Friday / Jura / Alps

iainf72

Any thoughts on how it's going to pan out?

Given the chance, I think The Shack will try something tomorrow. Long stage, up and down terrain - If people weren't paying attention they'd look to capitalise.

Saturday is an interesting one. It's not massively hard but I expect some of the guys who've lost a bit of time will want to make the race hard. Could suit some tough racing but it could be a pile of bollocks like that stage Haussler won last year.

Sunday. Bertie will want to scare everyone into submission. But I'd not be surprised to see Szymd on the front shelling people off the back. Basso and Sastre will be looking to make up time

Tuesday : Depends who comes out of rest day well. Cadel could be set for a good ride.

A couple of GC guys will probably be eliminated.

Big questions for me are : Is Andy Schleck climbing well enough, has Armstrong improved since TdS, what can Wiggins do and is Basso going to climb better than those guys.

I expect Cadel and Contador to go well. Cadel in yellow.

Kléber

Both Saturday and Sunday are not really hard days. The finish to Les Rousses is not hard and the previous climbs are steady. Good for a breakaway but the GC candidates should find it easy. Same for Sunday. The Ramaz is a nasty climb in places but it's short, the descent afterwards is quite tricky and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy. Tuesday's the real mountain day but sans summit finish.

That's my take, what do others think?

stagehopper

Not sure Shack will attack tomorrow - think Saturday's their day. Problem they've got is they've all lost time on the major contenders: Armstrong and his psuedo-GC team mates Kloden, Leipheimer, Brajkovic and Horner. Has to severely compromise their ability to do anything.

andyp

Do Radioshack have a plan B? They've used the same formula for all their previous GT wins, and why change it if it works for you, so haven't ever had to look at alternative ways of putting their leader into a winning position.

Armstrong can't beat Contador by outclimbing him, nor can he expect to claw back any time in the final TT, so he's got to come up with something else.

Doobz

andyp wrote:

Do Radioshack have a plan B? They've used the same formula for all their previous GT wins, and why change it if it works for you, so haven't ever had to look at alternative ways of putting their leader into a winning position.

Armstrong can't beat Contador by outclimbing him, nor can he expect to claw back any time in the final TT, so he's got to come up with something else.

Doping scandals seem to always work

iainf72

The overwhelming impression I got was that the plan was to have some time in hand over Contador after the cobbles. And the Shack didn't look as good as people thought they might.

Armstrong has talking in the press about doing something in the wind but I think they fooled Bertie once, not likely to happen again.

Even today, after Bertie giving the Hog and Lance their watches, Lance has been saying Bertie is the greatest guy to ever swing a leg over a bike. PR in full effect.

FJS

Kléber wrote:

Both Saturday and Sunday are not really hard days. The finish to Les Rousses is not hard and the previous climbs are steady. Good for a breakaway but the GC candidates should find it easy. Same for Sunday. The Ramaz is a nasty climb in places but it's short, the descent afterwards is quite tricky and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy. Tuesday's the real mountain day but sans summit finish.

That's my take, what do others think?

Seems about right to me. Saturday won't do anything for the GC, unless thrugh a long breakaway, like Rasmussen used to do in the Alsace. Sunday will make a difference, it's a proper enough summit finish for that, but not hard enough for significant time differences for most; a bit a la Verbier last year.

Doobz

iainf72 wrote:

The overwhelming impression I got was that the plan was to have some time in hand over Contador after the cobbles. And the Shack didn't look as good as people thought they might.

Armstrong has talking in the press about doing something in the wind but I think they fooled Bertie once, not likely to happen again.

Even today, after Bertie giving the Hog and Lance their watches, Lance has been saying Bertie is the greatest guy to ever swing a leg over a bike. PR in full effect.

Lance isn't the only rider here trying to gain time on the other GC guys etc. I bet the other guys in the GC race are loving the whole AC vs LA thing as it takes the pressure and eyes off them and "possibly" do something in the wind on the both of them.

