Cavendish, the Tour, The Olympics

Jez mon

greasedscotsman wrote:

inkyfingers wrote:

Sky have paid big bucks for Cavendish, unless he's ill or injured there is no way he won't be at the Tour.

Sure, but I think an Olympic Gold is worth more to Sky than an other points jersey or stage wins at the Tour. Most of the British public have no idea what they are.

But I reckon your right, he will be at the Tour. He'll want to pick up some stage wins, maybe he'll pull out early, who knows. Just think that's a shame for Wiggins who probably has his best shot at a Tour win and has to take a compromised team along.

Also the suggestion of sending Cavendish to the Giro would be to win the points jersey. But not sure how easy that would be to win, with the different points system there.

TBH, I hadn't checked on the feasibility of the Giro jersey, but think this year would give him his best chance, from the point of view that he can afford to be below par for the tour if he goes for the gold medal in London.

Maybe it depends on Wiggins's form, if he's putting mega power numbers out in the run up to July, Sky would be stupid not to back him, because at the end of the day, the yellow jersey is worth much, much more than the green.

Fundamentally, Cavs job is to sell the Sky brand, he does that a lot better (IMO) as a one time green jersey, World Champion, Olympic Gold Medallist, than as someone who has won two green jerseys and a WC.

iainf72

The Mad Rapper wrote:

My view is the opposite. As far as cycling is concerned, I feel that just about every significant race is more important than the Olympics. I can see that Joe Public, who will not have the passion I have for cycling, or knowledge of these races, their history and significance, may mistakenly consider the Olympics to be 'all that and a bag of chips'.

That's what I think as well. I think I mentioned in the "which races to scrap" that I thought the Olympics road events should go. Along with the green jersey.

iainf72

greasedscotsman wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

The yellow jersey is the only one with any value.

The rest are novelty events and should be abolished.

Not a fan of the Inter Giro at the Tour of Italy then?

Nope. Only care about race leaders jersey in any race.

smithy21

iainf72 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Dissing a Tour jersey, even the green jersey, would be quite an affront to the ASO....

The yellow jersey is the only one with any value.

The rest are novelty events and should be abolished.

The green clearly has value. Cav is on one of the biggest contracts in the sport as a result of his stage wins which are a large part of how he won green.

iainf72

smithy21 wrote:

The green clearly has value. Cav is on one of the biggest contracts in the sport as a result of his stage wins which are a large part of how he won green.

If someone won 2 stages in the Tour and someone else won no stages but got the green jersey, which one do you think is worth more? The green jersey is a side effect of him winning sprints but that doesn't mean it's got any value

Cavendish's contract is down to him winning sprints, and him being lucky the one of the richest teams in the sport is a UK team. If points jerseys didn't exist, he'd still be worth the same as sponsor want to see their brand going over the line first.

smithy21

I would still disagree. A quick google of the list of past winners of the green doesn't throw up too many duds.

iainf72

smithy21 wrote:

I would still disagree. A quick google of the list of past winners of the green doesn't throw up too many duds.

I never said the riders were duds. Just that I think it's a novelty jersey that has no real value

RichN95.

The Mad Rapper wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

Depends I guess on what value people and teams put on the green jersey. I put almost no value on it and can see from a career / recognition perspective the Olympics is far bigger.

Interesting.

My view is the opposite. As far as cycling is concerned, I feel that just about every significant race is more important than the Olympics. I can see that Joe Public, who will not have the passion I have for cycling, or knowledge of these races, their history and significance, may mistakenly consider the Olympics to be 'all that and a bag of chips'.

But the riders clearly think it's a big deal. Sanchez, Cancellara, Bettini and Hamilton all had special bits of kit commemorating their gold medals. I don't see that for Paris-Roubaix or LBL.

Pross

afx237vi wrote:

Ah, in that case, Jeremy Hunt gets the boot.

I'd give Froome the boot ahead of hunt if working for a Cav win.

greasedscotsman

RichN95 wrote:

But the riders clearly think it's a big deal. Sanchez, Cancellara, Bettini and Hamilton all had special bits of kit commemorating their gold medals. I don't see that for Paris-Roubaix or LBL.

