Tour stage win record

iainf72

Just finished listening to the excellent Cycling Podcast and they talked about Cavendish now being stalled on 25 stage wins.

Feels like Merckx record will remain his, as Cavendish is not getting younger, isn't the fastest anymore.

Don't know how long he planned on carrying on for, but how close do we think he'll get?

[And don't get all worked up and sweary, I'm not disrespecting anymore - looking at you TMR]

Pross

iainf72 wrote:

Just finished listening to the excellent Cycling Podcast and they talked about Cavendish now being stalled on 25 stage wins.

Feels like Merckx record will remain his, as Cavendish is not getting younger, isn't the fastest anymore.

Don't know how long he planned on carrying on for, but how close do we think he'll get?

[And don't get all worked up and sweary, I'm not disrespecting anymore - looking at you TMR]

I reckon he'll get maybe 5 more at a push but he's no longer top dog and there are even more youngsters coming through.

TMR

I read an interview with Brian Holm post-crash, in which he stated that there is a recognition that Cav doesn't have long left at the top. He's 30 next year, there are younger, faster sprinters coming through.

That said, Petacchi still beat Cav from time to time when Cav was in his prime, so there's hope for an 'old dog', but it will be more situational.

Much will depend upon how he recovers from this shoulder injury. He may not be able to race again to the same standard - much is unknown. I think he may get up to 5 more stages before he retires. I don't see him beating EM, but I do see him possibly securing 2nd place.

type:epyt

I got the impression this was going to be the Tour that defined Cav going forward. He hasn't been THE fastest for a couple of years now and the much heralded move to OPQS hasn't worked out as expected. It's been 'good' but not up to HTC standards (nowhere close really).

The Irony is that his 2 biggest (and bigger) rivals seem to be slightly better on the lumpy stuff than he is (certainly on recent evidence) so he can no longer count on being the freshest towards the end of GT's.

mulletmaster

I don't think he will get any more. Maybe one or two if he's lucky.

DeVlaeminck

I'm rather more optimistic than most, assuming his shoulder injury isn't a long term problem I think he will get back to being the equal of Kittel possibly even dominating him.

29 isn't old, Robbie McEwen took 3 stages of the Tour at the age of 33 or thereabouts and won his last two years after that, Petacchi took a couple of stages aged 36 - I think Cav has the kind of natural drive to be winning stages until him mid 30s and if he can do that Merckx's record is an outside possibility and Hinault's total pretty much a nailed on certainty. If one of the promising French sprinters can really crack the big league we may even see more pure sprint stages laid on which would help.

The only question mark I'd have is that Cav has often won through his jump rather than top end speed and perhaps that is the kind of thing that fades first with age - that acceleration rather than raw power.

Pross

Notwithstanding Saturday I think he is reaching that stage in his life where you start thinking of the risks more. Also, for all the talk of how Sky didn't suit him OPQS doesn't seem to help him much more.

Then again, we didn't get the chance to see what form he had this season and for all we know he may have taken 3 or 4 stages. After all he was in roughly the right position Saturday despite a flat out testing little climb in the final km.

philbar72

Seems to me that Sky's retraining of him into the lightweight Olympic targeting Cav , meant he lost a bit of top end at the expense of being able to get up box hill 9 times! , and since then whilst still one of the best ever sprinters, he has had to see a giant German come along and take some of his glory. Kittel’s a match for Cavendish in every respect except where Cav could sneak a win because the German cannot get over some of the climbs as quickly. last years Tour was lopsided (like cavs cranks at the time) and it wasn't an absolutley true picture.

Weirdly this year despite illness his form was good-ish (better than the start of last year (pre Giro) . I think he’s Dan Martined the 1st stage (i.e tried far to hard and cocked right up). He’ll be back and hungry knowing how single minded he is. Depends of course on the state of his shoulder post operation. The thing about him is he is purpose built for one role, he wouldn’t be much use as anything other than a sprinter. So its boom or bust time. I think knowing what he’s all about, he will be back in time for the Vuelta. Hopefully he can build form for the worlds.

phreak

Cipo won the World Champs + 6 stages of the Giro at 35 years of age. That said, Kittel does appear to have his number right now.

cal_stewart

That's because Cipollini is a god.