9 Days In, Whats The Verdict

LeicesterLad

Right, so we are 9 days in to the TdF, and as the first 9 days go, this year has been a good one, for numerous reasons, some of them more sickening than others, obviously.

So with the exit of Vino, Wiggo, Van Den Broeck, and a suspect knee for Bertie, its time to pick your winner for the tour...

I would say Cuddles, he looks on top form to me, but I have a nagging feeling in the back of my mind telling me he just can't do it. It looks possible for Schleck this year, Very possible, but if he wheel-sucks all the way to paris its going to be a very uneventful last 2 weeks :roll: and then theres Voeckler, a 2 1/2 minute lead is not to be sniffed at....

Its a tough call.

rick_chasey

Family Schleck's gonna come 1 & 2 now.

Contador looks like he's riding a sprocket bigger, though in reality he's probably just strugging to get ontop of gears he would normally.

Evans I don't think has the climbing ability to limit his losses enough to be within striking distance in the TT.

No Vino's a loss, since he's always good value.

Van Den Broeck has been racier this season, throwing in the odd attack, which was fun.

Gesink's pretty much gone.


Contador has that Evans look - if it can go wrong, it probably will.

Evans I think is just not quite good enough, and, by his nature, he'll struggle to be exciting in the mountains just becase he'll be on the limit.

The best competition is Green, with Gilbert versus Cav.

Mountains - I think we all want Hoogerland to win it now.

LeicesterLad

Rick Chasey wrote:

Mountains - I think we all want Hoogerland to win it now.

+1 After what Hoogerland dealt with yesterday and watching his post race interview, absolutely top, top bloke IMO.

green jersey has been about the most exciting thing this year, mainly down to Gilbert being great fun to watch, so thumbs up to the race organisers!

Gazzetta67

It`s a pity Gilbert cant climb the big mountains - he`s brilliant to watch unlike the Shreks who constantly follow wheels have they been hanging around with that other wheelsucker Leipheimer ? Evans looks in good form but can he stay with Contador ?

Contador is still bound to be tired from the Giro but we have still 2 weeks to go and he will take at least 2 mins out of Shrek in the TT.

Biggest dark horse for me is Basso....He thrashed Evans last year at the Giro

MrTapir

LeicesterLad wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Mountains - I think we all want Hoogerland to win it now.

+1 After what Hoogerland dealt with yesterday and watching his post race interview, absolutely top, top bloke IMO.

green jersey has been about the most exciting thing this year, mainly down to Gilbert being great fun to watch, so thumbs up to the race organisers!

I think so far the race for maillot jaune has been amazing, with Hushovd holding on to it for so long and climbing really well, eg up to Super Besse Sancy, to see him finishing with the top climbers was awesome, he must have been right on the limit. And now with Voeckler getting it yesterday, he looked made up on the podium.

The action has been incredible this year, for the right and wrong reasons. I really think the changes to the green jersey comp have made it much more exciting, with the top sprinters actually contesting the intermediate sprints. Overall its pretty much been edge of the seat stuff all the way!

And yes Hoogerland for the polka dot jersey definitely.

verylonglegs

Sentiment aside I'd have thought Hoogerland would have struggled to keep that jersey without his horrible accident given the rule changes to the points system, the value of the lower climbs has been removed and there is still double points for the mountain top finishers. I reckon maybe one Schleck with the yellow and the other with the polka dot. I'm still expecting Evans to have one bad day on the high mountain stages, really wouldn't want to waste my time trying to guess the podium order now with all the abandons.

OffTheBackAdam

Let's hope this race kills off the prologue TT and stage bonifications.
Contador looks somewhat less than the Mr Invincible he was at the Giro. Evans looks good, the Shreks haven't missed a move & Voekler will fight like a drowning man to keep that jersey. Snachez is no slouch in the hills either.
We'll have to wait until the real mountains, before we see who's really up there.
Green jersey? Gilbert's got a strong grip on it, but we know Hushvod's able to go up the road and get points & Evans isn't far behind. Cav still desires it & he'll get the points on the flatter stages.
Mountains? I expect one of the podium finishers to get that.
Here's a possible scenario. Evans gets all three jerseys.

