Quadruple Dip Recession

RideOnTime

Reading the news and economic comment it looks as though we might be in for a quadruple dip recession. We can't have five dips because no-one knows the proper name for that.

So after dip four it's all growth guaranteed.

smidsy

Quintuplet dip recession?

Frank the tank

Our ecconomy will soon have more dips than the average house party buffet.

CambsNewbie

Officially we haven't had a triple dip yet!

Although apparently the next lot of figures will confirm it....

AchillesLeftKnee

RideOnTime wrote:

So after dip four it's all growth guaranteed.

Or permanent contraction, which would also avoid economic correspondents from having to come up with a name for the macro-economic equivalent of the rather suspicious home made taramasalata that no-one's dare to touch yet.

Makes it all the more saddening to be stuck between politicians offering a choice of "small cuts, look stern, and cross fingers", "slightly smaller cuts, smile, and cross fingers" and "can't we just change the electoral system so we always hold the balance of power".

tiredofwhiners

There is no recession. Spending is still going up and debt is not being paid off.

Being told that you can only have four things you have not paid for, when you previously had five, isn't cutting back.

The Uk has no idea what a real recession is like as we have a generation who have grown up under Labour and have never actually had to spend less than they earn.

ShutUpLegs

Hopefully this will mean boy racers will stop having their car engines chipped

EKIMIKE

tiredofwhiners wrote:

The Uk has no idea what a real recession is like as we have a generation who have grown up in an economic paradigm where they have never actually had to spend less than they earn.

Fixed that for you.

It has nothing to do with party politics as you suggest. It's predictable that this thread will nose-dive into the same nonsensical partisanship that is the scourge of modern day politics, economics and to a lesser extent law.

BTW I LOL'ed at the part dip line from Frank The Tank but then quickly remembered that I face high odds of joining the large contingent of unemployed graduates in this country come July.

tiredofwhiners

EKIMIKE wrote:

tiredofwhiners wrote:

The Uk has no idea what a real recession is like as we have a generation who have grown up in an economic paradigm where they have never actually had to spend less than they earn.

Fixed that for you.

No, you just introduced a typical (overused word) Guardianista attempt to blame economics for people not understanding that earning 2 and spending 3 does not leave you with money for the future. People have always had to
spend less than they earn.

You don't have to be an economist with a degree to understand that you have to pay back debt, and that if you are taking from the state, then someone else is paying your share and eventually they will stop doing so.

But you are right, its not about politics. It would have bene fascinating to have sat in Millipedes meetings, to see how they really reacted when they realised how much debt Broon had accumulated and that not one of their 'socialist' policies could be implemented without massive increases in debt and collapsing what was actually working in the economy. I love economics - the real kind that bumps up against empty wallets and politicians promising jam tomorrow.

Politics, you couldn't make it up, even with drugs

ballysmate

Perhaps someone could sell off some of their investments and help the national debt. Some wine maybe...?

VTech

Ballysmate wrote:

Perhaps someone could sell off some of their investments and help the national debt. Some wine maybe...?

Ohh come on, you cant be serious
There are a lot of people paying into the pot, you cant upset them too much or they leave for better resorts.
80% in the past did little but increase debt as you have to be careful how much to kick and how much to kiss.

EKIMIKE

tiredofwhiners wrote:

No, you just introduced a typical (overused word) Guardianista attempt to blame economics for people not understanding that earning 2 and spending 3 does not leave you with money for the future.

Nice 'partisanist' attempt at type-casting me as a newspaper reader let alone the Guardian. (I know this makes me sound like a d ick but i'm very cautious, yet open minded, about where I get my news and what I then choose to 'believe').

And what overused word? Paradigm? If so then i'm struggling to see why you find it so emotive... it's a neutral word with many synonyms in this context. How about 'era', 'doctrine', 'model', 'school of thought', 'concept'? Are they also overused Guardianista words? :roll:

AchillesLeftKnee

tiredofwhiners wrote:

No, you just introduced a typical (overused word) Guardianista attempt to blame economics for people not understanding that earning 2 and spending 3 does not leave you with money for the future. People have always had to spend less than they earn.

You don't have to be an economist with a degree to understand that you have to pay back debt, and that if you are taking from the state, then someone else is paying your share and eventually they will stop doing so.

But you are right, its not about politics. It would have bene fascinating to have sat in Millipedes meetings, to see how they really reacted when they realised how much debt Broon had accumulated and that not one of their 'socialist' policies could be implemented without massive increases in debt and collapsing what was actually working in the economy. I love economics - the real kind that bumps up against empty wallets and politicians promising jam tomorrow.

