2013 TdF ~ Decisive stages

greasedscotsman

Simple question really, which stage is going to be the stage of this year's race. Will it be Ventoux, Alpe d'Huez, maybe one of the TTs. Maybe none of them, will it be a gradual wearing down until we have a winner. If you were going to book one day off to watch a stage on the TV, which one would it be?

philbar72

the alp d'huez for me, isn't it up and back twice? that would destroy most! Ventoux is something i'm planning on this year. it looks pretty savage.

Richmond Racer

For me, Ventoux and the Alpe

frenchfighter

What ever stage Schleck and Contador decide to rip the Sky train apart. Could be a rolling stage. Contador will attack at any opportunity.

rick_chasey

Too tricky to decide since so much rides on how it's played out.




But it's fun so I'll plump for the Alp.

greasedscotsman

frenchfighter wrote:

What ever stage Schleck and Contador decide to rip the Sky train apart. Could be a rolling stage. Contador will attack at any opportunity.

Well have a guess which one. As Rick says...

Rick Chasey wrote:

...it's fun...

I think it will be the Ventoux stage, but have sneaky feeling the Annecy stage might be quite important. It's very short, 125km. Could see some attacks going all over the place.

lostboysaint

frenchfighter wrote:

What ever stage Schleck and Contador decide to rip the Sky train apart. Could be a rolling stage. Contador will attack whenever a rival loses a chain.

Richmond Racer

lostboysaint wrote:

frenchfighter wrote:

What ever stage Schleck and Contador decide to rip the Sky train apart. Could be a rolling stage. Contador will attack whenever a rival loses a chain.

Funny

frenchfighter

Ventoux and Alpe should create differences - the 2nd much more than the first although I don't think the last climb is that steep at all. Also Ventoux will be very hard to get time if there is a strong wind. I also fear a strong team will just shut this off, especially with no challenges before hand.

Annecy I am biased as my grandad lives close by and hope to go to that stage.

Ax3 is a bloody hard climb as is the one before so I am going for gaps.

See here for neatly laid out climb profiles for Tour 2013
http://www.climbbybike.com/race.asp?Race=Tour2013

FJS

As always the most likely decisive stage is often the first mountain stage, like it was this year. The summit finish at Ax-3-domaines with the Pailheres is selective enough and there are plenty of scenarios that could make the race from then on a defensive procession.

Alpe d'Huez twice, Mt Ventoux and the short nervous Semnoz stage should still be spectacular. Wouldn't want to miss either of those (not sure about taking the day off to watch 220-odd flat kilometers to Mt Ventoux before the actual climb though...)

greasedscotsman

frenchfighter wrote:

Ax3 is a bloody hard climb as is the one before so I am going for gaps.

I'll see you there then!

greasedscotsman

FJS wrote:

not sure about taking the day off to watch 220-odd flat kilometers to Mt Ventoux before the actual climb though...

Lightweight!

blazing_saddles

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thomthom

Alpe stage will be like any other stage with Alpe as the MTF. That obviously means it will be a good stage but they could have placed any other HC mountain in before with the same result - cycling wise. Might even be a hindrance for good racing as the respect for Alpe is as huge as it is among the riders.

I go for, and hope for, neither of Ventoux or Alpe will be decisive.

inkyfingers

I very much doubt anybody will win the Tour on the Ventoux, unless it's an unusually still day then the wind makes a solo attack unlikely.

I think that the Alpe will be the big stage, the corners will make it harder for somebody like Sky to control the pace. Though hopefully some riders will have the balls to attack on some of the less obvious GC stages.

greasedscotsman

inkyfingers wrote:

I think that the Alpe will be the big stage, the corners will make it harder for somebody like Sky to control the pace.

