BMC TdF team leader

greasedscotsman

I'm sure the next few weeks this forum will be full of the whole Froome/Wiggins thing, but who should lead the BMC team at the Tour? Ochowicz says Evans...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/evans-t ... s-ochowicz

Is he right? Seemed to me that Evans never really looked like he could win the Giro and was just hanging on for a podium place. But then Evans 3rd at the Giro must rank higher than van Garderen's win at Tour of California. Or does it not matter as neither of them is capable of winning anyway?

rick_chasey

greasedscotsman wrote:

Or does it not matter as neither of them is capable of winning anyway?

Quite.


But that's not much fun for a forum.

Evans leads, under the guidance that he needs to be man enough to realise if he's not on it, and also be Ok with TJ having a freer role away from him if Evans gets himself in a situation where he is losing time on all the main rivals and TJ isn't.

DeadCalm

I can't see either of them being close to the podium anyway (top 10 maybe but not top 5) so I'd go along with Rick and give it to Evans for old times sake with TJ given an almost free role.

morstar

DeadCalm wrote:

I can't see either of them being close to the podium anyway (top 10 maybe but not top 5) so I'd go along with Rick and give it to Evans for old times sake with TJ given an almost free role.

That's a very harsh assessment. I think there's a very good chance 1 of them will be top 5. Evans form was nowhere 6 weeks ago and he's just podiumed in a gt. I don't see him winning but I struggle to think of him being far behind as long as he's fit.

philbar72

BMC won't make cadel a domestique, and despite only finishing 3rd in The Giro ( a podium in a grand tour), I think his chances of doing the same in the tour are remote at best. TJ seems the better long term prospect but seems a little like the sky second fiddle team mates such as Porte, where they have several good days and then a bad one, which at the tour just means you’ll fall away.

Cadel is about 3 years past his best and despite his win in the 2011 tour, he’ll not be able to get top 5 in this tour. I think TJ as well would struggle. BMC will need to be structured so that their guys that do well in breakaways and solo attacks are well supported (thinking Cummings, Gilbert, Hushovd).

Another view is that all of the team (except Phinney, Blythe, Van Garderen), are perhaps a little bit past it. Thor doesn't look like he's goig to win anything, GIlbert is trying to represent the WC jersey but is getting marked out of races, maybe Phinney could do well in a time trial, but his game is not about the hills/ cols.

Tom Butcher

If I was the DS I'd be looking at maybe using one to go for the mountains jersey - probably TJ as I can't see Evans buying that. It would mean giving up TJ as a second string GC man - he'd need to give the GCers a packet of time to get the freedom to go in breaks - but he'd get a lot of exposure without compromising the main GC contender much.

inkyfingers

No way will they waste Tejay on the polka dot jersey. It's a bit sad, but I don't think that jersey has much appeal to anybody other than the smaller french teams these days.

Despite his battling performance in the Giro I still think Cadel is past his best, but we also mustn't big up Tejay too much, winning California doesn't mean much, and his other results are promising rather than spectacular. I think they'll just let the road decide. This years Tour is really focussed on the final week, but to still be in contention you'll have to make it through the first two weeks without doing anything silly, and there's few better at doing that than Cadel Evans.

RichN95.

Tom Butcher wrote:

If I was the DS I'd be looking at maybe using one to go for the mountains jersey - probably TJ as I can't see Evans buying that. It would mean giving up TJ as a second string GC man - he'd need to give the GCers a packet of time to get the freedom to go in breaks - but he'd get a lot of exposure without compromising the main GC contender much.

It would also show an astonishing lack of belief in a rider who came 5th at the age of 24, thereby ensuring he'll leave the team at the earliest opportunity.

TheBigBean

Easy, two team leaders and see how it goes. It is perfectly feasable - if one rider is dropped the other won't wait.

greasedscotsman

TheBigBean wrote:

Easy, two team leaders and see how it goes. It is perfectly feasable - if one rider is dropped the other won't wait.

Huh, that's no fun!

Turfle

Neither should lose much time before the first time trial comes around, so let the TT course sort it out before Ventoux comes along. I can see Tejay putting a good minute into Cadel in the first TT.

Tom Butcher

RichN95 wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

If I was the DS I'd be looking at maybe using one to go for the mountains jersey - probably TJ as I can't see Evans buying that. It would mean giving up TJ as a second string GC man - he'd need to give the GCers a packet of time to get the freedom to go in breaks - but he'd get a lot of exposure without compromising the main GC contender much.

It would also show an astonishing lack of belief in a rider who came 5th at the age of 24, thereby ensuring he'll leave the team at the earliest opportunity.

