The Hell of the North

rick_chasey

C'mon guys.

Not enough love for the last good race of the year.

Weather forecast for Roubaix so far has rain on Saturday, Sun on Sunday, and rain on Monday.

C'mon. Everyone do the rain dance, people.

LeicesterLad

I'm excited, just less so now that theres no Boonen/Cancellara battle.

andyjr

Just looked down the provisional start list & i'm not really seeing much potential competition for Boonen. Someone from Sky (if they sort out their tactics) should be there or there abouts but after that.....

The rain would make things much more interesting

rick_chasey

So who is Boonen's biggest rival?

LeicesterLad

Rick Chasey wrote:

So who is Boonen's biggest rival?

His own team mates.

iainf72

I'd suggest Ballan or Pozzato are the biggest threats. And they know they need to get rid of Boonen.

rick_chasey

iainf72 wrote:

I'd suggest Ballan or Pozzato are the biggest threats. And they know they need to get rid of Boonen.

Agreed.

Tougher to do in Roubaix.

rubertoe

I cant wait. i personally will be doing the rain dance from now until after the passage of Forest of Arnberg.

Boonen looked like he was suffering in flanders so, i am not sure if he will win - obviously if there is a group there at the end he should.

What about Flecha, I thought he looked pretty stong not having raced in 4 weeks but the roubaix cobble will have a slightly different effect on his hand!

other than - i see a win for BMC, Ballan or Van Avermart

andyjr

If I had to pick someone, i'd go with Flecha. Has been up there before & has a good team behind him

rick_chasey

andyjr wrote:

If I had to pick someone, i'd go with Flecha. Has been up there before & has a good team behind him

Despite the fact he's been out for ages with his broken hand?

inkyfingers

Rick Chasey wrote:

So who is Boonen's biggest rival?

Unless Boonen crashes or does something silly (like going to the back of the group and having a Coke just before Cancellara attacked) then i'm struggling to see who has the form the drop him on the flats. None of the other teams have such strength in depth as OPQS, if they did then they might be able to do it by using a couple of strong guys to put in a number of attacks before their main man puts in a real big attack, but OPQS have several guys capable of helping to rein them in and even BMC and Sky probably don't have the strength to do that unless Hushovd has been sandbagging, which I doubt. Pozzato clearly has great form, but he doesn't have a strong team and I still can't see him dropping Boonen on the flat, same with Ballan. Flecha doesn't look in great shape after his injury, certainly can't see him dropping the other favourites but he'll probably do his normal thing and finish 3rd or something.

If a group stays together then Boonen's big danger would be guys who could possibly beat him in a sprint like Hushovd or Boassen Hagen, but neither of them looked like they have the legs at this point in time.

Of course this is Paris-Roubaix, so all conventional thinking can go out of the window...which is why we all love it so much.

andyjr

Rick Chasey wrote:

andyjr wrote:

If I had to pick someone, i'd go with Flecha. Has been up there before & has a good team behind him

Despite the fact he's been out for ages with his broken hand?

Admittedly makes it harder but he's been up there before. How many others are there who have? Pozzato? Ballan?
Highlights to me the potential lack of competition.

Someone or something has to happen to upset the normal balance of the race; be it crash, weather, solid team work breaking up the group, breakaway etc.

rick_chasey

andyjr wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

andyjr wrote:

If I had to pick someone, i'd go with Flecha. Has been up there before & has a good team behind him

Despite the fact he's been out for ages with his broken hand?

Admittedly makes it harder but he's been up there before. How many others are there who have? Pozzato? Ballan?
Highlights to me the potential lack of competition.

Someone or something has to happen to upset the normal balance of the race; be it crash, weather, solid team work breaking up the group, breakaway etc.

Yeah.
You'd think QS would be able to shut it down in a way the teams couldn't last year.

LangerDan

andyjr wrote:

Admittedly makes it harder but he's been up there before. How many others are there who have? Pozzato? Ballan?
Highlights to me the potential lack of competition.

