A little bit of data on Paris-Roubaix 2005-2014

xavierdisley

https://twitter.com/xavierdisley/status ... 9904649216

I looked at the size of finishing groups from 2005-2014 as well:

Group 1 (winners group): 1.5±0.4 riders
Group 2: 2.9±1.2
Group 3: 1.5±0.4
Group 4: 4.4±2.2
Group 5: 3.0±2.0

So dribs and drabs as you'd expect. The second group this year had 9 riders in which is almost unheard of, hadn't happened for >10yrs.

frenchfighter

So a selective race in general; got to love this one. Survival of the fittest and little action to coast.

This year the 2nd group was bursting with talent.

Paris-Roubaix 2014 Results
NED 1 TERPSTRA, Niki (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) 6:09:01
GER 2 DEGENKOLB, John (GIANT-SHIMANO) + 20
SUI 3 CANCELLARA, Fabian (TREK FACTORY RACING)
BEL 4 VANMARCKE, Sep (BELKIN)
CZE 5 STYBAR, Zdenek (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP)
SVK 6 SAGAN, Peter (CANNONDALE)
GBR 7 THOMAS, Geraint (SKY)
NED 8 LANGEVELD, Sebastian (GARMIN SHARP)
GBR 9 WIGGINS, Bradley (SKY)
BEL 10 BOONEN, Tom (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP)

I think this stat is interesting but needs to be looked at in conjunction with time differentials. If group 2 was 20 people 3 mins back in one race and in another race group 2-5 were 5 strong and all within 1.5 mins of the winner, which race is more selective?

What conclusions would you draw from what you posted?

xavierdisley

I don't think splitting the group numbers up works well, which is why I didn't stick it in the graph. There were ~10 person groups in 2005, 2011, 2013 and 2014 so it skews the numbers a bit.

As I put on the graph though, I think it highlights the importance of a strong team - whether that means putting a rider (or two) in the break to help out later on or doing some chasing work and still being up there at the finish. In recent years only Cancellara has been able to go it alone.

rick_chasey

mainly depends on the weather, innit.

2014 was headwind.

takethehighroad

I read something in Cycle Sport years ago, that crunched the numbers on the one day classic and both in terms of time differential between 1st to 100th, and number of finishers, P-R is the most selective race