How much time does Andy Schleck need to win the TDF?

donrhummy

How much time does he need prior to the TT?

paulcuthbert

I think 1:45, and then he'll do a Sastre and do the best time trial of his life and snatch it.

You know what they say about being in yellow...

Hope so anyway!

donrhummy

paulcuthbert wrote:

I think 1:45, and then he'll do a Sastre and do the best time trial of his life and snatch it.

You know what they say about being in yellow...

Hope so anyway!

I want to say 1:45 but given his TT in the prologue, his TT last year and Contador's TT ability, I think it's going to have to be north of 2 minutes.

Also, I strongly disagree but Andy himself says he only needs 1 minute!
http://velonews.competitor.com/2010/07/ ... 289_130289

paulcuthbert

donrhummy wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I think 1:45, and then he'll do a Sastre and do the best time trial of his life and snatch it.

You know what they say about being in yellow...

Hope so anyway!

I want to say 1:45 but given his TT in the prologue, his TT last year and Contador's TT ability, I think it's going to have to be north of 2 minutes.

When you compare Contador to his form in the Tour last year, he doesn't look as sharp. He can't get rid of Schleck in the mountains like before, and he's looked like he's been struggling to catch up when Schleck goes full gas. Add to this the fact that he couldn't shake a Radioshack domestique in the Dauphine, and you can see signs he's not as strong. Plus, he was beaten by an out-of-form, 38-year old Armstrong in the Prologue - and not that it means a lot, Shleck is Luxembourg national champion.

I think it's stacked in favour of Schleck.

RichN95.

I'd agree with Mr Cuthbert - about 1.45, maybe 2 minutes.

I'm not sure Contador is in as good a form as he was last year. He also tends not to be quite as good at the 50+km flat TTs (like this year's) as he is in the 30-40km TTs with a hill (like last year's). Schleck has been working on his TTing and we haven't really see him do one properly this season (the Prologue is a different type of TT). It's possible that he's lulling AC into a false sense of security.

donrhummy

paulcuthbert wrote:

donrhummy wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I think 1:45, and then he'll do a Sastre and do the best time trial of his life and snatch it.

You know what they say about being in yellow...

Hope so anyway!

I want to say 1:45 but given his TT in the prologue, his TT last year and Contador's TT ability, I think it's going to have to be north of 2 minutes.

When you compare Contador to his form in the Tour last year, he doesn't look as sharp. He can't get rid of Schleck in the mountains like before, and he's looked like he's been struggling to catch up when Schleck goes full gas. Add to this the fact that he couldn't shake a Radioshack domestique in the Dauphine, and you can see signs he's not as strong. Plus, he was beaten by an out-of-form, 38-year old Armstrong in the Prologue - and not that it means a lot, Shleck is Luxembourg national champion.

I think it's stacked in favour of Schleck.

Yeah but that's NOT because Contador's off from last year, it's because Andy improved that much. To see it, look at the fact that Contador has ridden away from everyone else, pretty much at will. The problem is, when he's doing that, Andy's usually ahead of him.

paulcuthbert

donrhummy wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

donrhummy wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I think 1:45, and then he'll do a Sastre and do the best time trial of his life and snatch it.

You know what they say about being in yellow...

Hope so anyway!

I want to say 1:45 but given his TT in the prologue, his TT last year and Contador's TT ability, I think it's going to have to be north of 2 minutes.

When you compare Contador to his form in the Tour last year, he doesn't look as sharp. He can't get rid of Schleck in the mountains like before, and he's looked like he's been struggling to catch up when Schleck goes full gas. Add to this the fact that he couldn't shake a Radioshack domestique in the Dauphine, and you can see signs he's not as strong. Plus, he was beaten by an out-of-form, 38-year old Armstrong in the Prologue - and not that it means a lot, Shleck is Luxembourg national champion.

I think it's stacked in favour of Schleck.

Yeah but that's NOT because Contador's off from last year, it's because Andy improved that much. To see it, look at the fact that Contador has ridden away from everyone else, pretty much at will. The problem is, when he's doing that, Andy's usually ahead of him.

Somebody agreeing with me?? Bloody 'ell how times change!!

Anyways - back to donrhummy... On the stage to Avoriaz, I think it looked like Contador was having trouble escaping the group. And he didn't follow Schleck when he went to win the stage. Although it was only a few seconds behind, it said more than the seconds did.

I still think Schleck can do it. He'll drop Contador on the Tourmalet (or attack him if he has a mechanical or a crash!) and then do the time trial of his life in the yellow jersey on Saturday. I think there are going to be seconds in it - much less than a minute will be the winning margin, either way.

donrhummy

I'm surprised at how many people think he'll need under a minute. Do you really think he's improved that much in the TT?

rick_chasey

donrhummy wrote:

I'm surprised at how many people think he'll need under a minute. Do you really think he's improved that much in the TT?

It's probably a combination of Schleck improving and Contador not being on the same form he was last year.

Garry H

There's a lot of talk about Contador not being able to shake off Shleck, but I've not seen much evidence of the other way around either. They both seem dead even in the hills to me. Reckon he'll need about 1 minute going into the TT.

Mettan

I'm hoping there's no rain tomorow - if its dry, Andy has a good chance of putting time into Contador. He's up for it big-time. Yes, 1 minute would probably be enough to hold Bert off in the TT. In that scenario Andy would ride the TT of his life - if he's still 8 secs behind going into the TT he won't.

paulcuthbert

Rick Chasey wrote:

donrhummy wrote:

I'm surprised at how many people think he'll need under a minute. Do you really think he's improved that much in the TT?

It's probably a combination of Schleck improving and Contador not being on the same form he was last year.

+1

Hit the nail on the head