General Election 2015
morstar
Posts: 4,663
Anybody care to call it?
Hopefully the thread won't just go completely partisan but that's a risk I have to face.
Here's my take.
Conservatives: No chance of an overall majority. Incumbent party generally loses popularity in power and they couldn't even win outright last time vs a Labour party on the ropes with an unpopular leader.
Labour: People deserted them 5 years ago and they don't seem to be generating any momentum. Far too soon for a popular vote to give them an overall majority. Loss of votes in Scotland.
Lib Dem: Some sort of resurgence come May or genuinely dead and buried? Definitely a lot less seats.
UKIP: Seriously scary momentum. Is it a protest vote or not? Why does the working man vote for a party that aside from one anti immigration policy has no common interests with them?
SNP. Proper player in Westminster.
It's a fascinating and scary prospect. I can't see a two party majority government being achieved unless UKIP carve up a huge amount of votes from traditional Labour voters. Suspect it will be a totally hung parliament with 4 significant representations, Lib Dems not one of them.
Or will it all just revert to type because people fear their traditional enemy enough to not take a risk.
Maybe this is the genuine shake up that will really drive a change from the comfortable two party system with lots of safe seats.
Hopefully the thread won't just go completely partisan but that's a risk I have to face.
Here's my take.
Conservatives: No chance of an overall majority. Incumbent party generally loses popularity in power and they couldn't even win outright last time vs a Labour party on the ropes with an unpopular leader.
Labour: People deserted them 5 years ago and they don't seem to be generating any momentum. Far too soon for a popular vote to give them an overall majority. Loss of votes in Scotland.
Lib Dem: Some sort of resurgence come May or genuinely dead and buried? Definitely a lot less seats.
UKIP: Seriously scary momentum. Is it a protest vote or not? Why does the working man vote for a party that aside from one anti immigration policy has no common interests with them?
SNP. Proper player in Westminster.
It's a fascinating and scary prospect. I can't see a two party majority government being achieved unless UKIP carve up a huge amount of votes from traditional Labour voters. Suspect it will be a totally hung parliament with 4 significant representations, Lib Dems not one of them.
Or will it all just revert to type because people fear their traditional enemy enough to not take a risk.
Maybe this is the genuine shake up that will really drive a change from the comfortable two party system with lots of safe seats.
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Posts
The protest votes will waver so it will be Conservative + whoever, or Labour + whoever.
Too close to call.
I am not sure. You have no chance.
If we end up with a situation where UKIP / Cons together outnumber the rest but wont join in govt. we could end up with a real mess and an early rerun of the election under the provisions of the Parliament Act.
Tories: I don't think they really have people's trust on a wide range of issues.
Lib Dems: I feel (a bit) sorry for them. Back in the early 2000's they were the only one of the big 3 parties to predict that our debt-driven economy would crash and burn and the only party to pledge in their manifestos to regulate to prevent this. If they had been in coalition with Labour from 2001-5, we might not be in the mess we find ourselves today. They're still going to get a good kicking next year, though.
Greens: Could well win a few seats.
UKIP: Depends how much scrutiny they come under. If they keep getting Tory defectors, surely at some point Labour voters will turn their backs on them. Whether or not they come to an electoral agreement with the Tories could decide the outcome of the election.
SNP: Will take out Labour in Scotland.
PC: Same old, same old. A few seats.
So I'll say that a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/PC/Green coalition will just about scrape in.
Of course this is a negative because it breeds ill feeling and doesn't really get us all to the place we would like to all be but what other choice is their ?
The problem is that I have the answers (as does anyone with common sense) but these don't sit well with many voters which is why the very simple things needed to start the ball rolling will never get done.
Lets see what we could quickly do.
1) Alcohol abuse - costs the NHS £3,000,000,000.00 per year
a) Make people pay for their own treatment, wether thats drunks paying for A&E or people with liver issues paying for treatment and care.
2) Drug abuse - cost in crime alone £16,000,000,000.00
a) pay for their treatment, make more treatment orders and increase the proceeds of crime act to remove wealth from banking and funds.
