TDF not winnable without doping ?
northernneil
Posts: 1,549
Comments
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It's rather silly to say that. If no one doped - would no one win? 8)
Average speed is not the best indicator when you consider that the peleton probably spends at least half of every day just cruising along before ramping it up to chase down the day;s break. When you have a team like Columbia that is constantly driving the bunch onwards on flat days to get Cav to the line - the speeds go up.
However - it is my personal belief that it is nearly impossible for a human being to consistently perform at that level, day-in and day-out for 3 weeks without some sort of help.0 -
Bernard Kohl has been saying the same thing since he got caught.
I'm not pretending cycling doesn't still has a massive problem, but to tarnish every single rider in the top 20 with the same sweeping statement smacks of sour grapes to me. Perhaps he just can't accept that HE was not good enough to compete at the top level clean.0 -
Isn't he actually saying that as things currently stand, it is impossible to win the Tour without doping? Quote: "Maybe in 10 or 15 years, you can win (without drugs) if we work with the anti-doping movement."
As to whether everyone in the top 20 is doping, I guess that one average, it just might be the case that 'only' 18 or 19 out of the top 20 are.
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Cycling has a history of doping, the doping gives a big benefit and its possible to get round the tests*. Therefore its likely that doping is taking place and since the effect is big it seems likely that at least some of the people at the top are doping. Thats the way i see it anyway.
*although the ability to do this may well be changing.0 -
translation and journalistic licence may account for the confusion but I reckon his point is that there are enough riders/teams that are doped and have enough of a margin over the clean teams that it's not possible for a clean rider to win, therefore the winner is going to be up to their eyeballs.
too many climbers are too close to the TT specialists, and no one has an off day..."I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
--Jens Voight0 -
If we assume that Wiggins is clean and came 4th despite a lack of climbing ability then surely it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that someone with more natural climbing talent and a strong team could win the Tour even now whilst being clean?0
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Pross wrote:If we assume that Wiggins is clean and came 4th despite a lack of climbing ability then surely it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that someone with more natural climbing talent and a strong team could win the Tour even now whilst being clean?
Cadel has finished 2nd twice, hasn't he? That's also assuming he's on the level. It wasn't possible 5 years ago. It's possible now.Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0 -
Yep but Wiggins was an even less likely candidate so it just goes to show with the right route and a strong team it is definately possible and I think it is poor reasoning for people to say it can't be won without doping therefore anyone wanting to win must dope and the danger of that rationale is that anyone winning it, no matter how squeaky clean their background, will get accused of doping too as they have achieved the impossible. I'm as cycnical as the next man but that is something I would really hate to see.0
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I think Paul Kimmage might have been the first to argue that "anyone better than me must be doping", despite, as he says in his book, not training in the rain, not training in the wind, not training if his girlfriend was in town, quitting early season races after 20km etc.0
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Roy Sentjes just made a similar commentary, saying that it's almost impossible to get into the top 10 of the TdF without doping - http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrenn ... r_contadornorthernneil wrote:
It's for a good part the grudge of those actually caught, for a part those same old dopers being stuck in the past when everyone was at it, and to some degree unfortunately still true0 -
You can win it without doping but the problem is if loads of people are doping then you have to dope to stay with them or accept you won't win it.
Lemond refused to dope and so would rather quit than finish 30 mins down all the time.
I wonder if the UCI \ ASO could work with some sports scientists to find out exactly what is humanly possible and then design a course to those limits, but I think that may be something too hard to do.
If everyone dopes the strongest should still win. If no one dopes the strongest will definitely win0 -
Gingerflash wrote:I think Paul Kimmage might have been the first to argue that "anyone better than me must be doping", despite, as he says in his book, not training in the rain, not training in the wind, not training if his girlfriend was in town, quitting early season races after 20km etc.
Kimmage was at it himself anyway."A cyclist has nothing to lose but his chain"
PTP Runner Up 20150 -
sherer wrote:You can win it without doping but the problem is if loads of people are doping then you have to dope to stay with them or accept you won't win it.