Isn't Wiggins a triple gold medal winner, don't see him wearing a pair of gold shoes. Or is that different 'cos it's track?

But I think your right to a point, it's importantance varies from rider to rider. Alot depends on if your capabe of winning it. Didn't Cancellara do a recce of the course last year? Or was that just checking out the TT course after riding the warm up event?

gsvbagpuss

Cav is a fair student of the cycling ways; look how much he cared ove the Worlds Jersey which most people outside cycling wouldn't recognise. So I would expect him to honour the green jersey very highly if he's in it after say 6-7 days.

Sky signed Cav when he became available and there must have been dealings done. Wiggins can't have many GC attempts left so what about Sky support Cav for part, then he drops out to hit the Olympics and Wiggins get full support for his GC aspirations. 2013 is then Cav's full TdF year.

I relaly hope Cav wins the RR, if only for recognition of (road) cycling to increase even further following the SPOTY win. Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

Mad_Malx

GSVBagpuss wrote:

Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

This years MSR performance make this look a distinct possibility and will affect his confidence, but maybe help with motivation. There is a big difference between the two laps on the practice event and 9 laps in the Olympics, and there might not be enough distance from the end of Box Hill back into London to make up a significant gap.

rick_chasey

Mad_Malx wrote:

GSVBagpuss wrote:

Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

This years MSR performance make this look a distinct possibility and will affect his confidence, but maybe help with motivation. There is a big difference between the two laps on the practice event and 9 laps in the Olympics, and there might not be enough distance from the end of Box Hill back into London to make up a significant gap.

Indeed. You know it's going to be tough when both Boonen and Gilbert have made it clear that the olympics is their #1 target of the season.

inkyfingers

Rick Chasey wrote:

Mad_Malx wrote:

GSVBagpuss wrote:

Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

This years MSR performance make this look a distinct possibility and will affect his confidence, but maybe help with motivation. There is a big difference between the two laps on the practice event and 9 laps in the Olympics, and there might not be enough distance from the end of Box Hill back into London to make up a significant gap.

Indeed. You know it's going to be tough when both Boonen and Gilbert have made it clear that the olympics is their #1 target of the season.

I thought nobody outside the British press cared about the Olympic road race?!

Personally i don't think Cav will win, though deep down i'd be pleased if he did. A lot of guys are going to want to make those ascents of Box Hill very fast to try and get rid of guys like Cav and with smaller teams it's going to be hard to bring back a gap on the run in. I think it will be a guy like Hushovd, Gilbert or Boonen who can handle the pace on the climbs and sprint from a small group.

rick_chasey

inkyfingers wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Mad_Malx wrote:

GSVBagpuss wrote:

Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

This years MSR performance make this look a distinct possibility and will affect his confidence, but maybe help with motivation. There is a big difference between the two laps on the practice event and 9 laps in the Olympics, and there might not be enough distance from the end of Box Hill back into London to make up a significant gap.

Indeed. You know it's going to be tough when both Boonen and Gilbert have made it clear that the olympics is their #1 target of the season.

I thought nobody outside the British press cared about the Olympic road race?!

Personally i don't think Cav will win, though deep down i'd be pleased if he did. A lot of guys are going to want to make those ascents of Box Hill very fast to try and get rid of guys like Cav and with smaller teams it's going to be hard to bring back a gap on the run in. I think it will be a guy like Hushovd, Gilbert or Boonen who can handle the pace on the climbs and sprint from a small group.

Ha, did I ever say that?

The course is reasonably similar (though obviously longer) to the Belgian national champs that Boonen won IIRC, albeit with a llonger run in.

Pross

Mad_Malx wrote:

GSVBagpuss wrote:

Worst case for me is that he gets green early, stcisk too long in France and get's dropped on Box Hill.

This years MSR performance make this look a distinct possibility and will affect his confidence, but maybe help with motivation. There is a big difference between the two laps on the practice event and 9 laps in the Olympics, and there might not be enough distance from the end of Box Hill back into London to make up a significant gap.