3) Increase MP's wages
a) I would like to think that if they were paid a salary equal to those in business of their level they would feel more comfortable in doing the job they were empowered to do and look at less "fruity" options.
I am not sure. You have no chance.
General elections are nothing like any other election. People may talk Labour, think LD but vote Conservative. In my view its all about who the population will rate and trust as a potential person to run the country.
Milliband. Not unless he is allowed to put his brother's name on the ballot paper.
Farage. Would be a serious contender for power sharing if the Scots had voted yes, but they didn't.
Clegg. Reached his peak during the last election's debates and will never be as highly rated ever again.
Cameron. With the lot above to compete with, how can he lose? And, most importantly, he has been in the job a while and we are all still breathing. For every example one person can quote telling you how badly he has done there are just as many who will remember the joys of Tony B who is now one of the world's leading capitalists.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
http://electionsetc.com/
http://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts.html
The bookies are saying the same:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-majority
(with the shortest odds still on Ed Milliband as the next PM).
I really can't see Labour being a threat at the next election, they really are in the middle of perfect storm of bad circumstances. The only reason they got in to begin with was with the right-leaning Blair. He then p1ssed a load of Labour backers off with his war on terror and then the most traditional of Labour voters by not caring they were the hardest hit by immigration. They then went on to elect the wrong Milliband as their leader who barely seems capable of holding onto what's left let alone winning any of the aformentioned back. Coupled along with most likely losing lots of seats in Scotland they may very well be looking for a paddle next May whilst up in censored creek.
It's going to be interesting, although not necessarily very good for us as a country.
Indeed. But the SNP are set to become a major force hence the rumblings post referendum.
The SNP have no need to build any coalition and have recently said so.
This leaves the two traditional powerhouses with far fewer seats than they may be familiar with, even in opposition years.
The question is where the conservative vote splits, does Labour gain seats with low percentage votes or does the Labour vote continue to swing towards UKIP also leaving some very tight 3 horse races.
I think Labour can only hope to lead a coalition of a lot of parties as suggested by Johnfinch or the Conservatives + UKIP could scrape a majority but it's going to be seriously messy politics. Either a very indecisive coalition or a ridiculous squabble over Europe.
If it does get really messy, does proportional representation become more or less likely as a future possibility when fptp no longer suits the biggest parties so well.
Mixed feelings. Agree it will in the short term but...
arguably a more collaborative form of government with less drastic swings of power theoretically promotes more long term thinking than 5 year cycles.
I think the PR thing is unlikely but, supposing we really have reached the end of two party politics; all of a sudden having seats that reflect your vote share becomes more appealing than all or nothing scenarios when there are no longer lots of safe seats in the bank.
No, you missed a trick there' Legalise it and get the tax revenue off it. It costs the state £47k per year to put someone on methodone which doesn't work. I have known guys who have been on md scripts for years where the French use morphine and get them off in a matter of weeks. Pharmacies are paid in the region of £110k a year to dispense the stuff. Imagine the profit shortfall of the Pharmaceutical companies if we switched to medicinal morphine? If you see what I mean.
Pay the Taliban for x kg's of Heroin and $35 for their Kalashnikov's whilst your at it thereby ending the Afghanistan problem - they can't grow anything else. If some 'infidel' pointed a gun in my face telling me I can't grow my cash crop, I must burn it and then somehow feed my family, on account of some silly low life miles away in the West who get hooked on smack, i'd pick up a gun.
Charging them a fee won't make the slightest bit of difference and you'll end up with 'druggies' dead on the pavement and in the parks and houses they occupy. Maybe crime will rocket when 'druggies' go into A & E unconscious and then get landed a bill on the way out that they cannot pay .
Fat people abuse their bodies - are you going to charge them for treatment as well? Where do you draw the line?
