judging the weather

ben@31

wishitwasallflat wrote:

Ahh.... but you both appear to fail to recognise that the Russian Roulette scenario is just determined by the objective mathematics of probability whereas weather related accidents are affected by testosterone levels (allegedly).

Can you not say the probability of weather related accidents is low or lower, in some parts of the UK on some days this month, because there is no ice or snow? Yesterday it was 5 deg C no rain with sunny spells, tomorrow forecast 7 deg C.

"To reap great rewards, you need to take some risk". If you stayed at home in bubble-wrap then you'll never achieve anything. I suppose it's all about managing that risk.

meanredspider

ben@31 wrote:

wishitwasallflat wrote:

Ahh.... but you both appear to fail to recognise that the Russian Roulette scenario is just determined by the objective mathematics of probability whereas weather related accidents are affected by testosterone levels (allegedly).

Can you not say the probability of weather related accidents is low or lower, in some parts of the UK on some days this month, because there is no ice or snow? Yesterday it was 5 deg C no rain with sunny spells, tomorrow forecast 7 deg C.

"To reap great rewards, you need to take some risk". If you stayed at home in bubble-wrap then you'll never achieve anything. I suppose it's all about managing that risk.

If the weather is good (ie no ice) then you really aren't taking any risks. From my point of view, there's no "great rewards" from riding a road bike on ice. In fact, the great rewards I reaped was from leaving the V in the garage and from taking the Spikered MTB out on the fire roads. Beautiful.

wishitwasallflat

ben@31 wrote:

"To reap great rewards, you need to take some risk". If you stayed at home in bubble-wrap then you'll never achieve anything. I suppose it's all about managing that risk.

Mmm ... Angels 2015 and 9 Hammers while wrapped in bubble wrap (or even unwrapped for that matter) - or - cycling with due caution on slippy roads?

Which would yield the most training benefit, discuss?

ben@31

wishitwasallflat wrote:

ben@31 wrote:

"To reap great rewards, you need to take some risk". If you stayed at home in bubble-wrap then you'll never achieve anything. I suppose it's all about managing that risk.

Mmm ... Angels 2015 and 9 Hammers while wrapped in bubble wrap (or even unwrapped for that matter) - or - cycling with due caution on slippy roads?

Which would yield the most training benefit, discuss?

The point I am making (again) is the roads are not necessary slippy just because it is January, its hasn't dropped below 4 degC over the past few nights in some parts. Each to their own but my own personal opinion is a turbo trainer is just pretending to be outside cycling, so you might as well be out anyway, as the best training for cycling outside is... cycling outside. Even if you are cycling more relaxed rather than giving it balls out 100%, doesn't mean there is NO benefit.

My thought process "Is there any snow or ice on the roads I cycle on, yes / no ?"
"No"
"Cycle outside".

dodgy

ben@31 wrote:

The point I am making (again) is the roads are not necessary slippy just because it is January,

Has anyone actually said that? Would appreciate an answer, ta.

wishitwasallflat

ben@31 wrote:

My thought process "Is there any snow or ice on the roads I cycle on, yes / no ?"
"No"
"Cycle outside".

I agree - but - this thread started with a question about how to judge the weather and took an interesting detour into MTFU territory. thats when my interest was triggered.

Personally when there is no snow or ice on the road I completely agree, it's an easy decision. I too much prefer proper cycling and only use the turbo as a last resort. What is tricky (and may I remind you we are on the Beginners Forum here?) are the borderline weather circumstances which can lead, for example, to largely clear and safe roads but with some patches of ice (north facing slopes, hollows, shady dips etc etc), very strong (and particularily gusty unpredictable) winds etc. That's when making judgements about the weather takes care and sharing experience can be very helpful to beginners.

Im not looking for aarguement with you (as I say I think we appear to largely agree) its the posting of MTFU as advice on a Beginners Forum thread, in the context of this question, that I was taking a poke at! Frankly I think its irresponsible to suggest that.

w00dster

One thing that beginners should think about is even when the roads in the towns look pretty much ice or frost free, out in the countryside things can be different. I ride in Bucks/Herts and the smaller roads get the run off from the farmers fields and this can be icey, even when the roads at home are fine.
Generally I'll ride in most conditions, as others are saying the roads can be used if you apply caution, look ahead and pick your line. Our group ride on Sunday had to get off and walk on a downhill section due to ice formed from the water run off a farmers field.
This weekend looks like it could be a bad one, I'll be out on my cyclocross bike (35c knobbly tyres, not imune to ice - but I can't stand the turbo). Ride safe folks.

dodgy

dodgy wrote:

ben@31 wrote:

The point I am making (again) is the roads are not necessary slippy just because it is January,

Has anyone actually said that? Would appreciate an answer, ta.

You must have missed my question, here it is again.

bianchimoon

I use XC weather mainly for wind strength, and tailor the ride to the conditions, out every wed night winter or summer for group ride, if it's snowy - icy then I take the MTB, not overly keen on being attached to the pedals in icy conditions,

w00dster

Checked the BBC weather app this morning, showed as being 1 degree and dry (6-7am in vliiage outside Milton Keynes)
Due to the previous days sleet the roads were like ice. I made it about 500 metres, roads were like glass. Went down on a downhill S Bend. Luckily it was a slo-mo fall as I was gingerly going round the corner - walking back up the hill pushing my bike home and the bike was slipping everywhere, so think I made the right decision to go back home and drive to work.
This was on my crossbike with my 35C knobbly tyres.

I'm obviously not man enough and its all down to my cr@p bike handling skills I guess.

Bordersroadie

Rick Chasey wrote:

ianbar wrote:

what are your ways of judging how safe it is to ride? i expected it to be lethal all day today but in hindsight i could have probably gone out mid morning before we have snowy showers. but how do you judge it?

MTFU.

Well done for offering the most colossally idiotic advice. It would be funny were it not for the fact that this is the beginners section and the OP was asking for genuine advice and help.

Assuming that with a risk of ice, one decides to "chance it", not ending up in A&E is down purely to luck, not skill, and especially not the size of one's testicles. One crash may be a bruised thigh, the next can be a broken pelvis or shoulder, skill or machismo is not a factor. When your front wheel goes on ice, you hit the deck before you can even think "unclip" and it makes no difference what your road speed is because it's the vertical distance that you fall that hurts you.

If there's a chance of ice on the road, there are only two sane options.

1. Don't ride
2. Ride with studded ice tyres.

Kieran_Burns

Bordersroadie wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

ianbar wrote:

what are your ways of judging how safe it is to ride? i expected it to be lethal all day today but in hindsight i could have probably gone out mid morning before we have snowy showers. but how do you judge it?

MTFU.

Well done for offering the most colossally idiotic advice. It would be funny were it not for the fact that this is the beginners section and the OP was asking for genuine advice and help.

Assuming that with a risk of ice, one decides to "chance it", not ending up in A&E is down purely to luck, not skill, and especially not the size of one's testicles. One crash may be a bruised thigh, the next can be a broken pelvis or shoulder, skill or machismo is not a factor. When your front wheel goes on ice, you hit the deck before you can even think "unclip" and it makes no difference what your road speed is because it's the vertical distance that you fall that hurts you.

If there's a chance of ice on the road, there are only two sane options.

1. Don't ride
2. Ride with studded ice tyres.
3. Ride in the fields.

FTFY

Bordersroadie

You're right mate, I forgot option 3!