Questions

pb21

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?

How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?

What about Evans, when will he crack?

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?

What outcome is likely for Wiggins?

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?

Anonymous

CAAD9

frenchfighter

pb21 wrote:

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?

How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?

What about Evans, when will he crack?

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?

What outcome is likely for Wiggins?

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?

- Maybe maybe not. All we have seen so far is Andy put a few seconds into all the GC riders by attacking in the last km for the stage win. Doing that and holding a margin from 5k or more is a whole different story. Contador was also 2nd wheel most of the climb so had more wind. In addition, Contador clearly sat up (said he was waiting for the others to come past). He was the first to cover the attack (not Andy's) and did that no problem.

Also note that at no point last year did Andy distance Contador in the mountains. It was actually the other way round. Completely switching that around this year would be quite something.

- Maybe 3mins, I'd be more comfortable with 5. Last year he lost 1.45 in a 40km TT. This prologue he lost a lot (although he said that was poor for him). Contador doesn't like the very long TTs whereas Schleck says he has good endurance.

- The climbs are not very steep compared to the Giro for instance and Cadel should hang in there. He will either have a monster bad day (don't think so) or will lose small on all the mountains which will add up. He can TT very well. He said he wanted to honour the WC jersey and is doing a great job so far - much respect to Cadel.

- I don't care as long as he doesn't try and disrupt Contador.

- Top 10 is possible although I wouldn't be surprised not to see him make it. He will be able to ride a great TT I reckon so as long as he doesn't lose 1-2 mins every mountain stage he should be good.

- Whole other thread on that.

rick_chasey

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?
Should vary day to day.


How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT? At least 2 minutes, more likely nearer 3.

What about Evans, when will he crack?

When it gets steeper and longer, but he can afford to lose a bit of time on Andy, less so on Contador.

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win? Stage win with a bit of bottle carrying for fun.

What outcome is likely for Wiggins? Averageness. Top 10? Behind Van den Broeck.

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!? Wiggins felt good on the the climb they rinsed, didn't on the climb he suffered on.

Bernardus

1. No
2. 2 minutes
3. 3rd week
4. Stage
5. 8th in GC, 2nd on the final TT
6. Failing

So, what did I win?

wicked

Give Dereck at wheelsmith a call

Gingerflash

"Contador clearly sat up (said he was waiting for the others to come past"

When Schleck attached, Contador stood up for a few pedal strokes, seemed to shake his head and sat back down. He didn't look like he was waiting for anyone, he just didn't have it in him.

But that was just one stage. Schleck will have to keep attacking him in the mountains to gain maybe 3 minutes for the TT.

Yesterday might have given him the belief that he can put some time into Contador on the climbs. It was only Schleck's 2nd pro win so maybe he'll take a lot of confidence from it. He looked pretty comfortable all the way to Avoriaz.

Pross

- Maybe maybe not. All we have seen so far is Andy put a few seconds into all the GC riders by attacking in the last km for the stage win. Doing that and holding a margin from 5k or more is a whole different story. Contador was also 2nd wheel most of the climb so had more wind. In addition, Contador clearly sat up (said he was waiting for the others to come past). He was the first to cover the attack (not Andy's) and did that no problem.

No he didn't, he clearly couldn't go with the attack. Shame Schleck left it so late. Besides, he wouldn't have sat up as he's a true champion and only ever rides to win.

pb21

Yeah I dont think contador could go with Schleck. It was near the end but I cant imagine he would let him go and get any seconds if there was anything he could do about it. I thought that Contador was going to be clearly unbeatable but its not looking quite like that at the moment.

I remember the TT that Satre pulled out back in 08 at the end of the tour. If shleck can do that then yeah 2 minutes should be enough.

As for Evans he just needs to stick in there.

Its looking very interesting...

sherer

Gingerflash wrote:

"Contador clearly sat up (said he was waiting for the others to come past"

When Schleck attached, Contador stood up for a few pedal strokes, seemed to shake his head and sat back down. He didn't look like he was waiting for anyone, he just didn't have it in him.

