Paris-Nice *spoiler*

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Comments

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    As reported on the innrng.

    wiggins-001.jpg
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    It does seem like a long time ago he was a prologue specialist (who never really won any prologues)
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • rebs
    rebs Posts: 891
    Forgive my ignorance, but what's a "Ghost Rider" Rick?

    What have you never played Mariokart?:P
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    FYI:

    UCI WordTour rankings, 11 March 12:

    Individual:

    1 (2) VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro (MOVISTAR TEAM (MOV) 167
    2 (- ) WIGGINS Bradley (SKY PROCYCLING (SKY) 112
    3 (1) GERRANS Simon (GREENEDGE CYCLING TEAM (GEC) 110
    4 (- ) WESTRA Lieuwe (VACANSOLEIL-DCM PRO CYCLING TEAM (VCD) 92
    5 (3) MACHADO Tiago (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN (RNT) 72
    6 (- ) SPILAK Simon (KATUSHA TEAM (KAT) 62
    7 (4) ROGERS Michael (SKY PROCYCLING (SKY) 61
    8 (- ) VAN GARDEREN Tejay (BMC RACING TEAM (BMC) 51
    9 (- ) JEANNESSON Arnold (FDJ-BIG MAT (FDJ) 40
    10 (5) BAKELANTS Jan (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN (RNT) 40
    Contador is the Greatest
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/20 ... ey-wiggins

    I really woulndt be surprised if he won the Tour. The other GC candidates dont look so hot, Contador isnt riding and there is a ton of TT miles.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,651
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/mar/12/paris-nice-tour-de-france-bradley-wiggins

    I really woulndt be surprised if he won the Tour. The other GC candidates dont look so hot, Contador isnt riding and there is a ton of TT miles.

    If he rides as sensibly as he did this week it's certainly a possibility.
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  • dougzz
    dougzz Posts: 1,833
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/mar/12/paris-nice-tour-de-france-bradley-wiggins
    I really woulndt be surprised if he won the Tour. The other GC candidates dont look so hot, Contador isnt riding and there is a ton of TT miles.
    If he rides as sensibly as he did this week it's certainly a possibility.
    I think a different Cadel will be around come July.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,651
    dougzz wrote:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/mar/12/paris-nice-tour-de-france-bradley-wiggins
    I really woulndt be surprised if he won the Tour. The other GC candidates dont look so hot, Contador isnt riding and there is a ton of TT miles.
    If he rides as sensibly as he did this week it's certainly a possibility.
    I think a different Cadel will be around come July.

    Oh I reckon so too. Still think Wiggins could beat him. Might take a touch of luck, but not impossible.
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    Schleck, Wiggins, Evans... would of course be a predictable guess for the podium?? Although, what order, god knows.

    (that's odd, I write 'of' and it replaces it with 'have' ??! odd... honestly try it!)

  • Oh I reckon so too. Still think Wiggins could beat him. Might take a touch of luck, but not impossible.

    My impression is that Wiggins, health and continued growth of form allowing, will beat all comers in the TTs (possibly excluding Cancellara and Tony Martin if they're soft tapping the other stages to keep themselves fresh for the TTs). In the case of the Schlecks by a big margin. Uphill, he's got some pretty decent climbing domestiques to call on (EBH, Porte, Uran, Froome) and a decent diesel engine. To me, this means that unless Cadel has improved his jump and can leap away from the group up hills (not traditionally his forte) that Wiggins could be on for this one...

    I appreciate 'health and continued growth of form' is the big one - it might be that he's peaked too early. Or it might be that he's peaking twice this season. Or it might be that he's not even peaked yet, and we haven't even seen how good he can be yet..

    Or I might be being blinded by patriotism and jingoism. ;-)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Oh I reckon so too. Still think Wiggins could beat him. Might take a touch of luck, but not impossible.

    My impression is that Wiggins, health and continued growth of form allowing, will beat all comers in the TTs (possibly excluding Cancellara and Tony Martin if they're soft tapping the other stages to keep themselves fresh for the TTs). In the case of the Schlecks by a big margin. Uphill, he's got some pretty decent climbing domestiques to call on (EBH, Porte, Uran, Froome) and a decent diesel engine. To me, this means that unless Cadel has improved his jump and can leap away from the group up hills (not traditionally his forte) that Wiggins could be on for this one...

