Worlds Mens RR Odds?

josame
josame Posts: 1,162
edited September 2012 in Pro race
Pretty please (work are not bet'fair') :)
'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'

Comments

  • Cleat Eastwood
    Cleat Eastwood Posts: 7,508
    heres some as of 11 oclock




    Gilbert, Philippe 4.00
    Sagan, Peter 6.00
    Boonen, T 10.00
    Valverde, A 12.00
    Gerrans, S 15.00
    Boasson Hagen, E 17.00
    Nibali, V 17.00
    Rodriguez Olivier, J 19.00
    Freire, O 21.00
    Voeckler, T 25.00
    Kolobnev, A 28.00
    Degenkolb, J 30.00
    Van Avermaet, G 30.00
    Contador, A 35.00
    Nordhaug, L P 35.00
    Cavendish, Mark 40.00
    Sánchez, Samuel 40.00
    Breschel, M 45.00
    Faria Da Costa, R A 45.00
    Albasini, M 50.00
    Boom, Lars 60.00
    Ten Dam, L 200.0
    The dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns
    momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself.
  • pb21
    pb21 Posts: 2,171
    Cleat Eastwood wrote:
    heres some as of 11 oclock
    Sánchez, Samuel 40.00

    Not bad.
    Mañana
  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    Cleat - yoo da man!
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,243
    Ha. My PTP pick at 200/1.

    Don't see any real value in those odds.
  • oneof1982
    oneof1982 Posts: 703
    Saturdays race would be described in horse racing terms as a "cavalry charge". Take your pick, or best keep yer money in yer pocket.
  • ocdupalais
    ocdupalais Posts: 4,314
    JTL's odds?
  • frosty99
    frosty99 Posts: 115
    Nordhaug also a decent outside bet. Good form recently. Was in good position at Amstel but someone crashed into him on the cauberg if I remember correctly
  • Richmond Racer
    Richmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    frosty99 wrote:
    Nordhaug also a decent outside bet. Good form recently. Was in good position at Amstel but someone crashed into him on the cauberg if I remember correctly


    Indeed - Cunego brought him down. My money would be heading the way of the Norwegian pairing of LP and EBH, or alternatively a cheeky flutter in the direction of the Colombian massive.
  • Turfle
    Turfle Posts: 3,762
    In theory it's a very good 1-2 punch; Nordhaug to attack, EBH to be passive (follow Sagan). Worked well for them in Montreal.

    Had a bit of an e/w bet on:
    Henao 125/1
    Meersman 150/1
    Martens 250/1
    Duarte 250/1
  • displacedaussie
    displacedaussie Posts: 356
    OCDuPalais wrote:
    JTL's odds?

    JTL is currently at 25/1. I put £20 on him when he was at 50/1. Figured it was worth a punt!
  • Richmond Racer
    Richmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    displacedaussie wrote:
    OCDuPalais wrote:
    JTL's odds?

    JTL is currently at 25/1. I put £20 on him when he was at 50/1. Figured it was worth a punt!


    THATS why his odds are so ludicrously short despite him never having ridden a 1-dayer of this distance and with a field of this quality. Its you with your £20 quid flutter. :wink:
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    displacedaussie wrote:
    OCDuPalais wrote:
    JTL's odds?

    JTL is currently at 25/1. I put £20 on him when he was at 50/1. Figured it was worth a punt!

    You're gambling at the wrong place. He's 130/1 at Betfair!

    Which is more realistic... but still not enough.
  • thomthom
    thomthom Posts: 3,574
    edited September 2012
    Cavendish a bigger favorite than Matti, Boom, Albasini, Sanchez and Costa.. Laugh of the day.
  • Richmond Racer
    Richmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    ThomThom wrote:
    Cavendish a bigger favorite than Matti, Boom, Albasini, Sanchez.. Laugh of the day.


