OT Media talking us into another slab of recession

SimonAH

Couldn't believe it this morning - slow news day so the BBC breakfast news spent most of it's efforts spouting doom and gloom about a second wump of recession to come.

Has nobody learnt from last time? Bang on about it and it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy :evil:

I've watched a lovely, steady, month-on-month recovery since about November last year from my customer base (engineering).

Optomism please BBC, Anti-Rants please media in general. Let's not talk ourselves into more recession because there's not much in the way of news today - bloody irresponsible IMHO.

rjsterry

Media? Irresponsible?

No, no, no. They are 'leading the agenda'.

CiB

The BBC trying to talk down the new Govt's plans and wheeling out an endless stream of doom sayers & glum merchants? Never, surely?

It's amazing how many people are willing to appear on the media claiming that the whole country will dissolve into dust if the state doesn't continue to lift as much money as possible out of our pockets and spend it for us. Cos only state spending counts right?

To ACPO, Bob Crowe, bearded lesbian Gaurdian columnists et al, please do us all a favour and disappear for 5 years, then come back and see how good your predictions were.

notsoblue

Well to be fair to the BBC, its pretty likely. With all the cuts in public spending, industries that rely heavily on public money (public, private or third sector), a second slump isn't far fetched.

I guess thats the problem with everyone working in the service industry.

DonDaddyD

If Inflation doesn't drop. The cuts do result in mass job losses. The private sector doesn't employ enough people. Taxes continually rise.

Then it would seem that we are heading for another recession.

One that will be felt in the public sector more so this time.

I must phone my first ever full time manager - who served as somewhat a mentor to me - he said that recessions aren't normally felt in the public sector until after they've ended in the private sector. On double dips he said it normally hits the public sector harder the second time round. Right so far - I'm not complaining about anything, I'm not arguing if its undeserved or not.

bigmat

Lots of reports in the construction industry suggest that we're on the cusp of the double dip of the recession. That's trade periodicals, with no agenda to push or copy to sell. Just the facts.

Huge cuts in government spending will have a huge impact, on both the public and private sector. To the extent that it is necessary it needs to be handled very carefully, and I'd hate to see any political ideology screwing it up for us all.

DonDaddyD

Cuts had to happen.

They just didn't need to come as quickly, visibly and as brutally as the Tories have delivered them.

In their drive for reform and to drum home their rhetoric, they seem to forget that all these implied cuts cause everyone to panic, tighten their belts, stop spending, stop creating job, stop expanding etc. A contract with my employer is up in air because the other party wants to take out 15million - you know because of future/potential/implied "cuts", that sort of thing.

So even if the cuts don't happen and the money is there people are too afraid to act for fear of a recession and thus a recession comes.

zanes

Our (engineering) company thought like the OPs until the last two months work growth/shrinkage figures came out. Double dip *is* coming in some way shape or form.

rjsterry

CiB wrote:

The BBC trying to talk down the new Govt's plans and wheeling out an endless stream of doom sayers & glum merchants? Never, surely?

It's amazing how many people are willing to appear on the media claiming that the whole country will dissolve into dust if the state doesn't continue to lift as much money as possible out of our pockets and spend it for us. Cos only state spending counts right?

To ACPO, Bob Crowe, bearded lesbian Gaurdian columnists et al, please do us all a favour and disappear for 5 years, then come back and see how good your predictions were.

As I posted on another thread, it's not just the unions or the 'public sector' (as if that were a clearly defined thing) that will suffer from cuts in public spending. Large chunks of public spending are already contracted out to private companies (Connaught is an example already in trouble). The BBC were interviewing the head of a Chamber of Commerce (either Birmingham or Manchester, I forget which) who seemed genuinely worried, so I don't think painting this as some lefty conspiracy to discredit the Conservatives is very accurate (I'm sure there are some lefties trying to do just that, though).

rjsterry

MatHammond wrote:

Lots of reports in the construction industry suggest that we're on the cusp of the double dip of the recession. That's trade periodicals, with no agenda to push or copy to sell. Just the facts.

Huge cuts in government spending will have a huge impact, on both the public and private sector. To the extent that it is necessary it needs to be handled very carefully, and I'd hate to see any political ideology screwing it up for us all.

You must be reading some different construction trade periodicals from me. It varies, but most very definitely have an agenda.

