Giro d'Italia 2012 - what's going to happen?

afx237vi
afx237vi Posts: 12,630
edited April 2012 in Pro race
I know there's still a couple of weeks to go, and we still have Romandie to come, but the classics are almost over and watching Trentino today made me start looking forward to the Giro.

So, what's going to happen? Looking at the provisional start list, it seems to me that Nibali would be favourite, then Scarponi (too old?), but then there's a big drop-off where I'm struggling to see riders who could challenge. (OK, OK... Basso...)

Hesjedal for Garmin might get a top 5, but the climbs in Italy don't really suit him. Gadret will be there or thereabouts, but never does anything spectacular. Rujano, who knows. Kessiakoff might be decent. Kloden will probably fall off or get ill from chronic complaining. Uran is on the Sky list, but seems to have off days in the mountains. Pozzovivo will probably be blown away during the opening weekend in Denmark.

The route seems to be heavily weighted towards the back end. First proper mountain stage doesn't come until stage 14:

tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_14.jpg?v=20111013110944

15:

tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_15.jpg?v=20111013110944

17:

tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_17.jpg?v=20111013110945

19:

tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_19.jpg?v=20111013110945

20:

tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_20.jpg?v=20111013110945

Comments

  • greasedscotsman
    greasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    Hmm, looking forward to Liege. The Giro can wait!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Basso won't ride it.

    Is my guess.
    _
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basso won't ride it.

    Is my guess.

    His tweets indicate the opposite. I can't see why he wouldn't at this stage.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    I'm actually surprised Nibali and Basso are both on the startlist. Contador showed last year what happened when you ride both the Giro and Tour... and the Tour is even closer to the Giro this year. I would have put Nibali as main man in the Tour and given him May off.
  • mr_poll
    mr_poll Posts: 1,547
    I am surprised baby Schlek isnt riding for this - I know in his eye's the tour is everything but surely the parcours for this years TdF is not suited to him at all. The long climbs in the Giro are surely his bag - am I missing something?
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    mr_poll wrote:
    I am surprised baby Schlek isnt riding for this - I know in his eye's the tour is everything but surely the parcours for this years TdF is not suited to him at all. The long climbs in the Giro are surely his bag - am I missing something?

    Sponsors don't pay riders £1m+ a year to skip the biggest race of the year
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  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    Mortirolo followed by the Stelvio, that'll be a cracker :D
  • LangerDan
    LangerDan Posts: 6,132
    iainf72 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basso won't ride it.

    Is my guess.

    His tweets indicate the opposite. I can't see why he wouldn't at this stage.

    From the cut of him yesterday, he'll be fine as long as there's some cake at the top of each climb.
    'This week I 'ave been mostly been climbing like Basso - Shirley Basso.'
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    LangerDan wrote:
    iainf72 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basso won't ride it.

    Is my guess.

    His tweets indicate the opposite. I can't see why he wouldn't at this stage.

    From the cut of him yesterday, he'll be fine as long as there's some cake at the top of each climb.

    :lol: He could do with Contadors steak on a string to help him up the climbs.
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    iainf72 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Basso won't ride it.

    Is my guess.

    His tweets indicate the opposite. I can't see why he wouldn't at this stage.

    Why drag yourself through 3 weeks of racing when you're not in with a good chance to win?

    Nibs is a better shout for the Giro and they need some reasonable representation at the Tour.

    Even out of form, 3 weeks of the Giro knackers you out.
    _
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    It's not going to be a vintage year in terms of the strength of the field, but that might just be a good thing as far as the spectacle goes.

    I was watching Cunego yesterday thinking that he looked pretty good and rode very smartly up that climb, then I remembered that 2004 was 8 years ago... if Lampre could get it right the Scarponi/Cunego double act could be effective though, especially in such a shallow field.

    Nibali has to be the favourite though, though hopefully he didn't show himself too early at Oman, TA and MSR.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • rebs
    rebs Posts: 891
    Think it's better when GT's don't have an out and our winner. Hopefully it'll be a race between 3/4 people come to the last TT/Mountain stages.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Basso is about where he needs to be form wise as all the main action for the GC will be in the final ten days, so anyone wanting to win needs to have rising form.

    I think we'll see a straight fight between him and Scarponi with Rodriguez being a wild card to shake things up.
  • Abdoujaparov
    Abdoujaparov Posts: 642
    Any news on whether Nibali is doing it? Tempted by a 40/1 e/w on him at the TdF, but not if he does the Giro.
  • roypsb
    roypsb Posts: 309
    Maybe Nibali will be leader for the Giro and Sagan for TDF?
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    RoyPSB wrote:
    Maybe Nibali will be leader for the Giro and Sagan for TDF?

