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Farrar/Hushovd vs Cavendish/Renshaw

paulcuthbertpaulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
edited November 2010 in Pro race
Hushovd has promised to help Farrar win the Green jersey at the Tour next year. Do you think the Hushovd/Farrar combination can ever beat the Renshaw/Cavendish lead-out man team?

Discuss.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/hushovd-wants-to-help-farrar-take-tour-de-france-green-jersey

Personally I think Cavendish will win Green next year. He is still young and is maturing as a rider, and it's likely that he can only get better and better. Still, it's going to be a fascinating contest next year by the looks of it!

Posts

  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,780 Lives Here
    Sounds like a big trade off to me.

    Hushovd gets 100% support for any one day race he wants (and possibly some of the uphill finishes in the Tour, where neither Farrar nor Cav will be in the hunt) and in return, he does a little lead out for Farrar.

    It'll be a shame to see the World Champ working for someone else, but, alas, that's the Tour - bigger than anything else by miles.
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,172
    Farrar's not quick enough in an out and out sprint but with the new points system and with there being a few uphill finishes Thor's guidance may be a big benefit as they are the ways he has picked up points himself. If Cav is prepared to go for the intermediate sprints then I think he'll win green but I've got a hunch he'll hold back and go for stage wins.
  • nick hansonnick hanson Posts: 1,655
    Well,neither of them consistently beat Cav,& with next years tour having one mid stage sprint,carrying points to the green jersey,as well as the end of each stage,It could well fall into Cav's hands.
    Just a thought,but,I wonder if HTC might send Renshaw to hoover up the mid stage sprint (carries half the points of a stage finish) & save Cav for the big points at the end?
    so many cols,so little time!
  • finchyfinchy Posts: 6,889
    Well,neither of them consistently beat Cav,& with next years tour having one mid stage sprint,carrying points to the green jersey,as well as the end of each stage,It could well fall into Cav's hands.
    Just a thought,but,I wonder if HTC might send Renshaw to hoover up the mid stage sprint (carries half the points of a stage finish) & save Cav for the big points at the end?

    Well seeing as Cav can win sprints with such ease, I imagine he'll just put in a sprint at 80% power mid-stage and still go onto to win at the end.
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,774
    It's going to be tactical, isn't it?

    You'll still have the breaks out hoovering up some of the points. So there will be less points available at the sprint for the guys who will contest the end. Will HTC want to control things earlier in the race?

    I'm not sure it will favour Cavendish. I've not seen a breakdown of the points yet so can't do the math.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • frenchfighterfrenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Discuss.
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  • mididoctorsmididoctors Posts: 7,107
    why wouldn't you do it?

    makes a lot of sense to me
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • plectrumplectrum Posts: 225
    When will we see each last km profile and route profile, the tour website seems not to have them showing until JUNE!!!

    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.
  • PokerfacePokerface Posts: 8,640
    plectrum wrote:
    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.


    Because you can't realistically have two top sprinters competing against each other on the same team and Farrar is the better speed man.
  • Rolf Aldag on the latest RP makes a good point, that it depends where they place the mid stage sprint on each stage.

    If it's after a tough climb, Farrar is more likely to be in the hunt than Cav. A couple of missed opportunities there when a rival gets full points could spell disaster.
    My Men 2020 - Mark Cavendish, Ben Swift, Fernando Gaviria, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Vincenzo Nibali, Geraint Thomas.
  • ju5t1nju5t1n Posts: 2,028
    Pokerface wrote:
    plectrum wrote:
    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.


    Because you can't realistically have two top sprinters competing against each other on the same team and Farrar is the better speed man.
    But Hushovd has won it twice before
  • No_Ta_DoctorNo_Ta_Doctor Posts: 9,470
    Pokerface wrote:
    plectrum wrote:
    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.


    Because you can't realistically have two top sprinters competing against each other on the same team and Farrar is the better speed man.

    I don't quite buy that. Put Farrar in for the stage wins and Hushovd to mop up the remaining points. Hushovd rides for the intermediate sprints and is launched from the leadout with Farrar to take a few second places and maybe a stage or two. Team orders place Farrar on his wheel and he's not allowed to go for it until Farrar makes his move. If he can still outsprint Farrar while giving him that advantage then fair play to him, otherwise he just picks up the scraps. He'll be part lead-out part sprinter (will obviously need someone ahead of him as well). Getting three bikes lined up will be tricky, but not impossible, and the default fall-back if they couldn't do it would be that Hushovd leads out for Farrar.

    This years points jersey showed more clearly than ever that green isn't won by winning stages but by finishing consistently. If Hushovd can pick up points while helping Farrar's lead out then why not let him go for green?
    “Road racing was over and the UCI had banned my riding positions on the track, so it was like ‘Jings, crivvens, help ma Boab, what do I do now? I know, I’ll go away and be depressed for 10 years’.”