Politics, you couldn't make it up, even with drugs

Just so I don't get the wrong end of the stick, are you talking strictly about government debt here?

slowmart

RideOnTime wrote:

We can't have five dips because no-one knows the proper name for it.

I think the phrase your looking for is " proper f***ed"

arthur_scrimshaw

CambsNewbie wrote:

Officially we haven't had a triple dip yet!

Although apparently the next lot of figures will confirm it....

don't worry, Georgie has it all in hand......

the playing mantis

paradigm? as the simpsons so eloquently put it in relation to this word and some others: "Aren't these just buzzwords that dumb people use to sound important?" ??!!!

i have a degree in economics (minor) and for my sins and involved in the banking sector (not an investment bank per se, but the investment/trading arm of a differnt sort of bank and not front office either yet, not that this gives me any greater gravitas to comment on this subject) and tired of whiners is spot on, its really quite simple. spending is up, the recession is a correction of the unsustainable and anomalous financial situation of the past decade(s), and just a return to what the norm should have been. markets have been rallying unprecendenly

people crap on about gov cutbacks, but there havent been any. people are using this as an excuse that they cant have what they want anymore regardless and a bit of reality and common sense has to be applied to their finacial situations.

to the man on the street what does triple dip recession mean? nothing its just spouted in the media and repeated ad nauseum, and likewise it has an undue impact on the markets, that excepted the rally of the last weeks is independent of our situation and is globally driven, by a lot of things, but not least by (probably)investors finally growing tired with the lack of return on fixed income and cash vehicles and the thus inevitably and eventual shift back to equities to a greater or lesser extent.

we have all suffered pay freezes, risk of unemployment, etc, its just how economies work. people dont understand that there is no such thing as unlimited growth. the mistakes and bubble of th past will always correct themselves, and now people need to realise whats happenig now, is likely to be the norm going forward.

tiredofwhiners

EKIMIKE wrote:

And what overused word? Paradigm? If so then i'm struggling to see why you find it so emotive... it's a neutral word with many synonyms in this context. How about 'era', 'doctrine', 'model', 'school of thought', 'concept'? Are they also overused Guardianista words? :roll:

If the words can be used in a game of Bullsh*t Bingo when listening to a politician, then its overused.

If its not the sort of word used in a pub, then you're not talking to people, but are trying to sound better than you are, by using unnecessarily complex words.

Era is fine when a historian uses it, doctrine when an Army person talks about policy, model can be okay if talking about Airfix, school of though - not really, concept by a designer. Most uses are overused as they replace simple, informative words which have served well for decades - all because people try to be trendy.

I'm too old to be trendy and do enjoy asking people 'can I have that in English please?' much to their annoyance.

EKIMIKE

So what word would you use?

...or would you describe a ~30/40 year period as 'the Labour years' even though that government was in power for 13 years?

@the playing mantis - Also lets not forget that I never questioned what was said about debt e.t.c. I simply questioned the absurd assertion made by tiredofwhiners that this entire economic situation is down to one political party. So less of the "dumb" insinuations, you might want to dust up on your reading comprehension?

I'd love to know what people know and think about this situation without implicitly being called dumb, a socialist or Guardianista - which goes to prove my original point that these threads always descend into mindless partisanship.

VTech

You will probably find that it will become a worldwide downward spiral for the rest of most of our lives at least.
I believe that the problem is so widespread and huge that even politicians with good intentions soon realise that there is little that can be done and chose to line their pockets before the ship sinks.
If you look at world debt clocks you will see that there is no way of paying the debt off, we just dont tax enough and if we did raise taxes people would simply move.

the playing mantis

ekimike, steady on, i wasnt critcising u, i was merely making a joke at the paradigm usage. i hear so many buzzwords, and its corp gobbledegook, that i always ake such comments, no need to go all 'vtech' on me!!!!!

im not being partisan, calling u dumb, or anything im merely agreeing wiv whiners assertation about the public needing to get real.

im to the right, but the cons under major and now are just as much at fault as blair/brown. off course browns franly treacherous selling off of gold didnt help...!

all politicians bar the hilarious farage... are crunts.there all pretty much the same on this issue.

vtech, i think u are over simplyfying it a bit. it wont go down further imo we just need to adjust to this being the norm and realise that fast/'big growth is unrealistic and wont happen again, the economic situation corrected itself back to an even keel.

likewise the debt question. a lot of its notional. ultimately we could reach a stage where whole swathes of countries pursue strategic sovereign defaults. i dont think its beyond the realms of possibility for the southern eurozone to end up doing this, although that would lead to its breakup as its the only way they could allow it.

daviesee

tiredofwhiners wrote:

......The Uk has no idea what a real recession is like......