andyjr

Well, having been away since 3pm Friday it seems I have missed rather a lot. Carnage all over the place. My thoughts- Yellow could go any number of ways- Evans looks good but still not convinced that he is quite capable of living with the pure climbers in the high mountains when the rapid accelations start. Bertie- thanks to him being involved in a number of crashes will have to come out an attack which will certainly put some more excitement in to the preccedings & we'll get to see what shape he's really in. The Schlecks have so far kept themsleves out of trouble but we & they know that they are going to lose time in TT so are they going to be on time management so that one of them ends up in Yellow? Others- Basso is in there with a shout if his form continues to improve, Tony Martin if he can stay with the climbers may be in with a shout of a high place finish

Green- 3 way fight between Gilbert, Cav & Rojas. Cav needs big points on the next couple of stages to stand any hope, otherwise can see Gilbert keeping this

rick_chasey

verylonglegs wrote:

Sentiment aside I'd have thought Hoogerland would have struggled to keep that jersey without his horrible accident given the rule changes to the points system, the value of the lower climbs has been removed and there is still double points for the mountain top finishers. I reckon maybe one Schleck with the yellow and the other with the polka dot. I'm still expecting Evans to have one bad day on the high mountain stages, really wouldn't want to waste my time trying to guess the podium order now with all the abandons.

You'd be surprised how full on Hoogerland's attacks can be... He's not a bad climber either.

Peter Post pre-crash was sounding quite bullish about Hoogerland's chances in polka dot.

emadden

Not sure if Im really enjoying the race so far... The race is only selective because of the crashes - not the parcours. Up until yesterday's stage the time gaps at the top of the GC were bordering on a joke for a race 8 days old... Yes I like sprint stages, but not so many. Ok, we had two hilly finishes in the first few days, (stage 1 and stage 4) but those challenges only came in the last few Kms... The rest of the parcours has been uninspiring

All the talk about stage 8 and stage 9 being "mountain" stages or "an introduction to the mountains" is a joke.. The last climbs on both days were just Ardenne style parcours... I guess Im impatient for the mountains... Stages 10 and 11 are also a bit damp... So we have to wait until July 14 for a proper mountain battle... almost two weeks after the start :roll: This is why (in my opinion) the Giro has become a much better race over the last few years...

As for the GC... I think its gonna be a battle between Basso, Schlecks and Evans for the podium... I think Contador is looking very tired and seems to lack explosiveness.... But lets see!

bigmat

I think the crashes have spoilt a good first week. Was really looking forward to seeing how Wiggins would get on and to a lesser extent Van den Broek and Gesink - only Gesink left and he looks crocked. It should be Shleck's race now. Basso is a wild card and don't write off Evans, but he looks to be in peak form now to me, think he might struggle in week 3. Bertie could still come good but I hope not - better for the sport to have a winner without that cloud over him.

Green looks done and dusted for Gilbert now - he can do the Hushovd style surprise attack for intermediaries on most of the mountain stages, not enough flat stages left for Cav to pick up points and anyway Phil has shown he's not far behind in the sprints. Think Lotto will favour him over Greipel now the green jersey is a serious objective. Only hope for Cav is if Gilbert tires in the third week - Cav's tour experience may pay off, and he's a shoe in for Paris.

Mountains? Who knows, any one of the top GC guys who feels out of contention come the Alps could mop up a lot of points.

thecrofter

Gazzetta67 wrote:

Biggest dark horse for me is Basso....He thrashed Evans last year at the Giro

That's the sort of thingI like to hear. He's my each way bet.

Tom Butcher

I'm not writing Contador off yet but agree Andy Schleck is looking a slight favourite over Contador but with Frank, Basso and Evans all with realistic outside chances. I read Contador is struggling a bit with a knee injury now - hard to know if that is serious or possibly a bluff.

Shame that some of the outside favourites - Wiggins, Horner, VDB and even Vino - have been eliminated so early but there are still the likes of Gesink, Cunego, Kloden, Velits etc who might make things interesting in that they are good enough that the favourites can't give them the kind of lead they've given Voeckler. Talking of Tommy I'm really interested to see how long he can hold onto that jersey - Sean Kelly was talking about Thursday but I think he might last longer than that.