Lemond refused to dope and so would rather quit than finish 30 mins down all the time.
I wonder if the UCI \ ASO could work with some sports scientists to find out exactly what is humanly possible and then design a course to those limits, but I think that may be something too hard to do.
If everyone dopes the strongest should still win. If no one dopes the strongest will definitely win
Getting through any TdF course is humanly possible. I could do it, eventually. It's the riders that make it hard - and of course the doped riders that make it only inhumanly possible. So its a chicken and egg problem; you ease the course, dopers go quicker, clean guys lose. You clean the sport, riders go slower, clean guys win, no need to change parcours.___________________
Strava is not Zen.0 -
sherer wrote:
If everyone dopes the strongest should still win. If no one dopes the strongest will definitely win
That's just not true. EPO for example will produce quite different 'benefits' for different people. If everyone dopes the most likely winner is the one who responds the most to the doping. As an aside, Matt Rendell's book The Death of Marco Pantani is very good on this point if you're interested.0 -
dougzz wrote:sherer wrote:
If everyone dopes the strongest should still win. If no one dopes the strongest will definitely win
That's just not true. EPO for example will produce quite different 'benefits' for different people. If everyone dopes the most likely winner is the one who responds the most to the doping. As an aside, Matt Rendell's book The Death of Marco Pantani is very good on this point if you're interested.
That's why I had a "should" when I mentioned doping and said with no doping the strongest definitely will win0 -
sherer wrote:I wonder if the UCI \ ASO could work with some sports scientists to find out exactly what is humanly possible and then design a course to those limits, but I think that may be something too hard to do.
Firstly, its the riders that make the race, not the course. Make it easier and the dopers just ride it faster, the clean riders still behind.
I think an exceptional clean rider, with a very strong team, could still win - with a smidgeon of luck and some good form. But he cant win if other exceptional riders with strong teams good luck and good form are also on the juice.
As has been discussed on many threads, we don't know what riders clean basslines are. We don't know which are mediocre riders that have pushed to the top twenty by doping, we don't know who the exceptional riders pushed down by dopers are. We make a few educated guesses, mixed with maybe a bit of wishful thinking.
It's my belief that the very top riders are exceptional riders who dope. After that it's anyone's guess if we're dealing with exceptional clean riders or merely very good doped riders.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
(Kohl) was under the impression he was never going to be caught and he was reassured by his people that he was never going to be caught.
This is what I've been banging on about for ages. If you do believe that everyone else is at it then you're naturally inclined to believe that it's only the stupid and sloppy that get caught. While we need to acknowledge the scale of the problem, talk like this only reinforces the belief of young riders that doping is their only way forward.
That's why harsher punishments don't work, nobody thinks they'll have to pay them.
Instead I'd like to see a doping control program that really does convince riders they'll get caught. Maybe split the samples into 4, for retro testing in a few years with new techniques. Increase the amount of tests. Allow for greater leniency for those that fess up and name names. Maybe extend the first ban to mandatory three years, but knock off a year for anyone that pleads guilty without asking for the b sample to be opened. Improve intelligence gathering and the ability for anonymous informants to come forward.
If we were really having a war on drugs we should have a few spies planted in the teams and medical practices. We should be running false information - calling up riders and telling them they'd tested positive - "would you like to confess and have your ban shelved"? :twisted:Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
ShockedSoShocked wrote:Gingerflash wrote:I think Paul Kimmage might have been the first to argue that "anyone better than me must be doping", despite, as he says in his book, not training in the rain, not training in the wind, not training if his girlfriend was in town, quitting early season races after 20km etc.
Kimmage was at it himself anyway.
Barely, a time or 3, no more than that.0 -
People drink tea/caffeine to wake up, Riders would use speed/amphetamines to keep the gears up. In a way, the two are alike. Even the Energy drinks are based on the same kind of principles.
The EPO is just a whole different critter along with Blood doping.
