BBC Bladdy Weather Service

prj45

So this evening before I left for home the next hour's forecast was saying light clouds but no indication of rain (in the forecast or on the satellite view) BUT IT WAS RAINING WHEN I GOT OUT THE DOOR!

How can it get the weather different from what's actually happening outside AT THE TIME?

Gah!

Got grit all over my shiny new bike which I spent an hour trying to get off when I got home, but my chain still sounds like a tank track!

jonnyboy77

I subscribed to the daily metcheck email at http://www.metcheck.com - so far its been pretty reliable, but weather forecasting is nothing more than glorified guesswork!

Jon

rolf_f

Weather forecasting is anything other than guesswork glorified or otherwise. What it does have is a high degree of uncertainty dependant on the nature of the forecast.

For example, if a frontal system is forecast in 2 days, the forecast will probably say something like; heavy rain Wednesday followed by nice weather on Thursday. If the wind speed changes only a little, the delay to the front can easily mean that Wednesday is fine and Thursday is wet. Perception is that the forecast was 100% wrong but infact it was actually correct in all but timing. Obviously, that is the important bit but I find by sticking to the 3 day forecasts the forecasts are usually pretty close.

The only forecasts worth a look though are those based on Met Office work (which the BBC ones are)- they are probably the best in the world. The alternative forecasters, dug out when the Met Office score a PR own goal by expecting dumb reporters to understand certainty, are glorified wavers of seaweed.

Usually, hopefully, any Met Office based forecast you see should have a time indicator for when it was last updated so if it is wrong for the time you are out, hopefully you'll find it hadn't been updated since the morning!

zrazzle

clouding over again today. Didn't bother bringing the waterproofs today again either, I think I actually refuse to bring waterproofs now, as my measly protest against our s88t english weather. hmmf.

jonnyboy77

For more details on the guessing game, read this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/

FWIW I have found Metcheck to be reliable, since it seems to be updated on a regular basis and allows for specific location checks/forecasts/guesses.

I don't commute far enough to worry too much about the weather, if the sun is shining I ride in shorts & short sleeves, if its raining I ride in shorts & short sleeves (at this time of year).

- Jon

MonkeyMonster

jonnyboy77 wrote:

For more details on the guessing game, read this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/

FWIW I have found Metcheck to be reliable, since it seems to be updated on a regular basis and allows for specific location checks/forecasts/guesses.

I don't commute far enough to worry too much about the weather, if the sun is shining I ride in shorts & short sleeves, if its raining I ride in shorts & short sleeves (at this time of year).

- Jon

I've found metcheck quite busted for local region since last week - nothing displays...

edit: normally very trustworthy and I use it all the time!

TommyEss

Does it really matter what the website says - look out the window - are there big dark clouds on the horizon, and is the wind blowing them towards you or away?

There's your answer.

Open your eyes!

MonkeyMonster

TommyEss wrote:

Does it really matter what the website says - look out the window - are there big dark clouds on the horizon, and is the wind blowing them towards you or away?

There's your answer.

Open your eyes!

Hush there grumpy chops. I want to know what the weather *might* be like sunday...

Kieran_Burns

TommyEss

I'll make you one of those origami things we had as kids if you like - you know the ones, pick a colour, pick a number, blah blah blah...

"UNSETTLED!!!"

MonkeyMonster

TommyEss wrote:

I'll make you one of those origami things we had as kids if you like - you know the ones, pick a colour, pick a number, blah blah blah...

"UNSETTLED!!!"

that's just unleashed a scary trip down memory lane... but given I'm doing butt all at work and merely counting days now I shall stay a while.

BentMikey

I thought Metcheck was run/owned by a convicted paedophile? I don't think it's a reliable service anyway, and I watch several weather services daily.

Your best bet is to look at a rain radar, which will give snap shots of rain every half hour for the last 6 hours:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Or look out the window.

nich

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ pretty good but not really a forecast as such

TommyEss

BentMikey wrote:

I thought Metcheck was run/owned by a convicted paedophile? I don't think it's a reliable service anyway, and I watch several weather services daily.

Your best bet is to look at a rain radar, which will give snap shots of rain every half hour for the last 6 hours:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Or look out the window.

"..and tonight we see a band of kiddy fiddlers moving in from the Atlantic, bringing with them persistent bursts of public outrage, lynchings and overreactions..."

spen666

Kieran_Burns wrote:

stone gone: Alternative to Tornado is SCOUSER'S HAVE VISITED

prj45

Bloody hell, I start a thread on how the BBC weather can report it's not raining when it actually is raining, and we're discussing paedophiles and dissing scousers.

I might get a weather stone though...

Cleat Eastwood

I always read the weather forecasts from ten years ago....it was better weather then.

jonnyboy77

BentMikey wrote:

I thought Metcheck was run/owned by a convicted paedophile?

I wasn't aware of this - is this a substantiated claim? Or a headline plucked from the Daily Mail?

I've yet to find a weather site more useful than metcheck though, although as mentioned above it seems to be failing yesterday and today on local forecasts (no data).

- Jon

jonnyboy77

ok seems to be confirmed ... http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/news/year ... ticle.html

although this was at he end of 2008 ... so I don't know who runs metcheck now, I would assume not him?

- Jon