Schleck - very nearly

Mettan

Andy missed out by a whisker this year - but for chain-gate (for me) the most likely scenario -

Andy gets a small gap at the top - they catch him easily on the descent - most likely result - Andy keeps his 31 sec advantage.

Andy crests the top with Bert and the others - most likely result - Andy keeps his 31 sec advantage.

Either way, Andy keeps his 31 sec advantage.

Given that Contador never looked like beating Andy in the mountains, the most likely scenario is that we arrive at ther Tourmalet with Andy having a 31 sec advantage. That's highly likely imho.... Even given Contador's current form (good enough to be in the top 2 in the World, regardless of what he says....), Contador still feels confident that he can overhaul 31 secs in the TT (and quite rightly) - so, does he really need to go all out on the Tourmalet ??? (he feels he can pull that back in the TT) - in addition, Andy has comfortably matched him in the Mountains throughout (for many people Andy has looked better....) - I don't find it convincing at all that Contador would have gained anything on the Tourmalet had he gone into it 31 secs behind - after a short period, Andy and Bert had already pulled out a 1:20 lead on Sanchez/Menchov etc..... - are we saying that Contador is somehow going to get another 30-60 secs on the Tourmalet - they were at their limit as it stood.... - Bert attacked once, and Andy covered comfortably - where was Bert's super-duper magical performance going to come from??? - there's nothing in Bert's recent performance which suggests that he could gain time on Andy on the Tourmalet - so, for me, the most likely scenario after the Tourmalet would have been Andy keeping his 31 sec advantage going into the TT - Andy is in Yellow, he starts last, and for me he would have probably won the TDF - we've seen how close Andy got in the TT (as it played out yesterday) - As last man, in Yellow, I think he could have done it.

Just all imho.

Kléber

You forget everyone was made to wait on the road to Spa because the Schlecks and others went down. Contador was in a chasing group and Menchov was with the leaders.

Mettan

I know that Kleber - I'm just looking at how the race panned out in the latter stages.

RichN95.

The most likely scenario is that Schleck would have attacked on another mountain and his chain would have come off again.

Kléber

His chain came off on the final stage and he was forced to swap bikes on the way to the Champs Elysees.

mididoctors

Kléber wrote:

His chain came off on the final stage and he was forced to swap bikes on the way to the Champs Elysees.

PR stunt by andy to niggle contador

surely

Mettan

Is Schleck racing the Vuelta this year ?

mididoctors

It is not inconceivable the tourmalet stage would have been roughly the same except contador would have sprinted for the finish... and finger banged a few extra secs


in which case contador would of had a problem in the tt but I think still won by a handful of secs

less than 30'

Pokerface

You also have to consider if Contador would have been as tired for the TT if Andy hadn't hammered him up the Tourmalet. Had Andy not been trying to get that time back, they may have ridden up it at a more reasonable pace and this might have given Contador the advantage in the TT.



Playing "what if" is a never-ending game.

gsk82

i can't remember as far back as stage 3 but have heard that contador was caught up in the frank shleck crash and that cancelara put the hammer down at that point. is that true?

i wouldn't say that shleck looked any better on the tourmalet than contador

Coriander

Does Andy Schleck have enough of the killer instinct to beat a good friend that he obvioulsy feels Contador to be? I was surprised how easily he was mollified by Contador's apology after 'chaingate'. My personal view is, marginally, that it was OK for AC to attack then, though I do waiver, but Andy was obviously furious afterwards and he needed, IMO, to nurture and cultivate that anger for longer than he did.

Also, in the view of people here, was the absence of Frank a help or a hinderance for Andy? Again, I think it was probably a help, while maybe not physically in terms of there being nobody to pull him up a mountain, emotionally it probably was - it released him and freed him to worry just about himself.

Mettan

mididoctors wrote:

It is not inconceivable the tourmalet stage would have been roughly the same except contador would have sprinted for the finish... and finger banged a few extra secs

Agreed - I could see Bert getting 5-10 secs that way - would have been a fascinating TT.

Abdoujaparov

Pokerface wrote:

Playing "what if" is a never-ending game.

Yep, definitely a bit of selective 'ifs' and 'buts' on this thread. Just think, if Armstrong had a significantly higher power to weight ratio he'd have won the tour! How unlucky was he?!?!

paulcuthbert

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Pokerface wrote:

Playing "what if" is a never-ending game.

Yep, definitely a bit of selective 'ifs' and 'buts' on this thread. Just think, if Armstrong had a significantly higher power to weight ratio he'd have won the tour! How unlucky was he?!?!