I guess an earnest clean rider could make a game effort at defeating someone using amphetamines and like sorts of chemicals.0 -
Pokerface wrote:
However - it is my personal belief that it is nearly impossible for a human being to consistently perform at that level, day-in and day-out for 3 weeks without some sort of help.
I have often wondered this.
i have ridden 17 days with out a break 160km+ a day at 28kph including the alps. I was buggered.. if someone offered me recovery products i probably would have taken them
2-4man working group "credit card tour" 1991 (we split up some days)
included sitting in with lads we meet on the road. I spent one day split from the rest riding with Massimo Ghirotto so you could claim I had second hand pharmaceutical assistance i guess (it was hard hanging on) but that would be defamatory so I withdraw the observation
i think its doable to race the tour avg lower30's to 35's how they avoid the bad days so readily strikes me as the biggest annoyance to us spectators.
could i have done a tour route back then in a sizable bunch...maybe high-mid 20's yeah maybe just maybe not but on paper not out of sight
but on the road felt like a different planet.
if Garmin and FDJ (maybe others)are the real deal then yeah its doable i suspect if the entire peloton was clean the GC would yo yo as there would be more collapses...evans and gilbert are exciting because they do crack into pieces.. when they go its not a done deal.
I think there is the potential for a new if not THE golden age in cycling if it cleans up.
I think we are on the verge of it I really do. even if the majority are still at it."If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
mididoctors wrote:I have often wondered this.
i have ridden 17 days with out a break 160km+ a day at 28kph including the alps. I was buggered.. if someone offered me recovery products i probably would have taken them
2-4man working group "credit card tour" 1991 (we split up some days)
included sitting in with lads we meet on the road. I spent one day split from the rest riding with Massimo Ghirotto so you could claim I had second hand pharmaceutical assistance i guess (it was hard hanging on) but that would be defamatory so I withdraw the observation
i think its doable to race the tour avg lower30's to 35's how they avoid the bad days so readily strikes me as the biggest annoyance to us spectators.
could i have done a tour route back then in a sizable bunch...maybe high-mid 20's yeah maybe just maybe not but on paper not out of sight
but on the road felt like a different planet.
if Garmin and FDJ (maybe others)are the real deal then yeah its doable i suspect if the entire peloton was clean the GC would yo yo as there would be more collapses...evans and gilbert are exciting because they do crack into pieces.. when they go its not a done deal.
I think there is the potential for a new if not THE golden age in cycling if it cleans up.
I think we are on the verge of it I really do. even if the majority are still at it.
Good post0 -
I think Midi has hit the nail on the head. It is possible (unless we are saying that every rider who finishes the Tour is doped then it has to be surely?) but speeds would be lower and riders would have off days. It would lead to far less predictable racing which is good for fans but obviously less so for teams and sponsors hence the pressure in some quarters to dope.0
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This is probably the best thread about doping that I have read. If we believe that Basso was clean this year(his blood samples seem normal in reagrds to falling red blood cells count and all test results negative) then its possible that there are clean riders capable of winning the TDF. Wiggins blood showed similar results with his 4th place last year.
I am the ultimate sceptic when it come to doping but for some reason have always hoped the Cadel Evans is clean and he came close to winning twice.Brian B.0 -
and also not winnable without a HELL OF A LOT OF TALENT and HARDWORK!!!!0
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Dave_1 wrote:and also not winnable without a HELL OF A LOT OF TALENT and HARDWORK!!!!
Just wreck my dreams, why don't you?
the right course of injections and it's mine I tell you.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
Blog is a good reference too.0
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Basso is now also coached by Sassi. He apparently arranges testing on his riders that includes the carbon-monoxide test to detect autologous blood transfusions. Not sure how much of a "clean guarantee" this is, but it's got to be worth more than the standard "I've passed every dope test" line.Brian B wrote:If we believe that Basso was clean this year(his blood samples seem normal in reagrds to falling red blood cells count and all test results negative) then its possible that there are clean riders capable of winning the TDF.
http://theinnerring.blogspot.com/2010/1 ... -dust.html0
