Who are the favorites for the TDF?
Someone at work is asking because I ride a road bike to work and wear lycra.
I haven't got a clue beyond one of the Schleck's and Contador if he's riding it (is he? not many people seem to try to win the Giro and the Tour in one year anymore.)
I haven't got a clue beyond one of the Schleck's and Contador if he's riding it (is he? not many people seem to try to win the Giro and the Tour in one year anymore.)
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The odds for the Tour de France overall (without Contador - who would be favourite, but is unsure to ride due to his positive test last year in the Tour and the subsequent fallout)
Andy Schleck 5/8
Ivan Basso 11/1
Frank Schleck 11/1
Cadel Evans 11/1
Robert Gesink 14/1
Samuel Sanchez 18/1
Alexandre Vinokourov 33/1
Bradley Wiggins 40/1
Tony Martin 50/1
Vincenzo Nibali 50/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 50/1 J
anez Brajkovic 50/1
Andreas Kloden 50/10 -
Thanks.
On the face of it it doesn't look like it's going to be close. Unless the bookies are wrong.<a><img></a>0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:The odds for the Tour de France overall (without Contador - who would be favourite, but is unsure to ride due to his positive test last year in the Tour and the subsequent fallout)
Andy Schleck 5/8
Ivan Basso 11/1
Frank Schleck 11/1
Cadel Evans 11/1
Robert Gesink 14/1
Samuel Sanchez 18/1
Alexandre Vinokourov 33/1
Bradley Wiggins 40/1
Tony Martin 50/1
Vincenzo Nibali 50/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 50/1 J
anez Brajkovic 50/1
Andreas Kloden 50/1
When you take Contador out, it doesn't look like a strong tour. A lot of riders past their best.
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I'd still have a punt on Basso.0
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PeteinSQ wrote:Thanks.
On the face of it it doesn't look like it's going to be close. Unless the bookies are wrong.
The odds the bookies come up with are mainly influenced by the amount of money being placed on individual riders and/or the opinion of their expert.
Looking at that list Gesink's odds seem high given his track record, i.e. he's yet to finish the Tour, whilst Jurgen Van Den Broeck looks good value seeing as he finished 5th last year and has scope to improve.0 -
andyp wrote:PeteinSQ wrote:Thanks.
On the face of it it doesn't look like it's going to be close. Unless the bookies are wrong.
The odds the bookies come up with are mainly influenced by the amount of money being placed on individual riders and/or the opinion of their expert.
Looking at that list Gesink's odds seem high given his track record, i.e. he's yet to finish the Tour, whilst Jurgen Van Den Broeck looks good value seeing as he finished 5th last year and has scope to improve.
I don't think they're "mainly influenced" I think the likelihood of someone winning is the main influence, closely followed by where the money is going. There's obviousy over-rounding, but it's the best way to get a feel of who is favourite at a glance.0 -
andyp wrote:
Looking at that list Gesink's odds seem high given his track record, i.e. he's yet to finish the Tour, whilst Jurgen Van Den Broeck looks good value seeing as he finished 5th last year and has scope to improve.
Gesink was 6th last year (including Contador) and was second best young rider. Still 2.5 minutes behind VDB although Gesink has done well in some tt's. VDB's odds do seem a bit high, especially with numbers 1 and 3 from last not riding (Evans and Basso are though). Without wanting to send a thread down that route, maybe his 8 in the bio-passport list is coming into play?0 -
Cumulonimbus wrote:andyp wrote:
Looking at that list Gesink's odds seem high given his track record, i.e. he's yet to finish the Tour, whilst Jurgen Van Den Broeck looks good value seeing as he finished 5th last year and has scope to improve.
Gesink was 6th last year (including Contador) and was second best young rider. Still 2.5 minutes behind VDB although Gesink has done well in some tt's. VDB's odds do seem a bit high, especially with numbers 1 and 3 from last not riding (Evans and Basso are though). Without wanting to send a thread down that route, maybe his 8 in the bio-passport list is coming into play?
It'll be more to do with being at least 2 and a half minutes ahead of Gesink.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Cumulonimbus wrote:andyp wrote:
Looking at that list Gesink's odds seem high given his track record, i.e. he's yet to finish the Tour, whilst Jurgen Van Den Broeck looks good value seeing as he finished 5th last year and has scope to improve.