    I appreciate 'health and continued growth of form' is the big one - it might be that he's peaked too early. Or it might be that he's peaking twice this season. Or it might be that he's not even peaked yet, and we haven't even seen how good he can be yet..

    Or I might be being blinded by patriotism and jingoism. ;-)

    Maybe ;).

    I think it all depends on two things.

    1.How Wiggins climbs against the top guys when they're on top form. We've only really got '09 to go on, and there, he was always left a little short on the big stuff.

    2. How well he can recover for that third week TT.

    He clearly can ride with the very best for a week, even two. It's when it gets REALLY big, against the biggest guys who are on top top form.

    I don't mean to take away from the achievement, but both Dauphine and PN were not against all the top riders in top form. For sure, he wasn't on top form either, but it's worth baring in mind. We don't really know the answer to 1 or 2.

  • Oh I reckon so too. Still think Wiggins could beat him. Might take a touch of luck, but not impossible.

    My impression is that Wiggins, health and continued growth of form allowing, will beat all comers in the TTs (possibly excluding Cancellara and Tony Martin if they're soft tapping the other stages to keep themselves fresh for the TTs). In the case of the Schlecks by a big margin. Uphill, he's got some pretty decent climbing domestiques to call on (EBH, Porte, Uran, Froome) and a decent diesel engine. To me, this means that unless Cadel has improved his jump and can leap away from the group up hills (not traditionally his forte) that Wiggins could be on for this one...

    I appreciate 'health and continued growth of form' is the big one - it might be that he's peaked too early. Or it might be that he's peaking twice this season. Or it might be that he's not even peaked yet, and we haven't even seen how good he can be yet..

    Or I might be being blinded by patriotism and jingoism. ;-)

    Maybe ;).

    I think it all depends on two things.

    1.How Wiggins climbs against the top guys when they're on top form. We've only really got '09 to go on, and there, he was always left a little short on the big stuff.

    2. How well he can recover for that third week TT.

    He clearly can ride with the very best for a week, even two. It's when it gets REALLY big, against the biggest guys who are on top top form.

    I don't mean to take away from the achievement, but both Dauphine and PN were not against all the top riders in top form. For sure, he wasn't on top form either, but it's worth baring in mind. We don't really know the answer to 1 or 2.

    All this is true. I just hope that as you say the health and form are there in July and that we can find out rather than have a missed oppurtunity like last year.
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    pn12st07-wow.jpg
    Contador is the Greatest
  • PBo
    PBo Posts: 2,493
    that is as awesome a cycling picture as I've ever seen......
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    I think he will absolutely destroy them in the TT - 1.5-4mins depending on rider in EACH TT. 100km of TT riding!!!

    It means the GC riders, the Schlecks, especially, need to go seriously hard in the mountains. Should make for good viewing.

    Like attacking from the first slope on this stage like Contador:
    PROFIL.gif
    Contador is the Greatest
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    PBo wrote:
    that is as awesome a cycling picture as I've ever seen......

    Yeah it is pretty beautiful. Looking for a hi-res and trying to find the location. If anyone knows?
    Contador is the Greatest
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    cuts through jingoistic support for Brit riders,

    What on earth is that supposed to mean?

    Pretty obvious isn't it? Many of us get a bit over excited at Brits doing well in big bike races, probably because it is a new experience in most of our life times.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Pross wrote:
    cuts through jingoistic support for Brit riders,

    What on earth is that supposed to mean?

    Pretty obvious isn't it? Many of us get a bit over excited at Brits doing well in big bike races, probably because it is a new experience in most of our life times.

    Yeah.

    Reads a little harsher than I intended it.

    Doesn't mean I'm right.

    In 09 everyone was getting really excited about Cav just before M-SR and I was at pains to tell everyone that he was still really young, he's never shown at that distance before, etc etc.

    (though not on here, obviously...)

    I also said Wiggin's 4th place in the Tour was a big fluke.
  • PBo
    PBo Posts: 2,493
    Pross wrote:
    cuts through jingoistic support for Brit riders,

    What on earth is that supposed to mean?

    Pretty obvious isn't it? Many of us get a bit over excited at Brits doing well in big bike races, probably because it is a new experience in most of our life times.

    Yeah.

    Reads a little harsher than I intended it.

    Doesn't mean I'm right.