Phil Liggett mentioned if he hadn't punctured on the cobbles/crashed a few times on the stage to Avoriaz, he'd definitely have been a contender for the overall.

Not too sure about that...

Abdoujaparov

paulcuthbert wrote:

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Pokerface wrote:

Playing "what if" is a never-ending game.

Yep, definitely a bit of selective 'ifs' and 'buts' on this thread. Just think, if Armstrong had a significantly higher power to weight ratio he'd have won the tour! How unlucky was he?!?!

Phil Liggett mentioned if he hadn't punctured on the cobbles/crashed a few times on the stage to Avoriaz, he'd definitely have been a contender for the overall.

Not too sure about that...

Got a lot of time for Phil Liggett, but sometimes you get the impression they just make it up as they go along! (must be tough filling so much air time)

paulcuthbert

Abdoujaparov wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Pokerface wrote:

Playing "what if" is a never-ending game.

Yep, definitely a bit of selective 'ifs' and 'buts' on this thread. Just think, if Armstrong had a significantly higher power to weight ratio he'd have won the tour! How unlucky was he?!?!

Phil Liggett mentioned if he hadn't punctured on the cobbles/crashed a few times on the stage to Avoriaz, he'd definitely have been a contender for the overall.

Not too sure about that...

Got a lot of time for Phil Liggett, but sometimes you get the impression they just make it up as they go along! (must be tough filling so much air time)

He's also pandering to a U.S. audience on Versus, which probably doesn't help.

I reckon Lance could have done better without all the bad luck - but I doubt he'd have been a contender. He's too old now. Even when he sat at the back of that breakaway all the way to the finish, he couldn't outdo the younger riders.

It's a shame, but.. c'est la vie!

takethehighroad

Mettan wrote:

Is Schleck racing the Vuelta this year ?

In support of Frank, apparently.

StanwaySteve62

OK, just a curve ball but if AS wanted to win what is wrong with his team trying to help him win the last stage by 32 seconds.
I'm over simplyfying and I know the last stage is actually a media sham but it gets my point over ( i think)

takethehighroad

Pedro Delgado attacked Stephen Roche in '87 (for 50 seconds) and it was looked down on by the peloton.

Cadel didn't even attack for 23 seconds in '07.

If it was less than 10, maybe we would have seen it but it would have to agreed before that they would fight for it. The last stage is a procession, plain and simple.

RichN95.

StanwaySteve62 wrote:

OK, just a curve ball but if AS wanted to win what is wrong with his team trying to help him win the last stage by 32 seconds.
I'm over simplyfying and I know the last stage is actually a media sham but it gets my point over ( i think)

Two reasons:

1. If he thought an escape was likely, Contador would just sit on Schleck's wheel all stage, making it hard to get away. Joop Zoetemelk (who was minutes down) tried to do it to Hinault once and he followed him and won the stage (two minutes ahead of the bunch).

2. Even with Cancellara, O'Grady and Voigt for company, I wouldn't fancy Schleck's chances of staying ahead of the combined forces of HTC and Astana (and others like Sky). The Champs is no friend of breakaways.

StanwaySteve62

I do get it, but WHY not at least get it a crack?

RichN95.

StanwaySteve62 wrote:

I do get it, but WHY not at least get it a crack?

The same reason I don't chat up lapdancers. Experience suggests that it's just going to be a lot of effort with no reward, with a good chance of getting hurt, and you're better of just enjoying the day.

StanwaySteve62

good answer but the payment terms are different

richa

What chance Schleck next year? Assuming they don't have another cobbles stage where AS gained 1:13, can Schleck gain enough in the mountains to cover the time he loses in the TTs. On this years performance no. Chaingate aside, he took no time of AC in the mountains.

frenchfighter

My thoughts on this issue are:

On the cobbles, Frank crashed and held the majority of the peloton up. Cancellara was on the front and drilled it for Andy, putting roughly 50 secs into Menchov, 1.10 into Contador and 2 into Sanchez.

At Spa, much has been mentioned already - Andy would have no chance after that. He was lucky Contador told his team not to ride and that Cancellara was in yellow and has a lot of sway. It was good for the following stages that there wasn't a large gap between Contador and Schleck.

For the event in question, Andy attacked and dropped his chain. He didn't crash or fall off. Contador was bridigng up and continued with his pace as did all the others. Sammy and Menchov were able to catch Contador - if he was going a bloc I doubt they would have so he likely slowed down some when he saw Schleck was not in his view behind. I understand that there is adrenaline flowing through Andy but I still think he should have been able to put his chain on by himself and quicker.