Why? Let him lead the Vuelta - either that or go with TJ and break the bad news to Evans. I doubt TJ would leave - a good performance in the Vuelta with the promise of leading the team next year - why throw the toys out when that is on offer. I'm not convinced that Evans is likely to take joint leadership well and splits in the team aren't what you want.

We are talking about a promising rider here but he has one top 5 in a grand tour - he's knocking at the door but he's not been banging on it for a couple of seasons.

inkyfingers

The Vuelta doesn't suit either of them.

Tom Butcher

inkyfingers wrote:

The Vuelta doesn't suit either of them.

Why?

RichN95.

Tom Butcher wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

If I was the DS I'd be looking at maybe using one to go for the mountains jersey - probably TJ as I can't see Evans buying that. It would mean giving up TJ as a second string GC man - he'd need to give the GCers a packet of time to get the freedom to go in breaks - but he'd get a lot of exposure without compromising the main GC contender much.

It would also show an astonishing lack of belief in a rider who came 5th at the age of 24, thereby ensuring he'll leave the team at the earliest opportunity.

Why? Let him lead the Vuelta - either that or go with TJ and break the bad news to Evans. I doubt TJ would leave - a good performance in the Vuelta with the promise of leading the team next year - why throw the toys out when that is on offer. I'm not convinced that Evans is likely to take joint leadership well and splits in the team aren't what you want.

Why would a sportsman stick with a team that doesn't believe in him and won't support him, despite him showing that he has everything it takes. There's plenty of teams who will support van Garderen 100%.

And why should he be expected to prove himself at the Vuelta first when he already proved himself at the Tour last yea?

Richmond Racer

Tom Butcher wrote:

inkyfingers wrote:

The Vuelta doesn't suit either of them.

Why?

Not many TT kms and loads of wall-like summit fnishes. Neither are the best of the best at 'em - and remember the Vuelta loves its bonus secs for first 3 places.

inkyfingers

Tom Butcher wrote:

inkyfingers wrote:

The Vuelta doesn't suit either of them.

Why?

Because it's got more uphill finishes than i've got fingers to count them on, and even the TT has a climb in the middle.

Tom Butcher

Fair enough if it doesn't suit him I haven't checked the parcours - normally it is less extreme than the Giro.

mike6

Agree. Too many cliff face finishes. They always want a Spanish winner. Could be one of the reasons why its become the third choice GT for most teams.

Tom Butcher

RichN95 wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

If I was the DS I'd be looking at maybe using one to go for the mountains jersey - probably TJ as I can't see Evans buying that. It would mean giving up TJ as a second string GC man - he'd need to give the GCers a packet of time to get the freedom to go in breaks - but he'd get a lot of exposure without compromising the main GC contender much.

It would also show an astonishing lack of belief in a rider who came 5th at the age of 24, thereby ensuring he'll leave the team at the earliest opportunity.

Why? Let him lead the Vuelta - either that or go with TJ and break the bad news to Evans. I doubt TJ would leave - a good performance in the Vuelta with the promise of leading the team next year - why throw the toys out when that is on offer. I'm not convinced that Evans is likely to take joint leadership well and splits in the team aren't what you want.

Why would a sportsman stick with a team that doesn't believe in him and won't support him, despite him showing that he has everything it takes. There's plenty of teams who will support van Garderen 100%.

And why should he be expected to prove himself at the Vuelta first when he already proved himself at the Tour last yea?

Sometimes it pays to wait - Chris Froome could have left Sky after his Vuelta in 2011 but he now goes into the Tour as likely leader of the strongest squad.

Evans was signed as a team leader and if you accept he was ill last year he probably still just about deserves to lead BMC over TVG. For BMC it 's about exposure and one for the GC and one for the mountains seems a safer bet from that point of view than a second rider finishing just outside the fight or the win, especially as Evans is clearly not going to be happy if he isn't leader.

RichN95.

Tom Butcher wrote:

For BMC it 's about exposure

No it isn't. They're funded entirely by a billionaire. It's about winning the big prizes. Andy Rihs doesn't give a toss about exposure.

Tom Butcher

Well they can win the KOM jersey then - Evans is still probably their best shot at the GC but he is known to be mentally quite fragile - not backing him as sole leader lessens his chances.

RichN95.

Tom Butcher wrote:

Well they can win the KOM jersey then - Evans is still probably their best shot at the GC but he is known to be mentally quite fragile - not backing him as sole leader lessens his chances.

