What does the future hold ?
seataltea
Posts: 594
Having only returned to riding five years ago, even in that short time I've seen some remarkable advances in materials, weight, style, strength and price.
Moores Law has held good for electronics for the last 40yrs but what similar expectations can be had of the bike market.
In 10yrs can I expect to be able to buy a 15lb, full carbon bike with some form of tiptronic electronic wireless shifting and ABS braking, paddles for the gearchange, built in batteries to power lights and onboard electronics, a drop in Gruber Assist slot for when you really just can't be bothered (don't flame me for mentioning electric assist) for £1000 ?
There are obvious predictions for cars, greater economy, more power, alternative fuels, driverless tech, but where are bikes going.
Moores Law has held good for electronics for the last 40yrs but what similar expectations can be had of the bike market.
In 10yrs can I expect to be able to buy a 15lb, full carbon bike with some form of tiptronic electronic wireless shifting and ABS braking, paddles for the gearchange, built in batteries to power lights and onboard electronics, a drop in Gruber Assist slot for when you really just can't be bothered (don't flame me for mentioning electric assist) for £1000 ?
There are obvious predictions for cars, greater economy, more power, alternative fuels, driverless tech, but where are bikes going.
'nulla tenaci invia est via'
FCN4
Boardman HT Pro fully X0'd
CUBE Peleton 2012
Genesis Aether 20 all season commuter
FCN4
Boardman HT Pro fully X0'd
CUBE Peleton 2012
Genesis Aether 20 all season commuter
0
Comments
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in about 4 hours mine will be going home from work with me on it.0
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You can already get a sub 15lb bike if you are prepared to pay for it.
Likewise electronic shifting and most road bikes already come with "paddle" levers.
I guess that the Shimano battery could be modified to power lights as well so the only thing missing is the electrical assist. Although the battery for that will likely take you over 15 lbs. Then again, if you have electrical assist then the bike weight is not so important.
Conclusion - Since there are already electrical assist bikes then your prediction came true before you predicted it
None of the above should be taken seriously, and certainly not personally.0 -
If you take the car analogy then the future is scary, my diesel golf makes 170psi and does an average of 56mpg (calculated figure based on use) but due to all the safety sh1t it weighs roughly the same as a series one LandRover. It's fairly sprightly, but graft that oomph into a 70s lotus and it would do a stupid quarter mile and return 70mpg at least........wait for mandatory antilock brakes and airbags on new bicycles folks.
author is only half.kidding. Seatbelts for motorcycles once got as far as the floor of the commons.....shudderFCN 5 belt driven fixie for city bits
CAADX 105 beastie for bumpy bits
Litespeed L3 for Strava bits
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.0 -
SimonAH wrote:It's fairly sprightly, but graft that oomph into a 70s lotus and it would do a stupid quarter mile and return 70mpg at least.
It's called an Elise
Back to OP - what does the future hold? Nothing that is really going to make any significant difference to my experience of riding my bike!Faster than a tent.......0 -
I saw a fortune teller once. Charged me £40 for her trouble. Must have seen me coming. Nobody told me we had a communication problem0
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