I was living in Canada during their recession in the early '90s and I have to say that the above is depressingly true. Although I would say that it only applies to anyone that can't remember the '70s.
This has been serious for some but for the majority it has simply just been a bit of cutting back a little, not full blown recession. Just look at the level of equipment that people on here are buying. Simply wouldn't happen in a real recession.

RideOnTime

As a new approach to economic policy the Bank of England should handover their management of their interest rates to Santander.

Their great...

If Rory McWhatsit trips over a mole on the 17th they put up their interest rate. Great that's real random. Perhaps everytime the BoE has boiled eggs they should raise the base rate by 2% - oh now we've got bacon lets lower the base rate by 4%. Deal with that markets. What we having tomorrow oh Weetabix right the rates on hold.

RideOnTime

smidsy wrote:

Quintuplet dip recession?

apparently a quintuplet dip - is called a Spice Girl - no idea why.

RideOnTime

A lot of Keynesian out there.

Milton Keynes isn't called Milton for nothing.

Just a warning there!

AchillesLeftKnee

the playing mantis wrote:

the mistakes and bubble of th past will always correct themselves, and now people need to realise whats happenig now, is likely to be the norm going forward.

Not sure I'd agree with the current situation being especially sustainable, principally because the bubble (which, let's be honest, is in household debt as far as the UK's concerned) is still sustained by the relatively benign inflation environment, consequent mega-loose monetary policy, and a cross-party "don't spook the horses" approach to discussing it. Personally, I think the main danger now comes from the consequences of a future significant pickup in the US, at which point monetary policy will be stuck between dealing with persistent and damaging imported inflation, and applying the coup de grace to quite of lot of households that overdid it bigtime in the 00s.

Peddle Up!

No dips, just flat line. The more I think about it, the more I like this solution.

AchillesLeftKnee

Peddle Up! wrote:

The more I think about it, the more I like this solution.

The side effects would be a tad unpalatable to say the least

lostboysaint

Peddle Up! wrote:

No dips, just flat line.

That's actually the correct answer. The economic statistics are not accurate below +/- 2% so as far as any sensible economist is concerned we've never actually got out of recession, we've just bumped along at the same level. The whole "double-dip", "triple-dip" etc. is made up media speak to drive us all into a depressive frenzy, and it appears to work on most of the population. The simple answer to the whole economic situation is that this is the new norm - get used to it.

the playing mantis

@lostboy, oi stop copying what i said!!

@achilles, possibly, although could the US not drag us along with it? i dont think any government, especially the nailed on next labour one (ed milliband as PM, wtf is the world coming to that someone so... 'drippy'... can be PM!!), will get to grips or deal with household debt issues, it would be political suicide for any party.

BelgianBeerGeek

AchillesLeftKnee wrote:

the playing mantis wrote:

the mistakes and bubble of th past will always correct themselves, and now people need to realise whats happenig now, is likely to be the norm going forward.

Not sure I'd agree with the current situation being especially sustainable, principally because the bubble (which, let's be honest, is in household debt as far as the UK's concerned) is still sustained by the relatively benign inflation environment, consequent mega-loose monetary policy, and a cross-party "don't spook the horses" approach to discussing it. Personally, I think the main danger now comes from the consequences of a future significant pickup in the US, at which point monetary policy will be stuck between dealing with persistent and damaging imported inflation, and applying the coup de grace to quite of lot of households that overdid it bigtime in the 00s.

Yes, I was wondering about PMs statement that this is the new norm. Can we be sure? If the economy picks up wouldn't politicians ride that wave? I'm sure they would love to be in a position to tell us all we've never had it so good, have us all in employment etc and take the credit. So a boom would be good for them, right?
Genuine question, not trying to provoke an argument.

the playing mantis

of course they would ride that wave, but imo, and im no david buick, 'booms' to the extent of the one last expereinced are built on shaky ground. any future 'boom' will be in the perspective of where we are now i think, much smaller, and thus any downturns will be equally small. flatline or very small growth is what should be the norm. brown (or was it blair) stating no more boom and bust was ridiculous, considering they helped fuel the unsustainable 'boom'. ultimately joe bloggs needs to realise he cant have everything, and that all this talk of triple dip, boom/bust etc is meaningless to him, once he comes to terms with the fact he has to earn/pay for what he wants, then this whole subject will become meaningless, as its just used by the media and politicians as a stick to beat each other with.