DonDaddyD

If there is a double dip, will house prices fall?

TheStone

DonDaddyD wrote:

If there is a double dip, will house prices fall?

Yes. Oddly, house prices tend to lead the recession in this country as most of the borrowing in based on equity in housing.

My feeling is that we never really left the recession. Below 1% gdp growth when the govt
is borrowing and spending 20% of gdp is not a recovery.

bigmat

rjsterry wrote:

MatHammond wrote:

Lots of reports in the construction industry suggest that we're on the cusp of the double dip of the recession. That's trade periodicals, with no agenda to push or copy to sell. Just the facts.

Huge cuts in government spending will have a huge impact, on both the public and private sector. To the extent that it is necessary it needs to be handled very carefully, and I'd hate to see any political ideology screwing it up for us all.

You must be reading some different construction trade periodicals from me. It varies, but most very definitely have an agenda.

Yes, fair enough, but not the "scaremongering, making up problems to sell more copy" type agenda that the OP was concerned about. IMO.

rjsterry

MatHammond wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

MatHammond wrote:

Lots of reports in the construction industry suggest that we're on the cusp of the double dip of the recession. That's trade periodicals, with no agenda to push or copy to sell. Just the facts.

Huge cuts in government spending will have a huge impact, on both the public and private sector. To the extent that it is necessary it needs to be handled very carefully, and I'd hate to see any political ideology screwing it up for us all.

You must be reading some different construction trade periodicals from me. It varies, but most very definitely have an agenda.

Yes, fair enough, but not the "scaremongering, making up problems to sell more copy" type agenda that the OP was concerned about. IMO.

True, although one in particular does have a tendency to go a bit Daily Mail.

davmaggs

In many ways the recession didn't happen the same way that it may have done in previous times. Employment stayed at 90% and repossesions or business closures haven't soared. Life carried on for most people.

However a lot of that achieved by 'printing' £200bn of currency and by many people going part-time and taking wage cuts. Even the current cuts aren't a high percentage of spending and only deviate slightly from Gordon Brown's ones. The second dip might actually be the recession proper as you can only print so much

I saw one economist writing that it may be better to accept the big recession, but short and sharp rather stagger on stop start for 10 years only for it to happen when the money finally runs out.

DonDaddyD

I just want house prices to come down.

Aidy

Is this post at all related to your "I've just bought a house" post?

rjsterry

DonDaddyD wrote:

I just want house prices to come down.

Not wanting to wee on your bonfire, but London house prices are rising still. It's the rest of the country where they are falling. National house price statistics (what gets reported) don't tell you very much about what is happening locally.

Aidy

DonDaddyD wrote:

I just want house prices to come down.

It's not as simple as that.

The available money for lending will also decrease, making credit and mortgages harder to get. Which will mean larger deposits and higher interest rates.

House prices falling doesn't necessarily make houses more affordable.

TheStone

rjsterry wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

I just want house prices to come down.

Not wanting to wee on your bonfire, but London house prices are rising still. It's the rest of the country where they are falling. National house price statistics (what gets reported) don't tell you very much about what is happening locally.

Upto now, but only because the £200bn QE was effectively given to the banking industry.
Little appetite for a repeat (especially with inflation ticking higher), so the next leg down
could be led by London.

DonDaddyD

Feck. may as well end it all now then.

<<Bikeradar cheers>>

daviesee

Whatever gave anyone the impression that the recession was over?

Long way to go yet :evil:

And..... as it is global, we may be able to make it have less impact but we can't control it

rjsterry

TheStone wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

I just want house prices to come down.

Not wanting to wee on your bonfire, but London house prices are rising still. It's the rest of the country where they are falling. National house price statistics (what gets reported) don't tell you very much about what is happening locally.

Upto now, but only because the £200bn QE was effectively given to the banking industry.
Little appetite for a repeat (especially with inflation ticking higher), so the next leg down
could be led by London.

Mind you, the massive slow down in house building means that there is even more restriction of supply than previously. The 'crane count' is pretty high at the moment, which is good (for the construction industry).

DonDaddyD

The Morden/South Wimbledon/Colliers Wood - not quite Mitcham area seems reasonably priced....

This recession so far has had mixed effects on me. But then I've been moving my career along so some changes were inevitable.