    Same Brits putting their money down who made Cav favourite for the 'Lympics, innit
  • thomthom
    thomthom Posts: 3,574
    At least Mark had a remotely tiny bit of chance of winning the Olympics. I'm surprised he even participate in this race. I fail to see what he could possibly offer - other than participating out of respect for the rainbow jersey - which is, of course, noble enough.
  • josame
    josame Posts: 1,162
    Who is offering best odds on EBH, he's had an average year - but he's not average :?
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Picking riders based on how long their odds are is crazy.
    _
  • Lichtblick
    Lichtblick Posts: 1,434
    Never mind the odds, who do you want to win?

    Me: Sagan or Voeckler.
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,243
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Picking riders based on how long their odds are is crazy.
    Not really. If you only bet when the odds are wrong (in your favour) then statistically you ought to make a profit eventually. The knack is being able to spot those rare occasions when the odds are just plain wrong.
  • knedlicky
    knedlicky Posts: 3,097
    ThomThom wrote:
    At least Mark had a remotely tiny bit of chance of winning the Olympics. I'm surprised he even participate in this race. I fail to see what he could possibly offer - other than participating out of respect for the rainbow jersey - which is, of course, noble enough.
    If Cavendish were not to take part, he can't be replaced in the GB team because the holders of the rainbow jersey don't count as part of the contingent each country is allowed.
    So he might as well go along for the ride in case he can help the team.

    Same with the women's RR rainbow jersey; Bronzini doesn't count to the Italian contingent. She's probably got an outside chance of retaining her title, so more chance than Cavendish has with his, but if she doesn't start (as rumoured possible because she is fighting a cold), the Italians can't replace her.
  • thomthom
    thomthom Posts: 3,574
    I wasn't aware of that. Cheers.
  • durhamwasp
    durhamwasp Posts: 1,247
    £3 on Boonen at 14/1

    £2 on Contador at 35/1
    http://www.snookcycling.wordpress.com - Reports on Cingles du Mont Ventoux, Alpe D'Huez, Galibier, Izoard, Tourmalet, Paris-Roubaix Sportive & Tour of Flanders Sportive, Amstel Gold Xperience, Vosges, C2C, WOTR routes....
  • avoidingmyphd
    avoidingmyphd Posts: 1,154
    DeadCalm wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Picking riders based on how long their odds are is crazy.
    Not really. If you only bet when the odds are wrong (in your favour) then statistically you ought to make a profit eventually. The knack is being able to spot those rare occasions when the odds are just plain wrong.
    Isn't there a whole profession based on being better at doing this than you are?
  • Art Vandelay
    Art Vandelay Posts: 1,982
    knedlicky wrote:
    ThomThom wrote:
    At least Mark had a remotely tiny bit of chance of winning the Olympics. I'm surprised he even participate in this race. I fail to see what he could possibly offer - other than participating out of respect for the rainbow jersey - which is, of course, noble enough.
    If Cavendish were not to take part, he can't be replaced in the GB team because the holders of the rainbow jersey don't count as part of the contingent each country is allowed.
    So he might as well go along for the ride in case he can help the team.

    Same with the women's RR rainbow jersey; Bronzini doesn't count to the Italian contingent. She's probably got an outside chance of retaining her title, so more chance than Cavendish has with his, but if she doesn't start (as rumoured possible because she is fighting a cold), the Italians can't replace her.

    I'm fairly sure the extra rider entitlement (for existing World, Olympic or Continental Champ) is not applicable for the Elite Men. GB earned 9 riders and could have chosen not to have Cav as part of this selection.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,181
    People seem to forget that odds just reflect the money rather than the actual chance of winning so Brits who don't follow cycling but fancy a flutter will back Cav as they have been told he is reigning champ and wins everything. The bookies are probably loving the fact people are backing him, if he was backed down to favourite they'd be quids in
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Pross wrote:
    People seem to forget that odds just reflect the money rather than the actual chance of winning

    But that shouldn't change whether you think you can make money or not. If Boonen is at 30/1 and I think that he would win the race more times than 1 in 30 then it should be profitable to bet money on it. In the long run. :wink:
  • ContrelaMontre
    ContrelaMontre Posts: 3,027
    Had a hunch about Niki Terpstra ... Just backed him £2.50 ew at 100 /1
    Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster

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