Gazzaputt

Been a good tour so far.

Crashes though have weakened the GC.

Cuddles for me.

calvjones

thecrofter wrote:

Gazzetta67 wrote:

Biggest dark horse for me is Basso....He thrashed Evans last year at the Giro

That's the sort of thingI like to hear. He's my each way bet.

Basso went quicker than Evans up one particularly ridiculously steep climb. When Evans (claims at least he) was ill.

I'd like to be proved wrong but I think the lack of really steep climbs in France and without the dominant team to control the race (e.g. downhill...) the best Basso will get is top 5.

iainf72

calvjones wrote:

I'd like to be proved wrong but I think the lack of really steep climbs in France and without the dominant team to control the race (e.g. downhill...) the best Basso will get is top 5.

Basso is better on the less steep climbs I would say. At the race gets harder, if he's in form he wil be there or there abouts.

Remember in the Giro he also got rid of Evans after the Zoncalon.

I don't think we know anything yet in this race. The short sharp climbs to the finish might make things slightly more interesting but they don't really reflect what's going to happen in the big mountains.

Monty Zoncolan

I agree with the sentiments above regarding the effects of the crashes - watching stages now thinking, "Where would Wiggins/Vino/etc have come in." takes a little bit of the fun out of it.

I still believe that we haven't seen enough of the main contenders to really know how each of them will do, but will revise my predicted podium to read:

1. Andy Schelck
2. Cadel Evans
3. Ivan Basso*

I hope the KOM is Hoogerland for obvious reasons - not just the sympathy vote but because he's gone out and grabbed it. Also his sanguine (no pun intended) reaction to yesterday's disgraceful treatment by the tv car.

I think Gilbert will do enough in intermediate sprints and lumpy finishes to hold on to the green jersey, especially since his team have lost their best GC contender.



*As dark horses go, part of me still thinks Denis Menchov is in with a shout. So good is he at evading attention to grab a podium spot, I'm not even deterred by him./his team not officially being in the race.

calvjones

Evans' problem is that all the other contenders (Bertie excepted) are sh1t TTers so its in their interest to make it harder in the mountains. The loss of VDB, Wiggo (and maybe Klodi?) means there won't be a second group in the climbs and he may be alone...

blazing_saddles

Remove the dramatic element of the various crashes from the first week of the past two editions of Le Tour and this year comes out on top................but not by much.
It has benefited from Phil Gilbert turning out.

I was on the hill in Muy de Bretagne and was amazed by the size of the group. But for Vino on the Super Besse stage, the situation would have been the same: racing begins at the red kite.

I now fear for the remainder of this edition, with Vino out of the mix and Contador carrying a knee problem.

The rest seem content to race like sheep, huddled around the conservative Schlecks and their big mate.

Tends to suggest to me, that with a number of undercard contenders out, the rest are already racing for those coverted 3rd to 6th spots.
I hope I am wrong or else the mountains could turn into a terminal bore.

rick_chasey

iainf72 wrote:

calvjones wrote:

I'd like to be proved wrong but I think the lack of really steep climbs in France and without the dominant team to control the race (e.g. downhill...) the best Basso will get is top 5.

Basso is better on the less steep climbs I would say. At the race gets harder, if he's in form he wil be there or there abouts.

How's Basso's TTing nowadays?

I always thought he was good after the 2005 Giro, but I can't remember him doing anything exciting in TTs ever since.

deal

Contador looking slightly human, presumably there is a big steak being rushed up from Spain right now.

RichN95.

According to SBS (Aussie broadcaster) on twitter, Contador had to leave the Saxo training ride early this morning. His knee is definitely a big problem.

LeicesterLad

deal wrote:

Contador looking slightly human, presumably there is a big steak being rushed up from Spain right now.

:roll: Im not going to argue for Contador again, im not even a Fanboy, but ive already stated that its CAS fault for not getting there act together, they must be giving him some benefit of the doubt, and thats why he's in the race, and while he's in the race so should we. And theres going to be the inevitable 'Contador's not doped this year, thats why he's riding sh*t' - Nothing to do with the fact that he used a lot of energy wiping the floor with everyone in the Giro, likely whilst clean. Bertie is in the race, nothing can change that now, so may as well look past it and get on with it, plenty of other dopers in this years TdF, but because they still don't win anything worth noting, we don't give them any stick...

