Worst winter ever?

secretsam

So, the Met office ("It'll be a barbeque summer, folks!") predicted the worst winter since the last ice age.

Erm, we're still waiting, guys...

I think that they use the kit from the "Wheel of fortune" to predict the weather. Either that, or stick their heads out of the window and have a guess...

seanoconn

Pure guess work coviently forgotten about when it doesn't come to pass. They can predict a couple days ahead with accuracy and a couple of weeks ahead, more hit than miss. Anything longer I take with a pinch of salt.

Omar Little

Parts of the media might have predicted it but the Met office didnt.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/get-ready-f ... logid=8779

daviesee

If the media predict it often enough then it will be true one day.

Until that day.................

markhewitt1978

They are getting better at predicting severe weather events, such as storms, quite a way out. But sometimes even on the day they can be massively off.

Take last Sunday. For a while the forecast was overcast but no rain all day. The day before the forecast changed to say it would start raining at about 1pm and it would be heavy for the rest of the day.

In fact what happened was that it started raining about 11am but instead of continuing all day it stopped at about 2pm meaning the ride home was dry instead of the 'heavy rain' predicted.

secretsam

I still reckon that they use a pig's bladder on a stick, wave it around and if it changes colour...

upperoilcan

SecretSam wrote:

So, the Met office ("It'll be a barbeque summer, folks!") predicted the worst winter since the last ice age.

Erm, we're still waiting, guys...

I thought the winter went on to around March ?

Still plenty of time left for some really shitty weather.

markhewitt1978

24th March 2013

DavidBelcher

Omar Little wrote:

Parts of the media might have predicted it but the Met office didnt.

"Parts of the media"....namely tabloid drivel (Star/Express) owned by Britain's top light entertainer and pornographer, Richard Desmond.

David

Bozman

Apparently 2014/15 is going to be the big one, it's got something to do with sunspot activity or lack of and the surface temperature of that oceans, if everything stays on course it's going to be a monster.

hangeron

Met Office certainly did not predict the worst winter ever or anything like it. Here's the blog that the Met Office write.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013 ... uk-winter/

There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the Met Office is warning of exceptionally cold weather for three months.

However, the Met Office hasn’t issued a warning along these lines and we have not highlighted months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather ahead.

secretsam

LOL all these Met Office apologists coming out of the woodwork!!!!

FWIW, I accept that predicting UK weather must be a 'mare. And if it's any consolation, friends in France say their Met Office equivalent are held in equally high regard

PS: I don't read any daily newspaper, certainly not anything published by Dirty Desmond

slowmart

Amazingly the weather makes an appearance in the media when there is very little of substance to report elsewhere.

verylonglegs

The barbeque summer was the last long term public forecast they announced?. They still make them but no longer release them to the public and since then they forecasted the wettest year on record would be drier than average. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21967190

Long term forecasting is a work in progress lets say, although some could put it more harshly if they wish

rolf_f

SecretSam wrote:

LOL all these Met Office apologists coming out of the woodwork!!!!

FWIW, I accept that predicting UK weather must be a 'mare. And if it's any consolation, friends in France say their Met Office equivalent are held in equally high regard

PS: I don't read any daily newspaper, certainly not anything published by Dirty Desmond

So where is your evidence that the Met Office predicted a terrible winter? Most of the time, when you hear this sort of thing, it is very unintelligent journalists mis-understanding very straightforward information and then putting a 'newsworthy spin' on it.

The Met Office do a very good job - I find it pretty rare for the three day forecasts to let me down (the most frequent failure tends to be 'chances of showers on the Pennines' which can often translate to torrential sleety rain but that is pretty rare and I know how to interpret that one now!).

Mindless whining isn't very helpful and anyone who is dumb enough to think that any long range forecast is going to be any better than a 'most likely scenario'* deserves to spend the winter getting hailed on

* most likely being quite possibly a 20% probability - ie not very likely at all!

Incidentally, a lot of papers don't use the Met Office at all - probably because the Met Office has got tired of the incompetent reporting of the info. Instead, they use crap little forecasting companies that either buy in Met Office data or use sticks to forecast with. These idiot companies are happy to forecast anything the journalist wishes as they know that if anyone remembers the forecast and it was wrong, the Met Office will get blamed.

secretsam

Rolf F wrote:

Mindless whining

Oi! That's a bit strong, I may have been misguided but I'm not 'mindless' :evil:

daviesee

Shorts & S/S jersey this morning at 06:30.

Can't wait for the mild winters! :P

pinno

SecretSam wrote:

I still reckon that they use a pig's bladder on a stick, wave it around and if it changes colour...

Is that how you do it? I rub beetroot on a chicken and then see which direction it runs.

arran77

pinarello001 wrote:

SecretSam wrote:

I still reckon that they use a pig's bladder on a stick, wave it around and if it changes colour...

Is that how you do it? I rub beetroot on a chicken and then see which direction it runs.

No, that's the pregnancy testing method.....well are you :P

ugo.santalucia

I read on an Italian site that the north of Europe will have a a milder than normal winter, so it's anyone's guess

thegreatdivide

It's mild and still in Dundee - perfect ride weather - and I'm stuck in work :-(

dee4life2005

Same here. You seen the forecast for tomorrow and the weekend though :-( windy as fook and rain.

dee4life2005

Wish I'd cycled to work today now.

daviesee

dee4life2005 wrote:

Wish I'd cycled to work today now.

Begs the question, why didn't you?

dee4life2005

It's all the alarm clocks fault, with it's damn snooze button! :-)
... and knowing that I'd need a full rucksack with change of clothes for work.

I`ll cut myself some slack though, it's a 21 mile each way commute ... did a longer route yesterday (50 miles total, with a couple of KOMs), and have done just under 10000 miles this year :-)

daviesee

dee4life2005 wrote:

Same here. You seen the forecast for tomorrow and the weekend though :-( windy as fook and rain.

Sounds distinctly average to me.

pinno

dee4life2005 wrote:

Same here. You seen the forecast for tomorrow and the weekend though :-( windy as fook and rain.

Normal West coast of Scotland weather.

DavidBelcher

thegreatdivide wrote:

It's mild and still in Dundee - perfect ride weather - and I'm stuck in work :-(

Dad lived up there for 4 years, based on his recollections that sounds like a typical Dundee winter (coastal micro-climate and all that)....he said it wasn't unknown for the city itself to be snow-free and relatively mild yet not far out of town the main Perth road would be blocked by huge drifts!

David

markhewitt1978

dee4life2005 wrote:

and have done just under 10000 miles this year :-)

Most don't even drive that distance, well done

thegreatdivide

DavidBelcher wrote:

thegreatdivide wrote:

It's mild and still in Dundee - perfect ride weather - and I'm stuck in work :-(

Dad lived up there for 4 years, based on his recollections that sounds like a typical Dundee winter (coastal micro-climate and all that)....he said it wasn't unknown for the city itself to be snow-free and relatively mild yet not far out of town the main Perth road would be blocked by huge drifts!

David

Very much true. It's also the sunniest city in Scotland and in some camps the UK, partly due to it's south facing location on the side of a volcanic plug - it's also bloody hilly!!!! Right now it's mild again but drizzle.

crispybug2