Do you think? Why's that? I think the bigger problem could be the crowds closing down the amount of avaliable road and riders not being able to attack. A bit like what happened to Fabio Parra in '88.

frenchfighter

It is easier to chase a target and it is easier to use your 'train' when the roads are wider and less busy like on the Ventoux.

jonginge

The road up the Alpe isn't that narrow though. The corners are pretty shallow too. It's only certain corners that are a problem (dutch corner esp.)

I remember the Fabio Parre stage in '88. The camera motorbikes couldn't get through the crowds fast enough to give the riders room to attack. They barriered the final few km after that.

inkyfingers

Even though the Alpe is not super steep, the corners (and the variation in incline) make it harder to ride it at a steady pace, The crowds could well cause a problem, but I still think that a top climber like Contador or Schleck is more likely to attack on the Alpe than on the Ventoux.

greasedscotsman

OK, that's a good point. I can remember Roche (or was it Millar) saying that he hated Alpe d'Huez due to the changes in gradient.

Think Ventoux will come down to how windy it is on the day. Could be decisive either way, if it's windy or not.

ddraver

Is it time for my regular post about twice up the alpe being a pretty easy Alpine stage by most Alpine Stage standards...

greasedscotsman

Your a bit late actually, we are onto the 2nd page now.

rick_chasey

ddraver wrote:

Is it time for my regular post about twice up the alpe being a pretty easy Alpine stage by most Alpine Stage standards...

It'll still be very selective. It always is - and for what I can remember the run in isn't always the super-tough Galibier run in.

Ventoux has the headwind problem....

greasedscotsman

Rick Chasey wrote:

It'll still be very selective. It always is - and for what I can remember the run in isn't always the super-tough Galibier run in.

What's so tough about the road from the top of the Galibier to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez?

What I think might make a difference is that it's 48km from the top of the Galibier to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez whereas it's 26.5km from the top of the Sarenne to the bottom of the Alpe. Alot less time to recover. Mind you, I don't know what the descent of the Sarenne is like, supposed to be quite technical (?), whereas the Galibier/Lautaret isn't.

rick_chasey

True, true.

Galibier is a bigger effort though.

greasedscotsman

Rick Chasey wrote:

True, true.

Galibier is a bigger effort though.

Do you think? On a holiday I did a while back one of the tour guides was an ex pro, he reckoned Galibier was easy, just very long. Not sure how the Croix de Fer/Glandon compares. I rode the Col d'Ornon a while back, which is the climb they come over to get to Bourg d'Osions, don't think that will make too much of a difference.

Don't really think Ddraver is right. It's in the final week, everyone will be pretty tired and it's hard enough to make some time gaps if riders are prepared to got for it.

rick_chasey

It's definitely a key key stage. But then the Alpe always is.


Mid stage the Galibier has to be tougher than the Alp - surely?

I just hope the occasion and crowds go to someone important's head and they go for it far too early and rip the whole race up.

gingermagician

Stage 8, for a potential Team Sky show of strength.

Stage 11, for a superior demonstration of TT'ing on the part of Wiggins and Froome. I expect both of them, but especially Wiggins, to put significant time into Contador - as well as a serious chunk into Schleck.

It'll be early days, but I think they'll lay down a marker...

ddraver

Its a short stage, which may encourage attacks, or it may make it easy for a team with 5 mins in GC to shut it down. The Alpe is "always" decisive because its the last climb of a usually epic day - the point is that twice up the alpe is NOT an epic day.

I'm sure someone will romp off and win by 3 mins, but it won't be a GC guy it will be a nobody from someone like Euskadi...

greasedscotsman

Rick Chasey wrote:

Mid stage the Galibier has to be tougher than the Alp - surely?

I don't really see why, they are both HC climbs. And as I said before, less distance from the top of the Sarenne which is a technical descent. If someone attacks on the first ascent there is good reason to believe they might stay away.

ddraver

THe alpe is only HC because it always is at the end of a mofo stage, and because the French love romanticism as much as the next guy. I think it's Cat 1 or 2 the rest of the time.