Tour De France Outrights

Gabbo
Gabbo Posts: 864
edited February 2013 in Pro race
With Betfred:


11/10 - Alberto Contador

5/2 - Chris Froome

12/1 - Andy Schleck

12/1 - Bradley Wiggins

12/1 - Joaquin Rodriguez

20/1 - Cadel Evans

25/1 - Alejandro Valverde


I know it's a little early on in the season, but Chris Froome at 5/2 is really good odds in my opinion. But, would you tend to agree that these are the favourites in this very order? If not, why?

Comments

  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Looks about right, though I'd swap Evans and J Rod around and make Evans 12/1 like Wiggins.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    I would put Wiggins out to 20/1 and Evans and 12/1. Wiggins is in a supporting role this year... no.
  • bigmat
    bigmat Posts: 5,134
    I think there will be some other names up there this year who presumably have quite long odds? Not sure who is doing the Giro, but Garmin should have a contender - maybe Hesjedal or potentially Talanskey. Tejay might figure depending on how him and Evans are going. VdB / Gesink (OK, they always flatter to deceive at the highest level but Blanco have looked great so far so Gesink might be an outsider on a hillier parcours?)
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  • bdu98252
    bdu98252 Posts: 171
    I might place a bet on Brad at those odds. It would only take a few crashes and he could be right there.
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    Paddy Power has got Nibali at 25/1 and T Van Garderen at 33/1.
    Contador is Evens.
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    Peter Sagan at 250/1. :roll: :shock: :D
    Hesjedal at 40/1.
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    bdu98252 wrote:
    I might place a bet on Brad at those odds. It would only take a few crashes and he could be right there.

    You can get Wiggins at 16/1. I think it should be 20/1 all told. Froome also on an 11/4 which is a bit more like it. :D:D
  • fidbod
    fidbod Posts: 317
    Quite like Cadel at 20s.

    If betfair have Nibs at above 30s then I might have a cheeky punt and try and close my position when it gets closer to fair value.
  • danlikesbikes
    danlikesbikes Posts: 3,898
    Think those are quote good odds for Cadel if your putting a bet on now, think they will only shorten as the season progresses.
    Pain hurts much less if its topped off with beating your mates to top of a climb.
  • Tom Butcher
    Tom Butcher Posts: 3,830
    Of those I reckon it looks about right - two real contenders, Wiggins an unknown given he may be coming into it as a helper, Schleck's odds reflecting doubts he can return to his best.

    I don't know who else is riding but I'd have thought the likes of Hejesdal or Tejay VG would have more chance than some on that list if they target it and are team leaders.
    it's a hard life if you don't weaken.
  • Richmond Racer
    Richmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    Tom Butcher wrote:
    Of those I reckon it looks about right - two real contenders, Wiggins an unknown given he may be coming into it as a helper, Schleck's odds reflecting doubts he can return to his best.

    I don't know who else is riding but I'd have thought the likes of Hejesdal or Tejay VG would have more chance than some on that list if they target it and are team leaders.


    Cuddles is making it VERY plain as often as possible that he's team leader, not Tejay (I see trouble ahead on that front)
  • dortmunder
    dortmunder Posts: 101
    BWIN are going 4/1 Wiggins!!! Froome 5/2 Contador is 11/10f
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Looks like pretty good odds on Evans to me. When you say outright does that mean you can't bet on them to make the podium? Or can you bet on them each way?

    The others look about right apart from Wiggins who should probably be a tad longer than that.

    If this exact race was run five times in a row would Froome win it more than two times? Probably not.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Milton50 wrote:
    Looks like pretty good odds on Evans to me. When you say outright does that mean you can't bet on them to make the podium? Or can you bet on them each way?

    The others look about right apart from Wiggins who should probably be a tad longer than that.

    If this exact race was run five times in a row would Froome win it more than two times? Probably not.
    But he's 5/2, so that's two times out of seven, not five.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • overlord2
    overlord2 Posts: 339
    Stiffneck at 12/1? Yep that's funny. :lol:
  • mroli
    mroli Posts: 3,622
    Valverde at 25:1 is the best value on there imho...
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  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    RichN95 wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    Looks like pretty good odds on Evans to me. When you say outright does that mean you can't bet on them to make the podium? Or can you bet on them each way?

    The others look about right apart from Wiggins who should probably be a tad longer than that.

    If this exact race was run five times in a row would Froome win it more than two times? Probably not.
    But he's 5/2, so that's two times out of seven, not five.

    Well, what I meant was that if you want to win 'new' money, i.e. excluding money that was yours before the bet then he would need to win more than two times out of every five. Anyway, I'm sure you're technically right.
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    mroli wrote:
    Valverde at 25:1 is the best value on there imho...

    It depends if he's going to ride it like he did last year and target the Vuelta.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Milton50 wrote:
    mroli wrote:
    Valverde at 25:1 is the best value on there imho...

    It depends if he's going to ride it like he did last year and target the Vuelta.

    Apparently he's really focussed on the Tour this year.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    dortmunder wrote:
    BWIN are going 4/1 Wiggins!!! Froome 5/2 Contador is 11/10f

    4/1 when he's on 12/1 on most. I've seen 16/1 somewhere. :D

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