Personally I am not sure if Basso and Evans are going to be able to sustain the speeds in the hills. They have the Giro in their legs and they really rode very hard. Basso is looking very learn though. A lot leaner then he was in the Giro.

I am presuming Sky are going to want to get the yellow jersey, even just for a few days.. I am pretty sure a few teams will not be too bothered about that as it takes the pressure of them when it comes to the mountains..

Cadel I think is going to be the one to watch but have a funny feeling he is going to fade as I am not sure he is going to have a team that can support him..

I just cant look past AC and Vino - They are by far the strongest Leader and Domestique so to speak

RichN95.

First of all Saturday's stage will be won from a breakaway which will include Egoi Martinez, Matt Lloyd, maybe Cunego. Basically anyone with Polka Dot aspirations.

In the GC standings, there's still too many GC candidates to be manageable for Contador and/or Schleck, so they're going to want to whittle it down a lot. So they'll want to set a high pace on the two last climbs of each day. On Saturday just to put some tiredness in the legs and then Sunday going really hard to see who's got it and who hasn't. At least that's what I'd do if I was DS. It needs to be like the Andorra stage last year. No big time gaps, but the contenders boiled down to a basic eight or nine.

The complication here is RadioShack, who only know how to ride the mountains one way - on the front. Now, they'll go at Armstrong pace and we can't be sure whether that will be fast or slow. If it's slow Astana/Saxo may fall into the trap of being a little lazy and letting RS do the work, which will mean that there are too many riders close to AC/AS come Tuesday or Pyrenees, leaving them open to multiple attacks - particularly from Liquigas.

There's a possibility of a Cardiff boy in yellow on Saturday night (usually they're in casualty)

takethehighroad

I can see Geraint sticking with them on Saturday and everyone seeing a chance to avoid having yellow for a while.

One stage will be sheeite, because one of the stages they build up to be great always is.

One of the GC fellas will go out the back on the stage to Morzine, possibly one of those from the Giro (Sastre, Evans, Basso)

We'll see on Sunday night who had the best predictions.

deejay

Kléber wrote:

and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy.

Nice one but take a deep breath in Morzine and get the gears sorted before you turn right to climb to the Ski Station of Avoriaz.
From memory I would think a similar climb as 2009 TDF, Verbier.
Memory again is something like 38 minutes to climb. (Ugrumov - Gwiss 37 ?)

eh

I dunno there are so many riders that can 'mess' things up its hard to say what the heck will happen, no one seems to be mentioning Vino or Wiggins above. It maybe that Sky take over the USPS/Disco role and drive hard into the bottom of the climbs. But I think Sky and RS problem will be they have steady climbing riders in Wiggins, LA, Kloden etc. so Contrador, Schleck and maybe a Liquigas rider will try and break it up with hard accelerations.

Oh I dunno more I think about the more I haven't a flipping clue, oh except Sastre will lose time :idea:

Gez is worth a watch. He got over the climbs in the Dauphine OK, could he be the big surprise of the Tour?

frenchfighter

Bunch sprint on today and an 8-man breakaway for Saturday.

Sunday I would expect to see Basso asking Liquigas to drill it if he is feeling good so that coming over Ramaz, some people are shelled, the descent not being long enough to regain contact.

Contador not being one to rest easy, I think he will want to test his legs on the climb and put max 30 secs into a fair few people, with a fair few staying with him including VDB, Andy, Basso and Evans. Cadel to take the yellow jersey.

I reckon Cancellara could hold on but the team would prefer to let the jersey go. That being said, I also don't think Contador will go too hard to beat Cadel into the jersey if possible because he would rather not have to have his team manage it.

mididoctors

cant see the shack getting up the road...

should be a furious battle to get into the polka dot break on sat which may well fail to make the distance being caught by a fast moving elite group of 20-40 riders hooning up the final climb with someone getting a small advantage out of the bunch

hopefully G is still there for the jersey

too many good tempo squads for one of them not to try and take it on

sunday?

really not sure

blazing_saddles

I am trying to keep my weekend expectations low, in the hope that the racing exceeds these expectations.
Saturday could see a few of the contenders losing a handful of seconds and Sunday might expose the fake contenders.
How the main contenders go about extracting time, I know not.
I suspect Shack are struggling with the same conundrum, so will use..............quelle surprise.................the train. Maybe a Horner burst like last years Giro?