After the stage, France 2 got the opinions of several people including Hinault, Fignon and Jalabert. Not one said Contador was wrong. All said that it was 'le course'.

He got booed that stage and on the one after Gerald Holtz (France 2 after stage man) said it was wrong and asked Andy to face the camera and say it was wrong and they should stop - they did.

I'm guessing Contador would have won many admirers if he had stopped completely stopped even though he didn't need to. From a viewer perspective it was great as Andy had to chase hard on the descent which was exciting.

Andy and Alberto are good friends and Andy was quite clear that he hadn't a problem with what Contador's actions.

As a few have said, what ifs aren't much use. Also, that time gain changed the dymanic and tactics - had Contador not gained that time, then I imagine he would have actually attacked (annoyed he didn't really) on the Tourmalet.

An interesting thing which was pointed out by Fignon, after commentating that Andy's TT position was bad and would mean he would lose quite a bit of time from the wind, was that a UCI rule forbids Andy from having a more stretched out position. So effectively the stupid UCI are putting Schleck and other riders with long torsos at a disadvantage. I haven't checked this rule or anything and am simply assuming Fignon is right.

takethehighroad

Contador's aero position on Saturday was VERY long, with some saying that may be why he looked like he was constantly pushing himself back on his saddle



His hands are almost over the front of the front wheel

dougzz

frenchfighter wrote:

As a few have said, what ifs aren't much use. Also, that time gain changed the dymanic and tactics - had Contador not gained that time, then I imagine he would have actually attacked (annoyed he didn't really) on the Tourmalet.

Frenchie, glad you're back We missed your presumed sterling defence of Bertie during 'Chaingate'

I think your man Bertie was cooked and didn't have it in him to attack, he put in one dig and Schleck was all over it. Doesn't AC's TT suggest the Tourmalet had done for him? Whilst Schleck's TT was decent, it was really the relatively poor one from AC that made it close.

Arkibal

dougzz wrote:

I think your man Bertie was cooked and didn't have it in him to attack, he put in one dig and Schleck was all over it. Doesn't AC's TT suggest the Tourmalet had done for him? Whilst Schleck's TT was decent, it was really the relatively poor one from AC that made it close.

not disagreeing with you, but when has AC done a good TT on a flat, +50km TT?

FJS

The chain incident is blown out of proportion - it's not, IMHO, the main moment Andy Schleck lost the Tour. For me, with hindsight, the most significant moment where he lost was the stage to Morzine. That was clearly a difficult day for Contador, and Schleck gained 10 seconds on him, but only by attacking in the last 700 meters. Navarro was gone from about 3kms out; Kreuziger, Van den Broeck and Gesink all attacked with around 2 kms to go, but if Andy Schleck would have attacked much, much earlier it's likely he would have gained much more than 10 seconds. At that time nobody expected Contador to have a bad day on the first mountain stage, but with what we know now, it was the most significant lost opportunity for Schleck to put time into Contador.

iainf72

FJS - What do you make of Guimards statements that Contador suffered up to Morzine because he tried to respond to RK / VDB / RG's attacks when really they were irrelevant. Guimard reckons if he hadn't bothered Schleck would've taken no time.

So while Schleck maybe should've tried attacking earlier it's not clear whether he would've shed Contador.

FJS

iainf72 wrote:

FJS - What do you make of Guimards statements that Contador suffered up to Morzine because he tried to respond to RK / VDB / RG's attacks when really they were irrelevant. Guimard reckons if he hadn't bothered Schleck would've taken no time.

So while Schleck maybe should've tried attacking earlier it's not clear whether he would've shed Contador.

I'm not convinced; and Guimard has been Schleck's DS, not Bertie's. Perhaps it was a mistake of Contador to follow those attacks, but I don't think looking at Bertie and Schleck's later dominance those can have taken too much out of him. Contador on a good day could easily have answered to those attacks AND stay with Schleck. I reckon it's a pretty safe bet that that stage was one of the weak days Contador says he's had. In interviews Schlek said after that stage that they had a 'plan'. suggesting the late attack was no coincidence and they were happy for Evans to wear the jersey for the moment. Of course we'll never know whether and how much he would have gained on Beryie had he attacked earlier, but it should be a lesson for next year that he really has to attack Bertie on every mountain stage if he wants to win.