Accuweather - So wrong So often

Secteur

How can it be SO wrong, SO often?

All day yesterday, including at 2230hrs last night, it said the weather 0600-0900hrs this morning (and indeed all day), would be cloudy but sunny, dry and no chance of rain with temperatures around 15degC.

This morning, since 0600hrs it has rained torrentially - not drizzle, but heavy rain that is rattling on the roof. It's barely 9degC, and there aint no sun!

I checked at 0630hrs this morning, and now it says rain all morning.

This happens every bloody week - usually doesnt stop me getting out, but I might as well just blindfold myself and guess what the weather is for all the use internet forecast sights seem to be. It rarely seems to correlate with any significance.

Peddle Up!

The BBC local forecast is no better. I get more reliable results from looking out of the window. :?

MountainMonster

Welcome to forecasts, only a guess at what it will be judging by weather patterns. Often wrong, and disappointing.

I've almost completely stopped looking at the forecasts, planned rides based on them and 90% of the time they are wrong. Just go by what the weather really is like at the time you want to ride!

rozzer32

Yea I use BBC and that's often wrong.

Checked it Friday for the weekend and it said it would be sunny all day Saturday. Checked it Saturday morning and it said cloudy with heavy rain :?

antfly

They always get the right weather, it's just the timing and location that is wrong.

I guess you cancelled your ride to Southport. No rain here.

denzzz28

Well thats your typical British weather. very unpredictable

i wouldn't really blame forecast, after all its just a forecast. forecast is never really 100% (not even 70% IMO) accurate regardless of latest technology. I dont rely on forecast 1-2 days before the actual day, 12 hours before the day is mostly accurate (ish) in my experience.

dont rely on forecast, its just there to give you an idea. best thing is to be prepared when you riding.

mattward1979

I cross reference the BBC and The Weather Channel application on my android.

Usually accurate enough between them that I can avoid torrential downpours, although today I got rained on despite both saying cloud/sun

Secteur

antfly wrote:

I guess you cancelled your ride to Southport. No rain here.

Yes - it looked dodgy as I set off with very heavy looking clouds and spits of rain. A technical problem made me head back for home after just 2 miles. 20 mins later it was a torrential downpour that lasted best part of a couple of hours on-and-off. With that rain, even in wets it wouldn't have been safe.

Might do a small local loop this evening if it clears up a bit, otherwise will let my legs enjoy a day off!

P_Tucker

This just in: predicting the future of something really complex is hard. More at 11, although there's only a 40% chance of that.

briantrumpet

I use three websites that do a pretty good job between them for predicting far enough ahead for a longish ride.

The first one is the Met Office - you might have heard of them.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
They don't always get it right, but given Britain's complicated weather systems, it's remarkable how right they do get it a lot of the time. You do need to keep a regular eye on the way forecasts change for the same time to see how much confidence the Met Office have in their forecasts. It's annoying that they don't publish the probabilities with the forecasts, but when they polled the general public, they said they didn't want that feature. (The Met Office does do percentage probability predictions, they just don't publish them.) Just goes to show that the general public are fools.

The second is Rain Today
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Fifteen-minute rainfall radar, right up to the most recent quarter-hour. This often gives you a good idea of whether showers (or longer periods of rain) are heading your way.

The third is wind data from XC Weather:
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/
Also gives you the latest temperature data for airfields etc.

Using these three I haven't got properly caught out in a long while.

Garz

I use two of them listed brian, but thanks for the heads up on the rain today site - much appreciated!

LeicesterLad

The local rag reported last week something along the lines of 'bank holiday wash out, but summer starts tomorrow', it went on to say that in Leicestershire they were expecting 3 days of wet weather for the next 2 months, an average june temp of 28 degrees, reaching 30 end of june, july. So far average temperature of 15, some rain, and a headwind (thats lasted about a month now) that means i'd rather chew the ends of my own fingers off than ride the last 10 miles of todays ride again. As for BBC, you can look one hour and it says sunny 24 degrees, hour later, pissing it down 13 degrees. :evil:

Bobbinogs

I echo the comments above about looking out of the window on the day for the best forecast although that won't help on a long ride.

The BBC just get their raw data from the met office and don't update the websites that often. In fact most websites get their info from the met office. The problem is that no one is that good at predicting actual weather for specific areas.

I eagerly watched the weather forecast for Wells at the w/e, it changed every few hours and varied greatly (from 22 deg, full sun to 12 deg, torrential rain to light rain and then showers). Turned out to be cold with heavy rain which cleared to be light cloud and warm. Luckily, I took a selection of clothes and ended up wearing a few layers with a pacamac at the start which went in a pocket halfway round. Moral of the story: wear layers, be prepared, ride whatever the weather... Oh, and get it completely wrong sometimes