Morzine Avoriaz looks more like an Arcalis than a Verbier to me.

Kléber

deejay wrote:

Kléber wrote:

and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy.

Nice one but take a deep breath in Morzine and get the gears sorted before you turn right to climb to the Ski Station of Avoriaz.
From memory I would think a similar climb as 2009 TDF, Verbier.
Memory again is something like 38 minutes to climb. (Ugrumov - Gwiss 37 ?)

Yes that's what I meant, I know there's a climb It's that the climb is more a steady roll up than a tough summit finish. Here's the profile:


Note the 11% moment, it could be a springboard for an attack... but then you get sections at 5% soon after, big ring territory for a powerful rider. Last year's finish to Verbier had lots of 8% but only for 6km or so; Avoriaz is not steep but longer.

Hopefully we get a selection but it could flatter, for example a rider who might struggle on a longer and steeper climb might be there. It should suit Wiggo quite nicely, so long as the pace is even.

BikingBernie

Kléber wrote:

Both Saturday and Sunday are not really hard days.. The Ramaz is a nasty climb in places but it's short, the descent afterwards is quite tricky and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy...That's my take, what do others think?

As ever, it all depend on how hard they decide to go. After all, even a 100m vertical climb can prove decisive in a race like the Tour of Flanders. The Ramaz really begins just after St-Jeaire at 532m and tops out at 1619m, that's well over 1000m of climbing. Then the climb up to Avioriaz adds another 900m. Pity they are getting to les Gets via Fry and the D902 - they could have gone over the Col de l'Encrenaz on the D328 instead, adding another 300m of climbing on one of my favourite roads.

Here is the profile of the Col de la Ramaz:



On the other hand they will all probably ride tempo until the last 5km of the climb to Avioriaz...

deejay

Kléber wrote:

It should suit Wiggo quite nicely, so long as the pace is even.

Should have run another TT up there to suit him then.
I thought my post would get the researchers at it and so I stuck my neck out. :twisted:
Havn't seen the guillotine yet so try again with comparisons with Mende airport.

Kléber

BikingBernie wrote:

they could have gone over the Col de l'Encrenaz on the D328 instead, adding another 300m of climbing on one of my favourite roads.

I thought the same, the organisers clearly didn't want to make the stage too selective to begin with. The descent towards Les Gets has a series of nasty hairpins with steep roads, one to watch if it's wet.

BikingBernie

Kléber wrote:

The descent towards Les Gets has a series of nasty hairpins with steep roads, one to watch if it's wet.

The local forecast is for rain Sunday afternoon, and a relatively cool 26 degrees C.

thomasmc

BikingBernie wrote:

Kléber wrote:

Both Saturday and Sunday are not really hard days.. The Ramaz is a nasty climb in places but it's short, the descent afterwards is quite tricky and then there's the finish to Morzine which is relatively easy...That's my take, what do others think?

As ever, it all depend on how hard they decide to go. After all, even a 100m vertical climb can prove decisive in a race like the Tour of Flanders. The Ramaz really begins just after St-Jeaire at 532m and tops out at 1619m, that's well over 1000m of climbing. Then the climb up to Avioriaz adds another 900m. Pity they are getting to les Gets via Fry and the D902 - they could have gone over the Col de l'Encrenaz on the D328 instead, adding another 300m of climbing on one of my favourite roads.

Here is the profile of the Col de la Ramaz:



On the other hand they will all probably ride tempo until the last 5km of the climb to Avioriaz...

