Recession
Comments
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verylonglegs wrote:They've obviously seen this thread today and have decided to do something...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14985709
The Tories discover a £12bn hole in public finance, and then they agree to spend an extra £5bn....
Wasn't this the kinda stuff they were criticising Labour for?
Seems a little Keynesian for them.0 -
Was listening to the freakaconomics podcast, which was about predicting the future.
Turns out well informed predictors are only very marginally more accurate than either ill-informed or random predictions.
There's a multi-million dollar economist bank role waiting for me yet!
(the podcast suggested that the best way to sort predictions out was to score people on them - I shall endeavour to see how accurate or not we all were).0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:verylonglegs wrote:They've obviously seen this thread today and have decided to do something...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14985709
The Tories discover a £12bn hole in public finance, and then they agree to spend an extra £5bn....
Wasn't this the kinda stuff they were criticising Labour for?
Seems a little Keynesian for them.
Or just desperate...0 -
verylonglegs wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:verylonglegs wrote:They've obviously seen this thread today and have decided to do something...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14985709
The Tories discover a £12bn hole in public finance, and then they agree to spend an extra £5bn....
Wasn't this the kinda stuff they were criticising Labour for?
Seems a little Keynesian for them.
Or just desperate...
Some would say it's the same thing :P0 -
johnfinch wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:(How's the newly wed wife?)
Doing a job for which she's overqualified, working for a manager who is incompetent. :evil:
Standard.0 -
My ill informed guess is...anywhere between -0.5% and +0.5%.
More precise than that...I think I'll go for 0.4%, some of the big UK engineering firms are reporting positively. Jag Land Rover, new factory in Coventry, RR-PLC has an orderbook for so many jet engines that they will have to double in size (downside is lots of the increase in manufacturing capacity will come from building factories abroad)
As for inflation and peoples personal finances...
I have a reasonably well off brother who works as a market research consultant out in the UAE. He left before the financial crisis really hit, and has visited the UK once or twice a year, for roughly a week each time, staying with friends and family dotted around the country.
On his trips back, he gives himself £2K pocket money, and basically treats everyone to a nice meal/drinks/food shop/etc.
He used to go back with around £1K in change, the last time it was £200
Some nights in the UAE he often thinks about coming back home, but when he visits, he quickly has second thoughts.
Of course, it's a thoroughly unscientific study, but it's a snapshot showing that a set amount of money used to go a heck of a lot further.You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
Jez mon wrote:.....some of the big UK engineering firms are reporting positively. Jag Land Rover,...
Can't help thinking the Jaguar Land Rover news on Monday wasn't quite as good as it is made out to be. Most of their engines are currently made in Dagenham and Bridgend by Ford so the chances are there will be job cuts there due to the reduction in demand. I'm sure there will be a net gain but when it was being roundly applauded on Monday I was surprised that no interviewer raised that point :? Great for the Midlands obviously and will bring construction jobs.0 -
.... and there really haven't been any overall cuts yet:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpres ... 570308255A
They might have cut a few things, but they're spending more on others.
If they don't get some control on this soon, the bond bubble will burst and IRs will increase dramatically. Alternatively they keep printing and making the banks buy the govt bonds .... but then we very quickly become Zimbabwe.
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All my business is based in the Hospitality and Events Sector in Edinburgh and some stats show that UK people are "ring fencing" their main holiday but holding back on the second breaks or weekends aways so UK based visitors to Edinburgh are down YoY. The Edinburgh Fringe had record ticket sales this year and the Castle and many visitor attractions are showing good growth year on year. Many business is coming fromt the Eastern European market and Asia esp China and India. Noticiably more Germans than usual seems to be the case too whilst Edinburgh maintained the 3rd highest hotel room rates in Europe after London and Paris. Still a good volume of leisure events - weddings etc but fewer big corporate bashes. Have spent heavily in the Construction sector this year and the various people involved in that all claim to be in a really depressed state. Food price increases though have goosed a critical income line for hospitality where food inflation averaged 20% which is a ridiculous figure to cope with at this time.0
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Things seem to be hotting up this evening. I came across this page ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... -live.html ) about 2 hours ago, and since then Moody's downgraded the Bank of America by two points while Standard and Poor's, not to be outdone, have just downgraded 7 Italian banks. There'll be some glum faces in the City tomorrow.0
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Whilst the process of socialising the debts of the financial sector (accrued in the good years, then adopted by/handed off to the Gov't through various means) grinds on slowly, I think we're going to see very little movement in any direction with regards to growth/contraction.
Some Q's may be up, some down. Nothing outside of -1%
1%. Somewhere in there. The Gov't are mainly in control of the situation, dishing out the cuts where they see fit. By socialising the debts to the largest sectors of society they essentially spread the risk (of anger, backlash, instability). Most people/sectors/industries (not everyone!) suffers a bit, but no one suffers catastrophically.
It's a safe game but it's a bit sh!t for those who never did anything wrong.
What we do need to watch out for are these sovereign debt crises. They really could hit hard. If someone defaults then yes it may blow up and we could go into a deep recession. Fortunately it's in everyone's interest to prop them up for now, even if everything points to 'default' (the rules of the game simply get re-written to prevent it).
It's depressing really. I managed to get myself a job this summer (wasn't so lucky previously) but i know plenty who didn't or have finished their degree's and have no real prospects. Meanwhile the rich are getting richer (more and more billionaires each year. Fact).0