But that was just one stage. Schleck will have to keep attacking him in the mountains to gain maybe 3 minutes for the TT.

Yesterday might have given him the belief that he can put some time into Contador on the climbs. It was only Schleck's 2nd pro win so maybe he'll take a lot of confidence from it. He looked pretty comfortable all the way to Avoriaz.

I'm sure he has won more than that. He won Leige last year plus he was the Luxembourg RR champ and is a 2 time TT champ of Luxembourg that is at least 4 wins.

Read during the Giro that Sastre only has 10 wins which seemed very low to me too

frenchfighter

Andy has won the Lux ITT twice and the RR once. Not a lot of competition there. He has won two stages of the Sachsen Tour and one of the Tour of Lux.

Wins of note are of course Liege and this stage. Other than that he doesn't have any other wins. Not very much really for someone of his calibre but then he doesn't race hard all year like a Contador or Cadel.

I guess he could have added the Ventoux stage last year maybe if he hadn't been working for his bro.

afx237vi

Andy Schleck has won...

1 stage of the 2010 TDF
1 Liege-Bastogne-Liege
1 Luxembourg RR title
2 Luxembourg TT titles
2 stages of the 2006 Sachsen-Tour
1 stage of the 2009 Tour de Luxembourg

e2a: Or what Frenchie said.

rick_chasey

Won the white jersy in the Giro coming second overall at a stupidly young age.

He's an absolute mega talent, who doesn't seem to need too much riding to get into some good form.

sherer

it does amaze me sometimes how few wins some of these riders have.

I think the white jersey in the TdF would count as a win as would the young riders jersey in the Giro.

Don't forget the Luxembourg TT had 4 riders in it this year

rapid_uphill

I cant see Contador getting that minute back from Shleck.

Pross

sherer wrote:

it does amaze me sometimes how few wins some of these riders have.

I think the white jersey in the TdF would count as a win as would the young riders jersey in the Giro.

Don't forget the Luxembourg TT had 4 riders in it this year

It's the consequence of people riding for the GC in a Grand Tour. Modern wisdom seems to be that you can't ride many other races unless they are for training. Bertie seems to be the exception to this. The GC contenders don't even go for stage wins although these tend to come as a by product.

RichN95.

Pross wrote:

It's the consequence of people riding for the GC in a Grand Tour. Modern wisdom seems to be that you can't ride many other races unless they are for training. Bertie seems to be the exception to this. The GC contenders don't even go for stage wins although these tend to come as a by product.

It's not just the GC riders though. For example, take Alessandro Ballan, a triumph of quality over quantity.

He's only won 10 races, but they include the World Championship, Tour of Flanders, Vatterfall Cyclassic, a Vuelta stage and the Tour of Poland.

calvjones

Rick Chasey wrote:

Won the white jersy in the Giro coming second overall at a stupidly young age.

He's an absolute mega talent, who doesn't seem to need too much riding to get into some good form.

Ah, yes.... My PTP high spot that...

stagehopper

Given the very hard and hot nature of the first week I think it's premature to formulate conclusions about anyone within 3 minutes on GC.

dave_1

pb21 wrote:

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?

How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?

What about Evans, when will he crack?

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?

What outcome is likely for Wiggins?

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?

Why is the race so close and looking likely to be so close? Maybe the bio-passport and landis insights are helping? Evans could do it I think. You have to admire the way he's kept that rainbow jersey to the forfront of races from March to July. Lemond was the last to win the TDF with the rainbow jersey on his back...20 years on, I hope Evans repeats that

Pokerface

Dave_1 wrote:

Why is the race so close and looking likely to be so close?

Maybe it's just because it's early in the race and we've only had one tough mountain stage so far. No one has really tried to blow the race apart yet.

