what size, 26", 27.5" or 29er ?

Kowalski675

roverpig wrote:

Also, I don't think Giant said they will kill off their 29ers.

Yes they have. They said they "won't be turning the tap off overnight", but intend to discontinue them completely within a couple of years, and are "fully committed to 650b".

Kowalski675

roverpig wrote:

The 2015 offerings may already be a fair way down the pipeline but beyond that it's going to depend on whether people buy into the new wheel or not. I think the outcome is far from certain.

They won't have any choice, they can't buy what the manufacturers aren't making. The outcome has already been decided by the manufacturers - 26" is dead, whether we like it or not.

benpinnick

roverpig wrote:

benpinnick wrote:

I think maybe you're missing my point - many bike manufacturers have already effectively dropped 26. Im not saying you wont get parts, but you will struggle to find a wide choice of bikes in anything but FR/DH, Quick example in mid to high end bikes:

Giant: 9 models - 1x26", 5x27.5", 3x29"
Trek: 30 models - 6x26", 10x27.5", 14x29"
Whyte: 21 models - 0x26", 9x27.5", 12x29"

By next year it will be skewed even more into 27.5. Even Specialized, the anti 26er flag waver sells very few 26 bikes now.

You could be right, but I think you should be careful about making predictions based on data from a single model year. The 2015 offerings may already be a fair way down the pipeline but beyond that it's going to depend on whether people buy into the new wheel or not. I think the outcome is far from certain. In fact I'd go so far as to say that 26" is still (just) the safest bet. The installed base of 26" bikes is so large that getting forks and wheels/tyres will be easy enough for as long as I'm likely to keep a bike. Although it looks unlikely right now it is still possible that 650b will be a flash in the pan.

Also, I don't think Giant said they will kill off their 29ers. I think they said they'd like to, which is fair enough. There are bound to be economies of scale if they can use the same wheel across their range. But I think they said they'd wait to see how the market reacted to 650b before deciding.

I'm not basing my declaration on this year, thats an example for where its gone from 2013 > 2014. Having spoken to a few manufacturers the demand coming through for 2015 models (bear in mind these will start to be in production in just a few months so planning is well underway) - I'm hearing that 26 is virtually dead and buried in terms of new bike production for all but DH. I don't think there's any going back!

Ulysses

... and then there will be the mighty 26er revival, branded as the dawn of a new era of riding, huge investment in marketing hype = sales.
26er will be around for a good while yet, wheels, tyres and tubes will be available for ages ... perhaps not attached to new bikes, but still available.
Choice of size is down to preferance and use. If it helps, I went with a 29er as I'm tall and I ride XC mostly. I had to double (give or take depending on the bike) my budget to get a good spec 29er over a similar spec 26er ... thats why I ended up with a Canyon, cos for double my money I wanted a better spec too, not just a 29er with the same components as a £400 bike.
The coming 2014 bikes will change that as a 2014 £500 29er will carry a similar spec to a 2013 £500 26er, there abouts, otherwise 29ers would be priced out of the mainstream market still.

roverpig

As I said, those predicting the death of 26" bikes may be right. I don't know and to be honest I'm not too bothered. I won't need to buy another bike for a while and 650b is close enough to 26" for any difference in the way they ride to be insignificant for a numpty like me. But I still don't think it's a done deal just yet. Public opinion is fickle and it's not too hard to imagine scenarios that would shift it back to 26". Of course manufacturers will try to influence the market, that's why they have marketing departments, but they can't control events. All it would take is a few high profile people to say they prefer 26" or a few magazine articles claiming that smaller wheels are more fun and people will start asking for 26" bikes. The big boys may not want to offer them that choice but they'll like losing market share to niche players even less. That's what got them into 29ers in the first place remember?

But it's all just idle speculation really. For now I'll just enjoy riding my 26" bike and my 29er and see what's on offer next time I feel like buying a bike. I'm sure there will be something worth having.

Jomox

26" will be around for a good while yet, would not worry.

rockmonkeysc

Im confident enough that 26" parts will be available for a long time. I have just ordered a new 26" frame.

passout

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Im confident enough that 26" parts will be available for a long time. I have just ordered a new 26" frame.

Yes, I just got a new 26er MTB. In fact both my off road bikes are 26ers and no plans to change that. I don't care if my bikes will be 'niche' in a few years - parts will still be available. 27.5 will take off though I think.

Graydawg

im holding out for the 30.25" Wheel.... which will be released as soon as everyone has moved to 650b or 29"..... and will be claimed to be far superior in every way. Really? they are round, and go round and thats all that matters to me :P

A bit like Apple iPads & iPhones.... As soon as you get everyone on the new one, release a newer, slightly improved iPad / iPhone...

Then watch the sheep jump ship for no reason... (PS - I own an iPhone 5s LOL)

edhornby

there are american niche bike manufacturers that make 36in wheel bikes... fat bikes.... jump bikes with 24in wheels will probably make a miraculous jump (heh) in popularity

there will always be an angle - personally I would rather they stick with 26 and 29 but hey