Can someone please contact the real Biking Bernie, its looks like someone has hacked into his bikeradar a/c and is impersonating him (nowhere in the above post is lance mentioned!)

frenchfighter

If Lance cannot gain a time advantage by normal means then he may resort to other tactics:

Pross

Bunch sprint today. Saturday, an early run out for the favourites leading to a fairly big select group. Thomas to stay with them and win the sprint to take yellow. Sunday, a break to go with Gadret winning while the favourites all mark each other.

BikingBernie

thomasmc wrote:

Can someone please contact the real Biking Bernie, its looks like someone has hacked into his bikeradar a/c and is impersonating him (nowhere in the above post is lance mentioned!)

The 'old' BB is still here. Perhaps only just though, going by what happened on Wednesday. I was spending a few days camping and getting out on the bike, and decided to take a last quick spin up the Col de la Colombiere out of Grand Bornand. After about 8km I was finding it hard to breathe (it was over 30 degrees) and I decided to stop for a moment under some shade. Anyhow to cut a long story short the problem was that I was having a pretty bad Tachycardia attack. (Supraventricular - it has happened before but I have seen a cardiologist and apparently there is no other underlying issue with my heart). This time I could not control it and passed out, passersby called the SAMU and, despite my protestations, I ended up being helicoptered to Annecy hospital. Of course, after extensive tests they said I was fine. Not what I was planning at all...

iainf72

Ooof. Bit of a shocker there Bernie. At least you're ok.

Are you going to come clean on your EPO use now?

Pross

Did you get them to chuck a few packed cells in while you were there?

Hope you've got good medical cover!!

Kléber

BikingBernie wrote:

Anyhow to cut a long story short the problem was that I was having a pretty bad Tachycardia attack. (Supraventricular - it has happened before but I have seen a cardiologist and apparently there is no other underlying issue with my heart)

I'm tempted to raise the spectre of riders getting heart problems, eg when at the dentist etc and making causal links

But I won't and wish you well. There are worse places to be than Annecy and hope all settles down for you.

thomasmc

Hope you will be fit to run up the mountain next week alongside "you know who" with as Langer Dan I think suggested a giant picture of the "graft" held up over your head

Glad to hear you are over your ordeal!

BikingBernie

iainf72 wrote:

Ooof. Bit of a shocker there Bernie. At least you're ok.

Are you going to come clean on your EPO use now?

Yes, I could see that one coming.

SVT is basically a 'electrical' problem, rather than a 'blocked artery' one. That said the symptoms can be much the same. I shouldn't have told the SAMU guys about the pain in my chest and chronic toothache! If it happens again (it is about 2 years since last blacked out when cycling because of this issue) I will try to find a nice quiet hedge to lay behind until I recover. Worst thing was that I was panicking and almost began fighting with the SAMU guys when they were strapping me into the stretcher, but apparently such anxiety attacks are also common symptoms.

It all makes my payments to the CMU (The French health care system) seem like money well spent.

deejay

BikingBernie wrote:

. The Ramaz really begins just after St-Jeaire at 532m and tops out at 1619m, that's well over 1000m of climbing. Then the climb up to Avioriaz adds another 900m. Pity they are getting to les Gets via Fry and the D902 - they could have gone over the Col de l'Encrenaz on the D328 instead, adding another 300m of climbing on one of my favourite roads.

Here is the profile of the Col de la Ramaz:



On the other hand they will all probably ride tempo until the last 5km of the climb to Avioriaz...

No,Ramaz will do fine by me. I was up there when Mayo was being escorted by Lancy but he still got the stage and the Race. (oh yeh the gendarmare motorbikies giving me a lecture on Piano's or something )
Ramaz and Avoriaz look and feel nothing like the bits of paper profiles.
Pity about Northern France a couple of weeks later.

BB you sound like the problems of Kim Kirchen.
I wish you good health.

frenchfighter

One thing is for sure, this guy is game and thinks he can take the jersey.