Gesink was 6th last year (including Contador) and was second best young rider. Still 2.5 minutes behind VDB although Gesink has done well in some tt's. VDB's odds do seem a bit high, especially with numbers 1 and 3 from last not riding (Evans and Basso are though). Without wanting to send a thread down that route, maybe his 8 in the bio-passport list is coming into play?
It'll be more to do with being at least 2 and a half minutes ahead of Gesink.
?
Gesink 14/1
VDB 50/1
You think that is down to VDB being 2.5 minutes ahead of Gesink last year? Surely if that was the main factor then VDB would be at shorter odds than Gesink?0 -
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Nibs at longer odds than Wiggo?
I think the Nibster is well worth a tenner at those odds?0 -
Yellow Peril wrote:Nibs at longer odds than Wiggo?
I think the Nibster is well worth a tenner at those odds?
He probably would be if he was doing the Tour....Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0 -
iainf72 wrote:Yellow Peril wrote:Nibs at longer odds than Wiggo?
I think the Nibster is well worth a tenner at those odds?
He probably would be if he was doing the Tour....
...in which case... I can't believe that Wiggo's odds are so long! They're only marginally shorter than a bloke who's not even taking part! Got to be worth a pound each way on the Wigster etc.0 -
Basso at 11/1 is by far the best bet from that list.0
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Frank at 11/1. Really?? I suppose people may back him each way but no chance of the win with Andy in the race.0
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Gesink was working for Menchov last year. This year Rabo will be all for him.
Without Contador it looks like the 2008 Tour. Some rank outsider could do a Sastre.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:I don't think they're "mainly influenced" I think the likelihood of someone winning is the main influence, closely followed by where the money is going. There's obviousy over-rounding, but it's the best way to get a feel of who is favourite at a glance.
Assuming it's a bookie and not the bloke down the pub (see Exchanges) it should be the case that the opening prices are the result of the former, and as the bets are placed it becomes entirely the latter. A bookie doesn't care how likely Andy Schleck is to win, if no one backs him his odds will lengthen, whilst those of the field will shorten. Normally the weight of money has knowledge behind it so the opening odds (which are highly researched, bookies are not mugs) often are close to the starting prices.
As for Wiggins odds they'll be distorted by him being British, England's football odds never reflect their chance, the reflect the overweight of money on them by delusion fans (see self :? ).0 -
Sanchez (Sanu) and Tony Martin are interesting at 18 and 50. I see Sanchez as one of those guys that's always thereabouts but never threatens to win. Tony Martin on the other hand as a guy on the way up could surprise people and win. I know he won't have much in the way of team support, but he can climb and TT so what's not to like about him at almost 3 times Sanchez's price.0
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"one day whilst walking on the stair, I met a man who wasn't there" - that'll be Menchov then. He has an uncanny knack of being invisible, but always high on GC, apart from when he is falling off.
I hope G can capitalise on his days in white last year and his strong spring classics showing. I don't expect him to win but I would like to see a top ten from him. Think he has a bit of class about him that a lot of other riders don't have.0 -
yourpaceormine wrote:"one day whilst walking on the stair, I met a man who wasn't there" - that'll be Menchov then. He has an uncanny knack of being invisible, but always high on GC, apart from when he is falling off.
I hope G can capitalise on his days in white last year and his strong spring classics showing. I don't expect him to win but I would like to see a top ten from him. Think he has a bit of class about him that a lot of other riders don't have.
Top 10 on GC? I think you'll be disappointed as he hasn't shown any signs of being able to limit his losses in the mountains so far.0 -
Not yet, but hopefully he'll have a week in white.
I just can't see Andy winning this year...........could be wrong of course, but, but.......
I'm thinking it'll be someone we've not really thought of yet. Like a Sastre.
It's making PTP most difficult.0 -
That's not such a bad thing - several of the Tours of the last 35 years have been more interesting because the top riders have been past their best and the next generation not yet up to it.TheStone wrote:... When you take Contador out, it doesn't look like a strong tour. A lot of riders past their best.
Why aren't Kreuziger and Rodriguez listed in the betting? What chance Ricco can still take part? Not that I'd tip him, but he would add an element.0 -
Ricco will never be allowed back into the Tour.
I hope.0
