Philippe Gilbert Future Tour de France Champion

climber888
climber888 Posts: 12
edited May 2011 in Pro race
Hey Everyone

I've been wondering lately after philipe gilberts amazing show of force in the last couple of weeks. Why couldn't he win the tour de france one day. I mean he can beat the best climbers in the world up 2km climbs with steep gradients, so why can't he beat them in the longer mountains of France. I believe if he really committed himself that he could do it. What is your opinion?

my blog- http://goldcoastcycling.blogspot.com/
my blog- http://goldcoastcycling.blogspot.com/

Comments

  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    No chance IMO.

    Bettini and Rebellin (tooled up) could do the same and we'd never speak of them as possible grand tour winners.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • squired
    squired Posts: 1,153
    Bradley Wiggins managed 4th, so I wouldn't be surprised if Gilbert could get a top 10 if he trained specifically and had a go. However, why give up wins in big one day races for a top 10 or top 20 in a grand tour?
  • Kléber
    Kléber Posts: 6,842
    He's done OK in the Vuelta, a top-10 in the TT in the third week I remember, a sign he can recover and also do a TT when he needs to.

    But Gilbert's trick is the killer attack, backed up by a powerful sprint too. I can't see him coping with the changes in rhythm on a Pyreneean climb.

    If he wanted maybe he could take the Tour of Switzerland or another decent stage race. But the Tour is probably beyond him.
  • pedro118118
    pedro118118 Posts: 1,102
    3-week stage races are a different kettle of fish to hilly one-day races (at which, we all agree, he reigns surpreme). In simple terms, surely he's too heavy?
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,462
    pedro118118 wrote:
    3-week stage races are a different kettle of fish to hilly one-day races (at which, we all agree, he reigns surpreme). In simple terms, surely he's too heavy?

    He's lighter than Andy Schleck (by a kilo) apparently.

    He's not a natural stage racer, by which I mean he's never demonstrated that day to day recovery that is a prerequisite to prosper in GTs.

    Why is it that after every spring a thread appears which asks if the dominant rider of the period could win the Tour? We've had it for Boonen, Cancellara and now Gilbert.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Merckx mumbled something similar, resplendent in a QS top and fresh sweat astride a bike post LBL if I remember correctly.

    The press seemed quick to knock that one out of the court. They don't want their #1 classics man to go AWOL!
    _
  • climber888
    climber888 Posts: 12
    do you think philipe gilbert would rather target the tour de france over all the one day classics in the 1st place
    my blog- http://goldcoastcycling.blogspot.com/
  • pedro118118
    pedro118118 Posts: 1,102
    andyp wrote:
    pedro118118 wrote:
    3-week stage races are a different kettle of fish to hilly one-day races (at which, we all agree, he reigns surpreme). In simple terms, surely he's too heavy?

    He's lighter than Andy Schleck (by a kilo) apparently.

    He's not a natural stage racer, by which I mean he's never demonstrated that day to day recovery that is a prerequisite to prosper in GTs.

    Why is it that after every spring a thread appears which asks if the dominant rider of the period could win the Tour? We've had it for Boonen, Cancellara and now Gilbert.

    According to respective websites, Pip is 72kg and SchleckA is is 68kg.
    But more importantly, SchleckA is an efficient diesel engine with limited change of pace, whereas, Pip is a more thirsty Petrol Turbo.........
  • Tom Butcher
    Tom Butcher Posts: 3,830
    Don't think he could do it, don't think he'd even risk trying to do it - but I'd love to see him have a go.
    it's a hard life if you don't weaken.
  • shinyhelmut
    shinyhelmut Posts: 1,364
    Why give up being the top single day classic rider for an outside shot at a GT podium?

    Maybe he could make top ten in the tour but there is very little incentive for him to find out.
  • Dgh
    Dgh Posts: 180
    No. Has shown no sign of being a stage racer. Wiggins had shown no sign of being able to win a classic.

    Would anyone swap being the number 1 classics rider for an outside chance of a top 10 in the Tour?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Dgh wrote:
    Would anyone swap being the number 1 classics rider for an outside chance of a top 10 in the Tour?