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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,780 Lives Here
    Me no like a rainbow jersey in a leadout....
  • hammeritehammerite Posts: 3,408
    What do Garmin do about their annual rider who is lurking surprisingly close to the top of the GC? Like VDV, Wiggo, Hesjedal have in the past few years - do they just ride for themselves?
  • I have not studied the profiles in great detail, but if there are lumpy stages with points on offer, wouldn't Thor be a better bet than Tyler to get the mid-stage sprint?

    He has been on long breaks in the last two tours trying to hoover up points during stages you wouldn't usually expect him to excel on.
  • PokerfacePokerface Posts: 8,640
    Pokerface wrote:
    plectrum wrote:
    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.


    Because you can't realistically have two top sprinters competing against each other on the same team and Farrar is the better speed man.

    I don't quite buy that. Put Farrar in for the stage wins and Hushovd to mop up the remaining points. Hushovd rides for the intermediate sprints and is launched from the leadout with Farrar to take a few second places and maybe a stage or two. Team orders place Farrar on his wheel and he's not allowed to go for it until Farrar makes his move. If he can still outsprint Farrar while giving him that advantage then fair play to him, otherwise he just picks up the scraps. He'll be part lead-out part sprinter (will obviously need someone ahead of him as well). Getting three bikes lined up will be tricky, but not impossible, and the default fall-back if they couldn't do it would be that Hushovd leads out for Farrar.

    This years points jersey showed more clearly than ever that green isn't won by winning stages but by finishing consistently. If Hushovd can pick up points while helping Farrar's lead out then why not let him go for green?



    You're assuming that Cav will never pick up any intermediate points and that Farrar can beat Cav for stage wins. Neither is likely to happen.

    You simply can't have two sprinters on the same team competing for the same pool of points and expect one of them to take Green. Unless both of them were capable of winning sprints without the help of the other - and they could be guaranteed to mop up 1st and 2nd every time.

    Plus - a good lead out man will burn out well before the finish and *should* finish well out of the points.


    It's not about getting stage wins for Farrar and Green for Thor. It's about getting stage wins AND Green for Farrar.
  • dougzzdougzz Posts: 1,833
    The Jerseys seem less and less important to me. The KOM was a bit sus last year, and the Green is becoming more of an artificial jersey. Why not have a Blue jersey for the rider that passes the 100km mark 23rd, unless it's raining in which case it would be the 106km mark in 47th? Offering big points in intermediate sprints creates a competition of almost random quality. Maybe it's because I'm a bit of a Cav fanboy and feel this is being staged to deny the best finishing sprinter the jersey, but it seems an odd competition rewarding a rider doing a very specific thing well, with not regard to actually winning a stage or riding for GC. I'm not totally sold on the guys who charge off to mop up points and sprints to then just give up and ride only to finish that day, only to repeat the process over and over. Maybe stage wins are their own reward, and so a jersey for accumulating them is not necessary.
  • No_Ta_DoctorNo_Ta_Doctor Posts: 9,470
    Pokerface wrote:
    Pokerface wrote:
    plectrum wrote:
    I do not understand why Hushvold would want to not try for another Green jersey himself.


    Because you can't realistically have two top sprinters competing against each other on the same team and Farrar is the better speed man.

    I don't quite buy that. Put Farrar in for the stage wins and Hushovd to mop up the remaining points. Hushovd rides for the intermediate sprints and is launched from the leadout with Farrar to take a few second places and maybe a stage or two. Team orders place Farrar on his wheel and he's not allowed to go for it until Farrar makes his move. If he can still outsprint Farrar while giving him that advantage then fair play to him, otherwise he just picks up the scraps. He'll be part lead-out part sprinter (will obviously need someone ahead of him as well). Getting three bikes lined up will be tricky, but not impossible, and the default fall-back if they couldn't do it would be that Hushovd leads out for Farrar.

    This years points jersey showed more clearly than ever that green isn't won by winning stages but by finishing consistently. If Hushovd can pick up points while helping Farrar's lead out then why not let him go for green?



    You're assuming that Cav will never pick up any intermediate points and that Farrar can beat Cav for stage wins. Neither is likely to happen.

    You simply can't have two sprinters on the same team competing for the same pool of points and expect one of them to take Green. Unless both of them were capable of winning sprints without the help of the other - and they could be guaranteed to mop up 1st and 2nd every time.

    Plus - a good lead out man will burn out well before the finish and *should* finish well out of the points.


    It's not about getting stage wins for Farrar and Green for Thor. It's about getting stage wins AND Green for Farrar.

    To be honest I can't see past Cav for the stage wins anyway, and if he picks up the intermediates a couple of times the green is his. If he's on form then everyone else is just scrapping after his leftovers.