Hushovd, O'Grady, Van Summeren ? Three former winners who are also lining out on Sunday. Mind you, none of them are going particularly well.

rick_chasey

LangerDan wrote:

andyjr wrote:

Admittedly makes it harder but he's been up there before. How many others are there who have? Pozzato? Ballan?
Highlights to me the potential lack of competition.

Hushovd, O'Grady, Van Summeren ? Three former winners who are also lining out on Sunday. Mind you, none of them are going particularly well.

When did Hushovd win?

The other two won through breaks that got lucky.

bigmat

I take it all back, its going to be Hincapie's year!

LangerDan

Rick Chasey wrote:

LangerDan wrote:

andyjr wrote:

Admittedly makes it harder but he's been up there before. How many others are there who have? Pozzato? Ballan?
Highlights to me the potential lack of competition.

Hushovd, O'Grady, Van Summeren ? Three former winners who are also lining out on Sunday. Mind you, none of them are going particularly well.

When did Hushovd win?

The other two won through breaks that got lucky.

Sorry, brain fart ! - he was second

tailwindhome

Is Sagan a contender here?

andyjr

TailWindHome wrote:

Is Sagan a contender here?

Would be if he were racing, which he's not be the provisional start list

rick_chasey

andyjr wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Is Sagan a contender here?

Would be if he were racing, which he's not be the provisional start list

Saving him for Amstel?

LangerDan

Rick Chasey wrote:

The other two won through breaks that got lucky.

P-R is like that - moreso than the other monuments -its had its share of "lucky" winners. Mind you, you could also say that they made their own luck.

Jez mon

The fact that Boonen was looking less strong at the end of flanders might indicate that he's starting to decline from a peak in form?

It is difficult to see past him though, especially with such a strong team.

I think to an extent you make your own luck in this one, it' definitely a race where fortune can favour the brave.

rick_chasey

LangerDan wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The other two won through breaks that got lucky.

P-R is like that - moreso than the other monuments -its had its share of "lucky" winners. Mind you, you could also say that they made their own luck.

For sure, they got into the break and were the strongest there.

Doesn't mean they're heavy favourites though.

LangerDan

Rick Chasey wrote:

LangerDan wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The other two won through breaks that got lucky.

P-R is like that - moreso than the other monuments -its had its share of "lucky" winners. Mind you, you could also say that they made their own luck.

For sure, they got into the break and were the strongest there.

Doesn't mean they're heavy favourites though.

No - not by any means, but I think the heavy favourites tend to come unstuck in this race more than most others. Its the "Grand National" of pro cycling.

TMR

At the risk of getting shouted at by you lot, I'd like a normal guy to win it this year, like Van Summeren did last year, rather than one of the favourites.

That's if Big George doesn't win it, naturally

andyp

Van Summeren is 6' 5" - how is that normal?

This is a sweeping generalisation, but P-R normally fits into one of two formats;

1. The strongest 3 or 4 riders get away and duke it out for the win.
2. A strong lieutenant is sent up the road and a tactical stalemate behind allows him to win.

rick_chasey

The Mad Rapper wrote:

At the risk of getting shouted at by you lot, I'd like a normal guy to win it this year, like Van Summeren did last year, rather than one of the favourites.

That's if Big George doesn't win it, naturally

Boooring.

Rain dance people.

Then we won't care who wins.

ddraver

Boonen's to loose again I think. Basically i agree with everything inky said...

EBH/Hushovd/?Friere Could take him in a sprint, but it's unlikely,

Not sure Matt Goss has got the power to hold on over the cobbles, but maybe...probably would take Boonen ina sprint too,

Flecha could break away, but it's unlikely, (same with Chavanel, but hopefully no one's told him this so he'll have a crack anyway...)

No hills for a Sagan, a Gilbert, a Gerrans or a Valverde rider, if they were racing...

I'm a bit depressed now....

rick_chasey

No-one thinks Boonen will win?

LangerDan

For anyone out there who doesn't remember how bad P-R used to be (before the advent of crowd barriers, climate change and jet-washed Arenbergs....)

rick_chasey

Yeah, WTF is with the Arenberg not being safe?

Of course it isn't, that's why they're going there.