    In 09 everyone was getting really excited about Cav just before M-SR and I was at pains to tell everyone that he was still really young, he's never shown at that distance before, etc etc.

    (though not on here, obviously...)

    I also said Wiggin's 4th place in the Tour was a big fluke.

    To be fair though, I actually feel that most people are being realistic. No-ones saying he's nailed on, everyone says the course plays to his strengths, he has a solid enough climbing engine that the other GC contenders need to put in a big effort to put time into him that he can't compensate with in the TTs. He just won Paris-Nice. To regard him as a podium contender, with all the caveats about unknowns, health, form etc. is fair. I think we are getting exited, but not necc. overly jingoistic.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    True true.

    He's certainly very bullish in his latest guardian column.
  • PBo wrote:
    that is as awesome a cycling picture as I've ever seen......

    Yeah it is pretty beautiful. Looking for a hi-res and trying to find the location. If anyone knows?

    It's Sisteron. Stayed there in '07 whilst riding down from Grenoble to Mt' Ventoux, town is very pretty as well.
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Thanks.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • dougzz
    dougzz Posts: 1,833
    I think Wiggins will do well in the TdF, I don't think he'll win. This is not patriotism, as I'm neither Belgian or Australian :wink: But wouldn't it be fantastic for British Cycling if he did win, a British TdF champion, it's an awesome thought.

    I think with all the TTing Cadel on form has to be fav, but you have to wonder about his appalling T-A, just poor form at this time of year, or illness maybe. But what I think may make the race this year, is that the climbers that can't TT, obviously thinking particularly about the Schlecks here, have to attack all the mountain stages. If they can't put minutes into Wiggo and Evans they're not going to win. On this subject can as an accomplished climber as Andy Schleck, a LBL winner, really be such a poor TTer. You'd think he'd at least make some sort of effort to improve it, obviously he's not going to become Canc or Tony Martin, but he ought to be better than he is, or the TdF (on the road) will always elude him.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,695
    I really hope he does win, I would be so pleased.

    I think he has the potential to beat Evans in all of the TT's, but I think that would leave very little room for error. If I was either of them I would try to break away from the other in the last kms of a few summit finishes to gain the odd 20-30 seconds (if possible). Ironically, much like Andy Schleck did last year. I think if both Cadel and Bradley were to ride "perfect" races then Cadel would win, but on the other hand, Cadel is no stranger to a cock up or two. Both BMC and Sky have other riders with ambitions (Gilbert, Husovd and Cavendish), so neither rider will be the 100% focus for their team. I hope the Schlecks and the other climbers step up as if they re taking big risks to put time into the TTers in the mountains, we could be in for a great 3 weeks!

    A British win is definitely possible, but I think he will need the odd bit of luck. If I had to make a PTP pick today, I'd go Evans, but I'd be cheering for Wiggins.

    (Great pic btw - my geogeek is getting all excited)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    Then, of course, there's that Froome fella, not to mention trying to protect Cav. Could be amazing tour for SKY or could all go wrong. I guess if at least one of them doesn't come home with a jersey t will be seen as all going wrong.
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • oldwelshman
    oldwelshman Posts: 4,733
    I think some riders will now actually worry about Wiggo. If Contador had been there would have been a different story as he is excellent TT and also attacking rider.
    I can't see Shrek and Evans putting huge amounts into Wiggo on climbs as they will also watch each other, Wiggins has no need to attack on climbs, just need domestics to keep a good pace to try to reduce attacks and limit any losses though he looks very strong climbing the last year, could be interesting.
    If he does not win I dont see sky getting TDF winner withing their target time :D
  • rebs
    rebs Posts: 891
    Funny how thigns work. The whole 5 year TDF champ seemed to be a massive pipe dream. Now seems like a very acheivable goal. Whether he wins or not. They are giving it their best shot.
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    Well Contador did the double (P-N, TdF) as did Merckx and Anquetil but interestingly Indurain won P-N the two years before he went on to his run of TdFs.
    Of course Evans won Tirreno-Adriatico last year so he's not necessarily peaking too early.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    iainf72 wrote:

    Another stat: Of the previous riders to have won both the Dauphine and Paris-Nice, only two haven't also won the Tour, and those two both won a Grand Tour.

    (Of course all these sort of things are generally meaningless)
    Twitter: @RichN95