Cavendish - The Future

inkyfingers

Don't normally start new threads but have been mulling over in my mind what his future might bring. Not in terms of which team he rides for, but more along the lines of which races he might target.

Do you think he will just continue to focus on being the top sprinter in the world till he retires or might we see him try to change his training to be more competitive in the classics (MSR excepted). I assume that in order to have the necessary endurance he'd probably lose some top end speed, would it be worth it? do you think he would want to do it? could he do it? He's said before that he'd like to be competitive in Flanders Roubaix etc, but saying it and actually doing it are different things.

Tom Butcher

I can't see it happening - maybe if he'd shown potential in the cobbled classics but he hasn't - apart from anything else the teams that are going to be able to afford him aren't paying that sort of money for a second rate classics rider.

luckao

I see a lot of hatemail involved in his future, all of which refers to him as 'Cavendishy'.

graeme_s-2

Luckao wrote:

I see a lot of hatemail involved in his future, all of which refers to him as 'Cavendishy'.

I can see it now, a stack of letters hand written in blood, all including the phrase "WHY WON'T YOU LOVE ME LIKE I LOVE YOU!?"

pat1cp

Increased endurance and a loss of top end speed occur natrually, look at Thor's career.

inkyfingers

Luckao wrote:

I see a lot of hatemail involved in his future, all of which refers to him as 'Cavendishy'.

Can we try and not encourage the troll, if possible i'd appreciate a mature discussion.

Bronzie

I don't think he's a strong enough rider to do well in the cobbled classics...........but I'd love him to prove me wrong.

His modus operandi is surfing wheels in the bunch and using as little energy as possible until it comes to the crunch. I think the finale of Flanders and P-R needs a big, big engine to ride in the small groups that form near the end and I simply don't think Cav has that big a motor.

rick_chasey

Cavendish's raison d'être is speed, not power.

He might win G-W, he might win a worlds, but forget Flanders' finest and the hell.

Yellow Peril

I can't see him winning P-R. He just seems too small to make the necessary progress over the cobbles. I think L-B-L will always be too hilly but there are plenty of other spring races he could look to win.

I wonder if he'll make a special effort to get the Giro points jersey now just to complete the wardrobe!

Echo et les Boniments

There are a couple of records he could go for: most stage wins ever in the Tour de France, most stage wins ever in the Giro d'Italia... Other than that, obvious picks are an Olympic road title in London, or a rainbow jersey. Like, is he going to Copenhagen? Seems like a pretty sprinter-friendly World Championship...

Honestly, I don't see him winning in Roubaix or conquering the Flanders...

dougzz

I think until he finds himself uncompetitive at sprinting it'll just be more of the same, and why not. GT stages, more points jerseys, and the odd MSR, PT and hopeflly those WC rainbows.

graeme_s-2

Echo et les Boniments wrote:

There are a couple of records he could go for: most stage wins ever in the Tour de France, most stage wins ever in the Giro d'Italia... Other than that, obvious picks are an Olympic road title in London, or a rainbow jersey. Like, is he going to Copenhagen? Seems like a pretty sprinter-friendly World Championship...

British Cycling have been planning a proper tilt at the Rainbow Jersey based around Cavendish as far back as 2008, and have been waiting for an appropriate course to present itself. You bet he's going to Copenhagen.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... ersey.html

pat1cp

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

rick_chasey

pat1cp wrote:

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

Depends on how the Brits do but I think they're on track for have the full 9 riders.

Will have to see though.

RichN95.

In the short term there are plenty of 'new' targets: Win a stage in the 2011 Vuelta (only three riders have won a stage in all three GTs in the same year), the Worlds, Gent-Wevelgem, Paris-Tours perhaps, the Olympics.

Medium term: Merckx's Tour stage record is certainly doable, his GT stage wins record is a little harder (Cav is currently 11th on the all-time list). A points jersey in the Giro will need a change of thinking from the Giro organisers.

Medium-long term: I don't think he'll ever be up to challenging in the Ronde, I can see him possibly contending Roubaix. He may not be big, but small riders have won before (van Petegem, O'Grady)

pat1cp

Rick Chasey wrote:

pat1cp wrote:

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

Depends on how the Brits do but I think they're on track for have the full 9 riders.

Will have to see though.

Bradlee's broken wing won't have done him any favours then. The grudge continues !!

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

pat1cp wrote:

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

Depends on how the Brits do but I think they're on track for have the full 9 riders.

Will have to see though.

The UCI rules on this seem a little obscure, but by my reading of them, the top ten nations (of which GB seems likely to be one) only get nine riders if they have nine riders who have scored a ranking point (currently GB have five). The top 10 guarantees a minimum of six riders, but above that you have to have enough ranked riders.

But that's just my reading of it.

jswba

Echo et les Boniments wrote:

There are a couple of records he could go for: most stage wins ever in the Tour de France, most stage wins ever in the Giro d'Italia... Other than that, obvious picks are an Olympic road title in London, or a rainbow jersey. Like, is he going to Copenhagen? Seems like a pretty sprinter-friendly World Championship...

Honestly, I don't see him winning in Roubaix or conquering the Flanders...

He'll struggle to get the Giro record. Cipo won something like 42.

Pross

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

pat1cp wrote:

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

Depends on how the Brits do but I think they're on track for have the full 9 riders.

Will have to see though.

The UCI rules on this seem a little obscure, but by my reading of them, the top ten nations (of which GB seems likely to be one) only get nine riders if they have nine riders who have scored a ranking point (currently GB have five). The top 10 guarantees a minimum of six riders, but above that you have to have enough ranked riders.

But that's just my reading of it.

I understood that to be the case (World Tour points?). I think so far we have Wiggins, Cav, Swift, Millar and Geraint.

GB currently ranked 9th 100 points ahead of Switzerland in 11 - glad that Canc had a relatively poor Tour this year.

FJS

Rick Chasey wrote:

pat1cp wrote:

How much help will Cav have at the Worlds ?

Depends on how the Brits do but I think they're on track for have the full 9 riders.

Will have to see though.

If I'm not mistaken it'll be 6 at most. GB is on track to just about become a top 10 nation in the World Tour, but even then you only get as many riders as scored WorldTour points, with a minimum of 6; so that'll be 6 then...

Pross

Olympics, Worlds, Paris-Tours and Ghent-Wevelgem would probably be the biggest ones for him going forwards together with loads more stages in the GTs. To win something like RVV or P-R he would have to sacrifice winning regularly and even then there are likely to be other riders better equipped to take them.

This years Worlds with a team comprising:-

Cav
Wiggins
Geraint
Stannard
Hunt
Millar

will give him a chance.