I didn't see so many posts pre-race saying the gaps in the GC would be so convincing after one mountain stage.
    They're only so convincing because the rider doing best in the mountains also lost least time in the first week. That's been the unpredictable bit of this TdF. That, and Nibali's collapse
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,211
    Was the Giro nail biting? Before the start everyone said Contador would win. And then Contador won. And he never looked like he wouldn't.
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  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 9,088
    Was the Giro nail biting? Before the start everyone said Contador would win. And then Contador won. And he never looked like he wouldn't.

    FF mentioned this in the other thread, I went back over some of the stage results and it was a good race, to be fair.

    The bit on Stage 20 where he was dropping time like (insert witty metaphor here) was pretty nail biting! And the bit where Astana tried to drop him after a mechanical and then he came back and thumped them was exciting too (there was more).

    I would have preferred it if Contador had won a stage or two, but hey ho.
  • ThomThomThomThom Posts: 3,574
    Was the Giro nail biting? Before the start everyone said Contador would win. And then Contador won. And he never looked like he wouldn't.

    But.. but this is simply not true, though.
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,618
    It's all still open, in theory, but I can't see a scenario where things change without having to wish bad luck to Froome. His margin is enough to ride with cruise control on over the whole of the alps.

    In my opinion it has been disappointing in that respect, as none of the other three showed any sign of form whatsoever.

    The Giro was a crescendo of emotions, just when everybody thought Contador had it in the bag so easy and Aru was the pale shadow of himself, things took a dramatic turn. The difference is that Contador had a weak team, while Froome has the best one.

    I fear what is left in this race is a parade towards Paris "a la Armstrong". In fact thrashing everybody on the first climb and then controlling the race was exactly what Lance used to do.
  • imatfaalimatfaal Posts: 2,716
    Was the Giro nail biting? Before the start everyone said Contador would win. And then Contador won. And he never looked like he wouldn't.

    FF mentioned this in the other thread, I went back over some of the stage results and it was a good race, to be fair.

    The bit on Stage 20 where he was dropping time like (insert witty metaphor here) was pretty nail biting! And the bit where Astana tried to drop him after a mechanical and then he came back and thumped them was exciting too (there was more).

    I would have preferred it if Contador had won a stage or two, but hey ho.

    I also seem to remember posts here along the lines of "well the Giro was great - and with such a good field in the tour..."

    The Mortirolo was a great day's viewing. It is just great to see GC contenders out by themselves smashing up hills to catch/distance/limit loses

    And to be honest I have really enjoyed the TdF so far. 4 cracking stages at the beginning, the team time trial was nail-biting as ever, Gorilla in Green, Cav winning a stage, Sagan being Sagan.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 52,006 Lives Here
    GTs are the most predictable of all the races from a GC perspective, since all the of the noise down to tactics/chance get ironed over the 3 week period.
  • sherersherer Posts: 2,434
    it's a bit of a shame there is no real battle for any of the other jerseys other than Green.

    There is still a bit of a fight going on lower down the GC so hopefully when we hit the alps we will get some racing going for that
  • ridgeriderridgerider Posts: 2,811
    Who would have thought that a Giro with only Contador as a big name would turn out so entertaining and nail biting even for the GC?

    Who would have thought that with the all magnificent 4 on the start line, the Tour would end after the first summit finish?

    It just goes to show how unpredictable cycling is: sometimes exciting beyond expectations, other times disappointing beyond belief

    So what you are saying is that by being unpredictable, the Tour has become predictable???
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  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 25,618
    Who would have thought that a Giro with only Contador as a big name would turn out so entertaining and nail biting even for the GC?

    Who would have thought that with the all magnificent 4 on the start line, the Tour would end after the first summit finish?

    It just goes to show how unpredictable cycling is: sometimes exciting beyond expectations, other times disappointing beyond belief

    So what you are saying is that by being unpredictable, the Tour has become predictable???

    Basically yes..
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    Was the Giro nail biting? Before the start everyone said Contador would win. And then Contador won. And he never looked like he wouldn't.

    That's basically how I remember it. It looked like it was going to be close until Porte had his time penalty. After that Contador never looked like being beaten in the mountains and absolutely smashed everyone in the time trial. He had a wobble on the last stage when he was already 4.5 minutes ahead.

    It was a great race from a cycling perspective but I don't remember the GC battle being particularly exciting.
  • robnewcastlerobnewcastle Posts: 214
    The second round of mountain stages late in the tour is often more exciting because riders are more tired and therefore more likely to crack and/or riders are more likely to take chances and go for broke for GC ambitions. You often get the feeling that apart from the opening mountain stage, the others are more cagey with riders unwilling to show all their cards or burn too many matches.

    I think the Alps next week will throw up some surprised for these reasons.
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