    The argument that the two sprinters would split points only holds if they're racing each other. If Hushovds job is to mop up whatever Farrar can't take it's a different scenario. If we assumed that Farrar was only going for wins then whenever he doesn't look like taking the line first Hushovd does whatever he can and Farrar drops off.

    The main problem I see with my tactic would be trying to get a decent leadout for the pair of them.

    Oh b******* to it, it was a completely stupid idea that could never work, You're right.

    *hangs head in shame*
    “Road racing was over and the UCI had banned my riding positions on the track, so it was like ‘Jings, crivvens, help ma Boab, what do I do now? I know, I’ll go away and be depressed for 10 years’.”

    @DrHeadgear

    The Vikings are coming!
  • i thought alot of the thor riding for tyler was just down to Thor wanting to win a classic and so will be targetting that and so will help farrar at the tour?
  • CumulonimbusCumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    dougzz wrote:
    The Jerseys seem less and less important to me. The KOM was a bit sus last year, and the Green is becoming more of an artificial jersey. Why not have a Blue jersey for the rider that passes the 100km mark 23rd, unless it's raining in which case it would be the 106km mark in 47th? Offering big points in intermediate sprints creates a competition of almost random quality. Maybe it's because I'm a bit of a Cav fanboy and feel this is being staged to deny the best finishing sprinter the jersey, but it seems an odd competition rewarding a rider doing a very specific thing well, with not regard to actually winning a stage or riding for GC. I'm not totally sold on the guys who charge off to mop up points and sprints to then just give up and ride only to finish that day, only to repeat the process over and over. Maybe stage wins are their own reward, and so a jersey for accumulating them is not necessary.

    They wouldnt be able to just soft-pedal to the finish though. Assuming someone gets away in a break of four (fairly typical number) then if they take the intermediate sprint and Cav finishes fifth but at the finish Cav wins the stage and takes the big points and they come nowhere then they are going to lose on points big-style.

    No-one think EBH could be in with a chance in the green jersey comp? His prep for the tour this year wasnt great, maybe another year and he will be consistently near the front in the bunch sprints and be able to get over the climbs to take some points that way. Not saying he'll do it but he could be team sky's biggest chance of success, especially if they beat Cav...

    Its quite difficult to start working out what is going to happen yet anyway because, as someone said earlier, it depends where on the stage it is put.
  • Homer JHomer J Posts: 932
    maybe they should scrap the points jersey and have one for the most stage wins?
  • TMRTMR Posts: 3,986
    Hushovd has promised to help Farrar win the Green jersey at the Tour next year. Do you think the Hushovd/Farrar combination can ever beat the Renshaw/Cavendish lead-out man team?

    No.

    Not ever.

    /thread
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,914
    Here's my thoughts:

    First up, just because a rider has been a good sprinter, it doesn't necessarily make him a good lead out man. At Garmin, Julian Dean has proved himself to be top quality. Is Thor better? Maybe, but I'd stick to Dean

    Now the Green Jersey. To win this you have to back one candidate. No split loyalties. Even if Thor picks up five or six mountain sprints (unlikely), he'll still be a long way behind the competition if he's not the top man for the sprints (which he shouldn't be). To be fair to Thor, he knows this and is at peace with it. Lampre could have the same conversation with Bole/Petacchi.

    Why are people even mentioning Hushovd? These days he's not even the best sprinter from Norway. And in the realm of Norwegian sprinters, he's not even the best climber of the sprinters (despite some people's attempt to paint him as the new Herrera). As someone pointed out, EBH is a bigger threat. If he went for it (and he won't) then Roche could be a threat. The same could be said of Gilbert (probably won't turn up) or Sagan (won't be picked).

    We don't know where the sprint points will be yet. Let's assume they are at about the halfway point. The mountain stages will probably have the same dynamics before. The break in mountain stages usually has more riders (10+ as opposed to 4 or 5), so the amount of points on offer will be minimal. I don't imagine Garmin, Lampre or Lotto will be chasing down breaks.

    So what does Cav do? Here's my tactical guide. Do everything the same as you have always done (i.e. don't chase the breaks, unless you are down on points). With one difference. Pick Matt Goss. He will be your 'intermediate sprint' guy - he'll lead you out for these, not Renshaw. At the IS you don't need a big lead out, all you have to do is get a good enough result, not to damage your chances. No after-burners, just what it takes. If someone goes full-bore, let them (unless you think you can't win the stage). If you're not there then Goss sprints for the points.

    Personally, I think the system works in Cavendish's favour. He's lost the last two jerseys because he screwed up on one or two stages. The new format gives him more chances to make up the deficit.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • SpaceJunkSpaceJunk Posts: 1,157
    Cavendish is the best.
  • TusherTusher Posts: 2,762
    I agree, Richard. When I first heard of this new rule, all I could think of was 'breakaways'. HTC just have to ensure that they have a man in the breakaway, and leave Cav for the sprint finish.

    Of course, it all depends where the intermediate sprints are going to be.
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