Contador's knee aside, i think he will have something to say come stage 12 and beyond, without the use of a steak

crescent

I also think that Team Schleck is looking very strong. I think their two pronged attack in the mountains will do for the rest of the GC contenders. Evans might be in with a shout of pulling back any deficits on the individual TT but I think he may not keep up with the pure climbers in the race. Basso has been anonymous so far, but perhaps that's part of his game plan. I would like to see Sammy Sanchez get at least a podium position, he always seems to climb well and never seems to have a lot of support within his team, even less with Txurrxa (it's close enough) dropping out. I think it's the most interesting tour for many years and certainly the most open. I'm glad it was Contador who lost time on day 1, not out of any malice towards him but if it had been a reversal of fortune and he had over a minute's advantage on his rivals then the race would have been done and dusted on the first day because I doubt he would have lost that amount of time to anyone else. Maybe not the fairest of opinions but it has certainly increased the viewing pleasure I think.
Cheers

emadden

LeicesterLad wrote:

:roll: Im not going to argue for Contador again, im not even a Fanboy, but ive already stated that its CAS fault for not getting there act together, they must be giving him some benefit of the doubt, and thats why he's in the race, and while he's in the race so should we. And theres going to be the inevitable 'Contador's not doped this year, thats why he's riding sh*t' - Nothing to do with the fact that he used a lot of energy wiping the floor with everyone in the Giro, likely whilst clean. Bertie is in the race, nothing can change that now, so may as well look past it and get on with it, plenty of other dopers in this years TdF, but because they still don't win anything worth noting, we don't give them any stick...

Contador's knee aside, i think he will have something to say come stage 12 and beyond, without the use of a steak

I agree 100%

andyp

LeicesterLad wrote:

deal wrote:

Contador looking slightly human, presumably there is a big steak being rushed up from Spain right now.

:roll: Im not going to argue for Contador again, im not even a Fanboy, but ive already stated that its CAS fault for not getting there act together, they must be giving him some benefit of the doubt, and thats why he's in the race, and while he's in the race so should we. And theres going to be the inevitable 'Contador's not doped this year, thats why he's riding sh*t' - Nothing to do with the fact that he used a lot of energy wiping the floor with everyone in the Giro, likely whilst clean. Bertie is in the race, nothing can change that now, so may as well look past it and get on with it, plenty of other dopers in this years TdF, but because they still don't win anything worth noting, we don't give them any stick...

Contador's knee aside, i think he will have something to say come stage 12 and beyond, without the use of a steak

Do you really think the delay in the process is due to CAS? On what basis do you make this statement?

cogidubnus

They delay from Cas is that they have chosen to hear the case in August and not June as originally scheduled. You may say it was delayed because it took AC's team to submit the evidence but equally it shouldn't take 2 months to read it.

patchy

RichN95 wrote:

According to SBS (Aussie broadcaster) on twitter, Contador had to leave the Saxo training ride early this morning. His knee is definitely a big problem.

Sure he's not playing possum? How devious is young Alberto?

Doobz

patchy wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

According to SBS (Aussie broadcaster) on twitter, Contador had to leave the Saxo training ride early this morning. His knee is definitely a big problem.

Sure he's not playing possum? How devious is young Alberto?

RowCycle

The number of crashes have ruined the first week for me, particularly since the number of GC contenders are out.

Isn't racing but survival of the fittest.

LeicesterLad

Cogidubnus wrote:

They delay from Cas is that they have chosen to hear the case in August and not June as originally scheduled. You may say it was delayed because it took AC's team to submit the evidence but equally it shouldn't take 2 months to read it.

Cheers fella, i was going to say the exact same thing!

We could all argue about Contador untill the sun burns out, but we all have our own opinions, and whats done up to this point is done, so just let him, and all the other pro's who are equally just as bored by it (and more and more showing a bit of support for Bertie), get on with it and race. me banging on about how he should race, and others banging on about how he shouldn't race doesn't matter. He is racing, and thats that, and so are many more who quite like a piece of steak, cynical? yes, true? no doubt.