Can Cav win a cobbled classic?

inkyfingers

Cav has stated (as he has before) that one day he'd like to focus on winning Roubaix and or Flanders. My question is, do people think he's got what it takes to do one or both of these?

My personal opinion is that he would have a good shout in Paris Roubaix with a strong team and some clever riding, but I think the climbs in Flanders would rule him out due to the steepness and sheer quantity (not like in MSR where he just has to hold on on three longer but shallower climbs).

Here is the article...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendi ... e-classics

finchy

inkyfingers wrote:

Cav has stated (as he has before) that one day he'd like to focus on winning Roubaix and or Flanders. My question is, do people think he's got what it takes to do one or both of these?

My personal opinion is that he would have a good shout in Paris Roubaix with a strong team and some clever riding, but I think the climbs in Flanders would rule him out due to the steepness and sheer quantity (not like in MSR where he just has to hold on on three longer but shallower climbs).

Here is the article...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendi ... e-classics

If my memory serves me right he absolutely ripped up the hills in G-W 2009.

rick_chasey

I don't think he's heavy enough for Roubaix.

rick_chasey

Nor do I think he's powerful enough actually.

We've all waxed lyrical about his position when sprinting, but that's not much use on 3km of cobbles repeadtedly, esp if a Canc or Boonen type is lighting it up.

Pross

The hills in Flanders always used to be classed as "sprinters" hills. I think in time he could eveolve into the sort of rider who could do well at Flanders. For some reason, although the course is flat, Roubaix has never really been a sprinters race whereas Flanders has been won many times by sprinters albeit more power sprinters than out and out speed sprinters.

andyp

If we count Gent-Wevelgem as a cobbled classic then the answer to the original question is yes.

I can't see him ever winning Flanders or Roubaix, he's just not powerful enough. That said, I didn't think he'd ever win Milan-San Remo so wouldn't right him off completely.

rick_chasey

Pross wrote:

The hills in Flanders always used to be classed as "sprinters" hills. I think in time he could eveolve into the sort of rider who could do well at Flanders. For some reason, although the course is flat, Roubaix has never really been a sprinters race whereas Flanders has been won many times by sprinters albeit more power sprinters than out and out speed sprinters.

Only the more well rounded sprinters. Cippo or McEwen found Flanders too tough.

He does seem on the small side for a classics winner. Who was the last guy to win either one who was his size?

andyp

Argentin? Flanders winner in 1990.

andyp

Maybe Bartoli, but he had power in spades.

Anonymous

There's only one way to find out! Wait until he tries...

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

He does seem on the small side for a classics winner. Who was the last guy to win either one who was his size?

Mark Cavendish: 1.75m, 69kg
Peter van Petegem: 1.76m, 70kg

(Stats from Wiki)

O'Grady's no giant either (1.76/73). Nor is Steffan Wesemann (1.73/72).

LangerDan

RichN95 wrote:

Mark Cavendish: 1.75m, 69kg

Pro cycling has been good to Cav - he's grown two inches taller since 2008.

http://www.velobios.com/riders.highroad ... endish.htm
"Height: 5'7" (1.70m)

Perhaps he gets Mark Renshaw to lift him up when he's being measured.

I don't believe his size or power are an obstacle to success in Flanders or Roubaix. His lack of experience in the cobbled sh!tfights that usually preceed the final selection might be a bigger issue - at least for the next couple of years.

ozzzyosborn206

i wouldn't write him off, i think the commonwealths made him realise what it is like to actually race again rather than try to sit in and get to the end fresh as possible and now he wants that back. Remember in a few years when he has done a few more he will have some good strong guys working for him in Flanders and Roubix if they think he has a chnce

finchy

LangerDan wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Mark Cavendish: 1.75m, 69kg

Pro cycling has been good to Cav - he's grown two inches taller since 2008.

http://www.velobios.com/riders.highroad ... endish.htm
"Height: 5'7" (1.70m)

Perhaps he gets Mark Renshaw to lift him up when he's being measured.