    Cunego would.
    _
  • OffTheBackAdam
    OffTheBackAdam Posts: 1,869
    He's no more able to win the TdF than Spartacus is!
    A spell in yellow, yes, quite possible if he gets into a suitable break on a hilly stage, but he wouldn't be able to hold the real climbers over a 3 col stage.
    Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.
  • eh
    eh Posts: 4,854
    He could get a top 10 at the Vuelta maybe, Bartoli did once I believe, but the GIro or TDF not a chance.
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Bartoli and Rebellin, to some degree similar riders did have a go at GC riding, but didn't really pull that off.
    The thing is that an explosive hilly classics rider like Gilbert lacks both a killer TT and the high mountain climbing. If he wants to broaden his repertoire, winning Vlaanderen is much more feasible than a top-5 GC placing in the TdF.
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    Maybe he'll have a crack at the grand tours after he wins MSR, Flanders, Roubaix and the Worlds.
  • pedro118118
    pedro118118 Posts: 1,102
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Dgh wrote:
    Would anyone swap being the number 1 classics rider for an outside chance of a top 10 in the Tour?

    Cunego would.

    Says who?
    Cunego has long since dumpted his GT ambitions in favour of stage wins and one-day races.
    This despite being a former Giro winner.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Firstly I don't think he can win a GT, but if he lost some weight and focussed hard on one I think he might be able to go top 10 or even top 5.

    You have to ask whether it would ever be worth the risk. In a GT one bad day will ruin your race and if that all you're focussed on that will ruin your season. In his current classics guise if he has a bad day for say MSR he still has E3, Dwars, Flanders, Liege, Amstel and Fleche to get a result (that's forgetting Roubaix which he may have a go at one day). Even if his spring season is a wash out, he still has the autumn classics and the worlds to go for.

    If in 3 years time he has won all the major classics (quite likely given this years results!) then maybe he might risk devoting a season to target a GT, but it would be a massive risk for him and more importantly a massive risk for his sponsors. The other thing is that as he's not considered a GT threat at the moment he has a very good chance of winning stages in a GT as he did in the Vuleta last year. If he's a GT threat then he would be chased down much harder if he tried one of his trademark late attacks.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • pedro118118
    pedro118118 Posts: 1,102
    Physiology aside, I think he's a bit too impetuous. GTs are a bit of a game of poker, where effort is carefully moderated whereaver possible and a low-risk approach often pays off over 3 long weeks. Powers of recovery and talent agains the clock are also pre-requisites and Pip's capacity in both these areas are relatively untested.

    In any case, I just don't see it as worth the risk, given his stellar talent in the classics.

    Why shift focus away from highly prestigious races, where he is top-dog to GTs, where he may (or may not) achieve a top-10 placing. Just doesn't make sense to me.
  • Ron Stuart
    Ron Stuart Posts: 1,242
    No
  • plowmar
    plowmar Posts: 1,032
    I've said no but there again he cannot improve on what he has done this year with the triple so if he put his body on the line, lost the weight who knows what he could achieve.

    We were all surprised at Wiggins' performance, weren't we :?:
  • Ron Stuart
    Ron Stuart Posts: 1,242
    plowmar wrote:
    I've said no but there again he cannot improve on what he has done this year with the triple so if he put his body on the line, lost the weight who knows what he could achieve.

    We were all surprised at Wiggins' performance, weren't we :?:

    Gilbert would be in favor of the first past the post competitions (Non to AV) because as you know you can win the TDF without winning a race (average lowest time).

    Who's to say Philippe can't win the worlds for instance if there were a power climb near or at the finish?

    Philippe is 29 years of age 5'-10", around 67kg and peak age for strength. Do we know his % body fat? I would suggest that if he lost more weight he would also lose some of that raw power he demonstrated so well in this seasons classics. The long mountain stages and machine like TT's are not what this man's about, however he could possibly win a lumpy 5 day tour such as the Tour of the Algarve where I saw him in action this year winning the first stage but then faded after.

    I was surprised with Wiggins’s 2009 TDF but on reflection his 4th was more to do with losing body fat to help him get round. He had ideal first stages to cement a good start to the 2009 Tour. What's more the actual 2009 parcours he could manage and as he maintained a grip near the top of the leader board he hung in and did a fantastic job getting a 4th.
    Unfortunately 2010 was reality check, the parcours were more mountains than 2009, steeper gradient sections and with the burden of expectation he suffered.
    Wiggins’s now treat's the road racing in his words "as something to do till the Olympics". He I must say apart from the odd good prologue has disappointed me a lot since 2009 (No Hunger) might be a by product of so much success on the track.

    So to sum up Philippe Gilbert, for him to try and win a TDF he might throw the baby out with the bath water. :wink:
  • Gingerflash
    Gingerflash Posts: 239
    "why can't he beat them in the longer mountains of France"

    Because you can't power your way up the Tourmalet in 53x15.

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