One (more) tough stage could drastically change the GC. But looking forward to some competitive racing ahead and hopefully a closer race than we've had for a while. Would be nice to see Contador beat - especially if it's by Evans!

off the back

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?
- based on what we have seen yes. It is a long time since we saw Contador destroy folks in mtns. Crit Int n Dauphine he did not have it! Also yesterday, no question if he could have gone after Schleck he would have! He didn't cause he couldn't.
How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?
It is a long TT so guessing 3min.
What about Evans, when will he crack?
Unfortunatly I think he will He came out of a very very tough Giro and be suprised to see any of the main GC riders there make the podium in teh tour.
What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?
Both but defo a stage (or two)
What outcome is likely for Wiggins?
Top 10 maybe. People always said route this year a lot tougher n he is less suited. So just seeing that playing out. Guess JV is happy now
What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?
Thought they could play with the big boys. As Kelly said on Sat on eurosport about EBH efforts - this is not the Paris Nice, this is the tour de france!

Abdoujaparov

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?

Probably not.

How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?

Two minutes would give him a fighting chance. Three minutes would give him a great chance. A lot depends on their condition at that stage of the race - not just their general TT ability

What about Evans, when will he crack?

He'll lose a bit of time to Contador and Schleck on the climb to Ax 3 Domaines and a bit more on the Tourmalet mnt top finish. Other than that, he might not lose much in the mountains, but a lot depends on how much the giro took out of him.

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?

He'll help Leipheimer a bit and also go for a stage win

What outcome is likely for Wiggins?

reckon he'll improve a little and might sneak a top ten

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?

Setting a good pace to discourage attacks that would have made wiggo blow earlier

dave_1

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Is Schleck stronger than Contador in the mountains?

Probably not.

How much time would Schleck need to be ahead of Contador before the TT?

Two minutes would give him a fighting chance. Three minutes would give him a great chance. A lot depends on their condition at that stage of the race - not just their general TT ability

What about Evans, when will he crack?

He'll lose a bit of time to Contador and Schleck on the climb to Ax 3 Domaines and a bit more on the Tourmalet mnt top finish. Other than that, he might not lose much in the mountains, but a lot depends on how much the giro took out of him.

What is Armstrong’s game plan now, pure domestique for Leipheimer or will he go for a stage win?

He'll help Leipheimer a bit and also go for a stage win

What outcome is likely for Wiggins?

reckon he'll improve a little and might sneak a top ten

What the hell were Sky upto yesterday!?

Setting a good pace to discourage attacks that would have made wiggo blow earlier

I am probably optimistic but am going to predict LA will be in the thick of mountain battle as I believe his crashes had real impact on him yesterday. Is the polka dot jersey out of reach? or a tourmalet stage win? Levi in 5th in Paris isn't worth so much

RichN95.

Dave_1 wrote:

I am probably optimistic but am going to predict LA will be in the thick of mountain battle as I believe his crashes had real impact on him yesterday. Is the polka dot jersey out of reach? or a tourmalet stage win? Levi in 5th in Paris isn't worth so much

While the Polka dots aren't out of reach, you really have to go looking for them, and I don't think he'll do that. I reckon he'll win a stage though, but not the Tourmalet.

dave_1

RichN95 wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

I am probably optimistic but am going to predict LA will be in the thick of mountain battle as I believe his crashes had real impact on him yesterday. Is the polka dot jersey out of reach? or a tourmalet stage win? Levi in 5th in Paris isn't worth so much

While the Polka dots aren't out of reach, you really have to go looking for them, and I don't think he'll do that. I reckon he'll win a stage though, but not the Tourmalet.

LA could still decide who loses the TDF. I think Contador's Dauphine form was less than impressive...his TT a shocker and his Alpe win slowish by comparison and really, he went back on his training story and raced the Alpe to his max

unixnerd

I reckon he'll win a stage though, but not the Tourmalet.

I certainly hope so, be nice to see him get something on his final outing.

Is he planning to stop road racing altogether? I imagine he'll still do a bit of mtb racing?

frenchfighter

“Andy looked at his limit,” said Kreuziger

calvjones

frenchfighter wrote:

“Andy looked at his limit,” said Kreuziger

Amazing how Roman could see that from looking at Andy's @rse 50 feet ahead of him...

frenchfighter

Well he spent the whole climb being able to look at him which is a much better indication than a short effort in 800m. Being able to ride fast in the last 800m doesn't mean you can ride fast for 5-10km.