Evans is fine mentally. In fact, not making sole leader is more likely to spur him on. For example, when he won the World Championships, Simon Gerrans was the team leader for Australia

Richmond Racer

RichN95 wrote:

Tom Butcher wrote:

Well they can win the KOM jersey then - Evans is still probably their best shot at the GC but he is known to be mentally quite fragile - not backing him as sole leader lessens his chances.

Evans is fine mentally. In fact, not making sole leader is more likely to spur him on. For example, when he won the World Championships, Simon Gerrans was the team leader for Australia

He might beat the chest in the manner of an old silverback faced with a young pretender, but since he won the Worlds my sense is that Evans has become a hell of a lot stronger mentally anyway

LeicesterLad

You are all missing the real question: Who's going to lead Movistar? Prudhomme has chosen his corner...

Tom Butcher

I don't have it to hand but I remember an interview with a coach, probably Sassi, who said Evans was a phenomenal natural athlete but who wasn't as mentally tough as he was physically. I think that tallies with what we've seen from him, the way he reacts to setbacks. His tantrums are not the sign of a rider in control of his emotions.

Even at the Giro he couldn't really accept the fact Uran had beaten him fair and square constantly mentioning the mechanical. He's a rider who needs to be loved and goes best when he feels things are going his way - so yes winning the worlds gave him a boost - he rides best without doubts - an arm round the shoulder not a kick up the arse.

He's not an Armstrong who thrives on proving people wrong - not someone who needs that fear of failure.

morstar

If you read or watch any preview before the TdF there'll be a section on about 10 favourites for the race. Some of them will inevitably be real outside chances like your Tommy V.
I am seriously struggling to understand how somebody as resilient as Evans is just being dismissed as lucky to get top 5. As for his mental strength, if he was fragile, after last year at his age he would have walked away and yet he defied the odds and came back far stronger than expectd in the Giro.
No, I'm not a fanboy and I don't think he'll win but, I'm genuinely surprised at such low expectations. As for all this tosh about going for polka dot, you're applying the risk averse logic of us mere mortals. Elite athletes are motivated by success and the ultimate prize. The polka dot is an irrelevance to serious GT contenders.
I'd quite like somebody to name the 5 shoe ins who are guaranteed to keep Evans out of the top 5. I can think of 4 I'd rate ahead of him and two of them are on the same team which could well see the chances of one being compromised. (No prizes for guessing who they are).

Richmond Racer

morstar wrote:

If you read or watch any preview before the TdF there'll be a section on about 10 favourites for the race. Some of them will inevitably be real outside chances like your Tommy V.
I am seriously struggling to understand how somebody as resilient as Evans is just being dismissed as lucky to get top 5. As for his mental strength, if he was fragile, after last year at his age he would have walked away and yet he defied the odds and came back far stronger than expectd in the Giro.
No, I'm not a fanboy and I don't think he'll win but, I'm genuinely surprised at such low expectations. As for all this tosh about going for polka dot, you're applying the risk averse logic of us mere mortals. Elite athletes are motivated by success and the ultimate prize. The polka dot is an irrelevance to serious GT contenders.
I'd quite like somebody to name the 5 shoe ins who are guaranteed to keep Evans out of the top 5. I can think of 4 I'd rate ahead of him and two of them are on the same team which could well see the chances of one being compromised. (No prizes for guessing who they are).

No one can be guaranteed anything in cycling - too much can happen to derail a GC contenders chances. But that was a really tough Giro from a weather perspective and I'd guess particularly draining on the riders, especially those like Evans who had to be up front day in, day out. Thats one of the reasons I dont think he'll be competitive at the Tour.

I'd put the following as strong possibles to finish ahead (barring illness or DNFs on their part):

Froome
Contador
Valverde
Wiggins or Porte, depending on how things shake out in the Sky camp
Rodriguez
Van Garderen
Quintana
Hesjedal

morstar

Biggest surprise in your list there is Porte. I would have thought the only Sky shake up would be Froome / Wiggins. Assuming Wiggins is not leader, do you still envisage Sky trying to get a 2nd rider in contention other than Wiggins just hanging in a high position without necessarily being leader.
I still reckons has the necessary to finish higher than most on your list.

RichN95.

As a rule of thumb for sports teams, it's better in the long term to back the 24 year old who came 5th last year over the 36 year old who came 7th

morstar

RichN95 wrote:

As a rule of thumb for sports teams, it's better in the long term to back the 24 year old who came 5th last year over the 36 year old who came 7th

I'm inclined to agree. Just surprised there is a school of thought that says whichever is chosen will most likely achieve a top 10 at best.
Is it all just a throwback to the bizarre opinion that the 2012 edition was so easy and the bikes just rode themselves?