Or conversely the reasons he wasn't at his best in MSR could suggest that he is concentrating all his efforts on later in the season? He'll certainly be lighter when he's come out of 2 or 3 weeks of a grand tour.

okgo

The RR is not even anywhere near the level of climbing that the MSR has is it? MSR is classed as the sprinters classic, yet still has 13,000 ft of climbing in it...

I can't see him getting dropped on box hill, its just not long enough I don't think, or steep enough.

inkyfingers

Rick Chasey wrote:

Ha, did I ever say that?

The course is reasonably similar (though obviously longer) to the Belgian national champs that Boonen won IIRC, albeit with a llonger run in.

No, but many others have.

phreak

okgo wrote:

The RR is not even anywhere near the level of climbing that the MSR has is it? MSR is classed as the sprinters classic, yet still has 13,000 ft of climbing in it...

I can't see him getting dropped on box hill, its just not long enough I don't think, or steep enough.

Yeah but it's also incredibly long. I'm doing a sportive in France in August that has that level of climbing in around half the distance. The Cipressa and Poggio aren't all that difficult as climbs either. Obviously they'll be flying up them at crazy speeds but it's about as flat as a classic will get.

okgo

My point was that the Olympic run is even flatter, not sure he'd get dropped on Box Hill.

phreak

Hopefully not. He looked pretty bad on Saturday. The Belgian team will be pretty strong. With Wiggins probably not going full gas with one eye on the time trial and Thomas riding purely on the track (and of course Millar not selected) he won't have as strong a team as he might have had. Those three on top form plus one other and you'd fancy them to chase down any breaks that do emerge, but without them Cavendish does look vulnerable.

okgo

Maybe, they'll have some big riders though won't they, who will ride for GB?

phreak

Cavendish, Wiggins are certainties. Then three from the likes of Stannard, Cummings, Hunt, Froome.

It won't be a bad team, just obviously not as strong as it would be if Thomas and Millar were in, and Wiggins was focused purely on the road race.

gsvbagpuss

Loving everyone quoting my post, but not all my typing errors!

I wouldn't be betting on Cav right now; can't see it this year

RichN95.

phreak wrote:

Cavendish, Wiggins are certainties. Then three from the likes of Stannard, Cummings, Hunt, Froome.

It won't be a bad team, just obviously not as strong as it would be if Thomas and Millar were in, and Wiggins was focused purely on the road race.

I wouldn't discount Millar just yet. BOA aren't expected to win their fight with WADA.

Gazzaputt

okgo wrote:

My point was that the Olympic run is even flatter, not sure he'd get dropped on Box Hill.

I agree.

Box Hill maybe the Tourmalet to some in the south but after seeing how some the pros can climb it and make it look a dimple on the landscape.

Also there is plenty of riding after to get back on.

Mad_Malx

Wiggins was heroic in the Worlds and I don't think he will hold back if Cav is in with a shout, and yes, Millar looks likely too. With the right team holding a high tempo he is capable (MSR 2009).

ddraver

The Aussies will desperatly trying to keep it together for Matt Goss too, same if Boonen is given the nod by the Belgians (some fun politics coming there...), same for the USA with Farrar, the germans with Greipel and the French with Feillu. There will be a lot of people trying to make it a sprint (mind you, it might take some big balls for GB to sit up and say you chase though)

Can you imagine what it would be like for the Aussies to knick a result off the poms, when they re favourites, at their own Olympics, literally in the Queen's front garden? That would soothe the hurt of a few Ashes losses!

RadioSchleck

Judging by how he was dropped in Milan San Remo something tells me that a lot of riders will try to do the same again at the olympics when they get to box hill. the classics riders that can climb like ballan gilbert cancellara as well as riders like cunego or nibali will surly put in a big attack or several attacks to drop riders like Cavendish, Griepel and Kittel.

prawny

phreak wrote:

Cavendish, Wiggins are certainties. Then three from the likes of Stannard, Cummings, Hunt, Froome.

It won't be a bad team, just obviously not as strong as it would be if Thomas and Millar were in, and Wiggins was focused purely on the road race.

I don't think wiggo wiggo was focused solely on the RR in copenhagen, but it still worked out ok