    Sagan will not be leader for the Tour, not this year, or next - maybe a slim chance in the future, but i'm not sure he will ever fit the role of GT GC man.
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    RoyPSB wrote:
    Maybe Nibali will be leader for the Giro and Sagan for TDF?

    Sagan will not be leader for the Tour, not this year, or next - maybe a slim chance in the future, but i'm not sure he will ever fit the role of GT GC man.

    You don't need to be a GC contender to be a team leader. He's a decent green jersey threat, depending how he goes in the third week.
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    RoyPSB wrote:
    Maybe Nibali will be leader for the Giro and Sagan for TDF?

    Sagan will not be leader for the Tour, not this year, or next - maybe a slim chance in the future, but i'm not sure he will ever fit the role of GT GC man.

    That's a fair point, but would any of the big teams really turn up without a GC team leader? I can't see liquigas taking a Green Jersey team leader and nothing else? (and yes theres capacity for a GC and Sprint leader, but this was an either/or)
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited April 2012
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    That's a fair point, but would any of the big teams really turn up without a GC team leader?

    HTC Columbia never did. While I don't think Sagan will win that many stages, he could dominate the Green Jersey like Kelly (4 stage wins) and Zabel (12 stage wins) did. And that's something an Italian team, for whom the Giro is of massive importance, can hang their Tour hat on.

    As for the Giro - well as Henry Hill reviewed one Giro in Goodfellas: "It was among the Italians. It was real greaseball sh1t.". I expect this year to be no different. Scarponi to win GC and points jersey, Cav to pick up three stages and if it's a terrible race like last year, several fans will say how wonderful it was so people think they're 'proper' fans and not noobs.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    RichN95 wrote:
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    That's a fair point, but would any of the big teams really turn up without a GC team leader?

    HTC Columbia never did. While I don't think Sagan will win that many stages, he could dominate the Green Jersey like Kelly (4 stage wins) and Zabel (12 stage wins) did. And that's something an Italian team, for whom the Giro is of massive importance, can hang their Tour ha on.

    I nearly put in 'other than HTC' but didn't think it would count as having Cav win 5 stages a year puts you in pretty exceptional circumstances. But yes, I know the Italians care for the Giro more than the Tour, so to them it would make sense for Nibs to ride the Giro, though the rest of the outside world disagree. I too think Sagan is a prospect for the Green Jersey, but i thought liquigas would go with more intentions than Green. Looking at it though, if Nibs does ride the Giro, and Basso (who's sh*t anyway - sorry Iain) then it doesn't really leave much hope for the tour, as previously mentioned the Giro and the Tour are closer together this year than last, and it didn't end well for Contador trying to ride both.
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • ms_tree
    ms_tree Posts: 1,405
    It'll be windy and wet in Denmark and will snow in the Dolomiti!!
    'Google can bring back a hundred thousand answers. A librarian can bring you back the right one.'
    Neil Gaiman
  • liquor box
    liquor box Posts: 184
    RichN95 wrote:
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    That's a fair point, but would any of the big teams really turn up without a GC team leader?

    HTC Columbia never did. While I don't think Sagan will win that many stages, he could dominate the Green Jersey like Kelly (4 stage wins) and Zabel (12 stage wins) did. And that's something an Italian team, for whom the Giro is of massive importance, can hang their Tour hat on.

    As for the Giro - well as Henry Hill reviewed one Giro in Goodfellas: "It was among the Italians. It was real greaseball sh1t.". I expect this year to be no different. Scarponi to win GC and points jersey, Cav to pick up three stages and if it's a terrible race like last year, several fans will say how wonderful it was so people think they're 'proper' fans and not noobs.
    I am pretty sure GreenEDGE have decided not to have a "GC" contender for at least a few years. I think they are waiting on Cameron Meyer to get a bit older
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    Is Deny Menchov riding this?
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  • durhamwasp
    durhamwasp Posts: 1,247
    I fancy that Rabobank will fancy one of their Dutch climbers could get a top 5.

    Basso is down to ride this and Nibali in the tour, but Nibali keeps saying he wants to ride the Giro as its a better course for him, in which case Nibali will be the fav! (and Liquigas wont have a tour GC hope)

    Scarponi will be there or thereabouts again, and as you say Hesjedal will want to compete. Rujano may really fancy his chances after his showing last year.
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  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    rebs wrote:
    Think it's better when GT's don't have an out and our winner. Hopefully it'll be a race between 3/4 people come to the last TT/Mountain stages.

    You mean like the 2010 TDF?
  • TMR
    TMR Posts: 3,986
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    You mean like the 2010 TDF?

    I see what you did there.

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