There is far too little on preventative medicine. I would like to see more emphasis on diet and lifestyle instead of constantly fire fighting:
Compulsory school meals and more sport, home economics back into the syllabus etc, after all, the NHS was formed to deal with poor public health from the ground up, Rickets and the like as well as treating the sick.
Personally, the NHS and Education should be run by independent bodies so that what are two critical elements of our society, are no longer used as political footballs.
It's a difficult one to call that's for sure but last poll I saw they had a 4 point lead and generally it takes fewer votes to elect a Labour MP than a Tory MP.
I just wonder who will form a coalition with the Tories next time because they wont have won an outright majority for 23 years and unless they are going to pal up with UKIP I can't see any of the others joining them in government.
Taking away SNP MP's vote on English matters will make zero difference as they won't vote anyway.
I predict a comfortable SNP win in Scotland and a lot of uncomfortable bed partners in Westminster come June.
The SNP will then start asking the question, better together? And build up to another referendum.
With the mess that could result in Westminster, I wouldn't blame them.
MPs better learn how to work in a centralist coalition quickly or there could be a sh!tstorm. I cannot think of two parties who would comfortably work together and form a majority as things are just now.
PS:- And probably due another thread, but I predict a recession in 2015.
I am not sure. You have no chance.
As the poster above said the idea of making people pay for drink and drug related costs is unworkable - what do you do when people can't pay - let them die ? put them in jail ?
As for MPs wages - as we've seen in the banking sector paying people lots of money is not a guarantee of competency, honesty or attracting more able people in general. It's a complete red herring and I'd much rather people were attracted to being MPs by the opportunity to serve others than serve their own bank balance.
I think vtech has a point, I listened to an AE nurse say about how demoralising it was to work a w/e shift and see the same people week in/out turning up bladdered, there r issues with how this would be enforced but we cannot keep up this model of the nhs, its just unsustainable and the services it offers are way over and above what it was originally set up for, ukip got slated for suggesting an insurance aspect to health care but other countries with equally good or better health care systems do this, the French system is rated the best in the world, albeit at a much higher gdp cost but its better and that's the point.
as for MPs pay, these guys have to work in London, and 65k is nothing, so the mps have several 2nd jobs and fix their expenses to make up what they think they should be on, also, the people it attracts are possibly only those who can afford to work for a relatively small wage.
As for the election, lib/dems no MPs, the result will be a labour/snp/green coalition or minority Government with SNP in tacit support, with the first casualty Myleen Klass fleeing to Barbados.
'£65k is nothing, though it's a vast amount more than most of you earn, so we have to fiddle expenses to make a nice living'.
In what world is £65k 'nothing' or 'a relatively small wage'?
I am not sure. You have no chance.
Its a pittance.
You won't find any successful businessman/woman with that salary.
The way to view it is think about what your earning and then think about what the owner of the company your working for is on.
You won't find anyone in control of a company with tens of thousands of staff on a salary less than a few hundred K ! but you expect an MP to do his/her best for you in your town or city.
I realise many would love this salary and understand that to many it is a lot of money but it isn't given the circumstances.
There is also an issue that if MPs pay is increased massively it becomes a more attractive path for "career politicians" -something that is generally seen as a problem - and means they are less representative of the population where the average salary is already only about half of what they are on now.
Agree with the point above about coalition deals making us like Italy eventually. We can only hope the Miliband survives and ruins any reamining credibility/electability for Labour, the Lib Dems get wiped out as many predict and people think long and hard before voting UKIP in a general election. Then the resulting Tory majority can avoid doing any shabby coalition deals and get things done
With Labours inability to management money greater than the intake of a church bazaar the treasury would have dried up. Money for social security and NHS would have disappeared, the population on the lower wage spectrum would really have been hit hard (and they think they have it tough now?). Social unrest would have seen people taking to the streets in protest. With their anger directed at the very people that purport to fight their corner. It would have meant that Labour would become a totally un-electable party in 2014/15.
And the Labour party were evidently unelectable in 2010 so why wait for 5 years to inherit an even worse Country?
I am not sure. You have no chance.