L'equipe has him down as 1.75

wicked

I think his wanting to win a cobbled classic is highly comendable IMO. It will probably get lots of criticism from some quarters on this and certain other forums but it shows he wants to race.
He also seems very keen to go there and work for others as a thank you for all the work they give him. Again comendable.
Will he win one? Who knows, but I would never write him off and will certainly enjoy watching him try.

rick_chasey

I am going to stick my neck out and say that he'll do a Zabel - i.e. a reasonable job, but won't win one.

all show no go

I think Cav can do it.

Didn't he say in one of the current monthly mags that he wants to rediscover the art of being a racer once again? At the Commonwealth Games he felt that he'd kinda lost something when it comes to race-craft.

As for size and weight, Roger Hammond is hardly a giant and he seems to do okay over the cobbles. Of course Hammond's skills come from his 'cross background but I reckon Cavendish's years spent on the boards riding Madison will put him in good stead for position juggling and all-round toughness beyond that of sprinting over the last 300m of a road race.

I applaud him for wanting to diversify and have every confidence in him succeeding.

rick_chasey

As I've said before on the forum., the O'Grady win is an anomaly and an especially unusual edition of Paris Roubaix.

The best riders in Roubaix recently are the bigger guys.



Even Pozzato is 6ft.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

The best riders in Roubaix recently are the bigger guys.

That might be something of a 'chicken & egg' type situation though (in these days of specialization).

Do the big guys succeed in the cobbled classics because size really does matter?

Or do they succeed because they focus on these races as, due to their relatively flat parcours, they give them their best chance of big wins?

After all smaller guys like Evans, Valverde, Menchov (all strong TTers) who might do well, have never turned up, their attentions on other races.

BrianS

YES!

Tusher

Psychologically, if Cav says he'll achieve a goal, then he'll do it.

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The best riders in Roubaix recently are the bigger guys.

That might be something of a 'chicken & egg' type situation though (in these days of specialization).

Do the big guys succeed in the cobbled classics because size really does matter?

Or do they succeed because they focus on these races as, due to their relatively flat parcours, they give them their best chance of big wins?

After all smaller guys like Evans, Valverde, Menchov (all strong TTers) who might do well, have never turned up, their attentions on other races.

Menchov? :P

It could well be.

I just can't see Cav ripping it up on the cobbles.

We know he can manage easily during the crescendo of effort for a sprint finish, but we have no evidence that he can put in really big PR (and flanders to a lesser extent) style efforts again and again.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

We know he can manage easily during the crescendo of effort for a sprint finish, but we have no evidence that he can put in really big PR (and flanders to a lesser extent) style efforts again and again.

There's the two madison world championships. Different, of course, but requires repeated big efforts.

Really, we can't know until he tries it, but I've always thought P-R might quite suit him.

nick hanson

[quote="Rick ChaseyHe does seem on the small side for a classics winner. [/quote]
Thought he'd won MSR :?:

Monty Dog

Whilst being a heavier rider helps on cobbles, riding well is as much about all-over strength - particularly the arms and shoulders. Sprinters develop good upper body strength and therefore this should serve him well on the pave - Roger Hammond is smaller than Cav and he leaves many bigger riders in his wake.

cal_stewart

iirc didn't he finish the cobbled stage of the tour towards the front. I'm thinking G Thomas for this coming year PR.

rick_chasey

Cal_Stewart wrote:

iirc didn't he finish the cobbled stage of the tour towards the front. I'm thinking G Thomas for this coming year PR.

Thomas would be doing well if he finished infront of someone like Hoste at Roubaix.

Funny how we're all talking Roubaix. It's an easier one to predict.

Thing is, we haven't had many opportunities to see Cav 'koers', really racing, instead of sitting in the peleton. The way he sprints and positions himself indicates he'd probably be ok, but the proper classics racecraft, the like that cippo describes in that machismo article, is a different kettle of fish.

pedro118118

These races are a war of attrition, where it tends to come down to a select group, who have raced smartly and have the best legs. And luck. Doesn't really sound like Cav's cup-of-tea to me, but fair play to him for having such ambition. I remember seeing him struggling along in last place at ToF last year and whilst he crossed the finish line, he was a DNF (I may be wrong). This would suggest he has a long way to go.